2026 CAULFIELD GUINEAS: Preview & Tips
2026 CAULFIELD GUINEAS DETAILS
DATE: Sunday October 10
VENUE: Caulfield
DISTANCE: 1600m
CONDITIONS: 3YO: Set Weights
PRIZE MONEY: $3 million
For 146 years the Caulfield Guineas has shaped the careers of future champions, and another rising star is set to stamp its authority on Australian racing's premier 3YO mile.
The Caulfield Guineas was first staged in 1881, with WHEATEAR winning the inaugural edition. The race has been contested at the mile throughout its entire history and was elevated to G1 status when Australia's grading system was introduced in 1979.
Notable winners include ANAMOE (2021), ALL TOO HARD (2012), LONHRO (2001), REDOUTE'S CHOICE (1999), MAHOGANY (1993), MANIKATO (1978), TULLOCH (1957) and AJAX (1937).
In 2021, the trifecta was filled by winners of the previous season's three major Australian G1 2YO races - ANAMOE (ATC Sires' Produce Stakes), CAPTIVANT (Champagne Stakes) and ARTORIUS (Blue Diamond Stakes) finishing first, second and third respectively.
2026 SPORTSBET CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 1600M
1 0X27 UNIT FIVE Thomas Stockdale (1) $19
2 X511 WARWOVEN Rachel King (6) $2.15
3 X742 TORNADO VALLEY William Pike (8) $34
4 1X75 TRON BOLT Craig Williams (11) $8.50
5 9X11 BLIND RAISE Blake Shinn (2) $3.50
6 X661 DIAMETER Jye Mcneil (9) $19
7 X340 CENTRAL EUROPE J McDonald (7) $15
8 1232 SOMETHINGS BURNIN B Melham (3) $23
9 3X24 WOLF GAP Ethan Brown (4) $16
10 3X36 SERAPHOX Declan Bates (10) $61
11 11 CALL ME COACH Mark Zahra (5) $29
NIC ASHMAN'S SPEED MAP ANALYSIS
"BLIND RAISE probably leads from the low draw but the likes of WARWOVEN/CENTRAL EUROPE went much harder in their 1400m lead-up. CENTRAL EUROPE probably looks for the outside lead spot/perhaps WARWOVEN happy to hand up if there's enough presssure.
"Can't go past WARWOVEN. We look for times and margins when finding winners and he won the Golden Rose in fast time and by a big margin. That race has provded 5 of the last 8 Guineas winners."
$100 WIN | WARWOVEN
THREE BIG WEEKENDS. JUST $14.25. Get the Works Burger for $4.75 a week for your first three weeks — 75% off. Join now for our bets, staking, Track Reports, Tip Sheets and G1 data through Caulfield Guineas, Caulfield Cup and Everest, plus Derby day and the Golden Eagle. GET THE WORKS BURGER and enter SPRING26 at checkout. Offer closes midday Saturday, 10 October, Sydney time. $19/week after the first three weeks. Cancel anytime. |
WHO'S HOT? — TRAINER/JOCKEY CHAT
Blake Shinn is in outstanding form, producing 19 winners from his last 100 rides with a 45% place strike rate. He has the second favourite BLIND RAISE.
Chris Waller's powerful stable continues to produce results, with 13 winners from his last 100 runners and a 36% place strike rate. Waller has 4 runners in the race including third favourite TRON BOLT.
Ciaron Maher has also been in solid form, recording 13 winners from his last 100 runners with an impressive 45% place strike rate. Maher has 3 contenders in the Guineas including $19 chance UNIT FIVE.
CAULFIELD GUINEAS TRENDS, STATISTICS + FAVOURITES RECORD
FAVOURITES DELIVER. WARWOVEN has history on his side: 14 favourites have won since 1991, including 4 of the last 8. None has saluted since GOLDEN MILE in 2022, but backing every favourite for $100 since 1991 would still leave you $356 ahead.
VALUE IS ALIVE. Four of the last 8 non-favourite winners started between $12 and $101. Eight of this year’s 11 runners are at double-figure odds.
INSIDE GATES RULE. Barriers 1 to 4 have produced 18 of the past 35 winners - a tick for UNIT FIVE, BLIND RAISE, SOMETHINGS BURNIN’ and WOLF GAP.
POSITION COUNTS. Eighteen winners in the past 32 years were in the first six at the 800m, including the last three. This year’s field of 11 is below the recent average of 14, putting tactics firmly in play.
LAST-START PLACINGS MATTER. Twenty-seven winners since 1991 placed at their previous start. Five of this year’s runners missed the placings last time, including third favourite TRON BOLT.
THE GOLDEN ROSE HOLDS THE KEY. It has supplied 5 of the last 8 winners, including AUTUMN BOY last year. Three runners come through it this year; four arrive via the Guineas Prelude.
1400M IS THE SWEET SPOT. Twenty-two of the past 35 winners had a 1400m lead-up, including 7 of the last 8. DIAMETER and SOMETHINGS BURNIN’ come back from 1600m.
THIRD OR FOURTH-UP FITS. Twenty of the past 35 winners were 3UP or 4UP. Ten of this year’s 11 runners fit that profile.
SERAPHOX’S NUMBER DROUGHT. Saddlecloth 10 hasn’t produced a winner in the past 35 years.
WHAT HISTORY SAYS WINS
✓ Top of market
✓ Barriers 1-4
✓ Placed last start
✓ 3UP or 4UP
2026 BEST FIT: 5. BLIND RAISE $3.75
BLIND RAISE appeals as a standout Caulfield Guineas contender, boasting the profile that has historically been associated with success in the race. He is prominently placed in the market, has drawn Barrier 2, comes off a last-start placing, and is perfectly positioned in his preparation 3UP after winning the Prelude last start. With all the key trends aligning in his favour, BLIND RAISE looks primed to give himself every chance of claiming Guineas glory.
2025 CAULFIELD GUINEAS RESULT
1ST AUTUMN BOY $4.20
2ND PLANET RED $31
3RD OBSERVER $20
GET THE TRACK REPORTS + BET SHEETS FOR EVERY METRO TRACK THIS SATURDAY VIA THE FREE TRIAL BELOW
Comments