TBF 2022 Cessnock Cup Ratings

Highest peak rating plus the best heavy track figures - here are 'The Beaten Favourite' numbers that count for Monday's Cessnock Cup.

TRACK: Heavy 10

WEATHER: Thunderstorms set to hit which could prove an issue for the meeting.

TRACKWALKER: Rail True and there's plenty of good ground off the fence suggesting the backmarkers will get their chance more than usual.

EARLY SPEED: Dragon Dream kicks up and holds the lead setting a soft tempo.

TBF RATINGS: The best peak figure over the past 12 months belongs to OUR CANDIDATE with an 88 when he finished 2nd in a high rating BM78 at Warwick Farm. His two runs either side of that peak rated 82 and 84 but his last three starts have rated below 80. LEFT REELING has run 82 and 84 at her past two starts but has been scratched.

The only time MYDEEL struck a fast tempo [enabling the chance to run a high rating] over a mile or beyond was two starts ago and he posted an 85 - the highest rated Heavy track performance in the race with OUR CANDIDATE next on 84.

The three horses mentioned above have a clear margin on the rest with DRAGON DREAM'S peak recently sitting at 79 but he is kindly weighted on 55kg.

Using our WFA Distance Rating system, and given he has 62kg, Our Candidate must rate 4pts better than Mydeel and 7pts better than Dragon Dream to beat them. We're happy to say Our Candidate could post 83, that means if Mydeel runs 79 or better he'll beat the topweight home. We're thinking Mydeel goes 80+ and therefore wins but will save on an Exacta with Our Candidate, Dragon Dream to win and Mydeel for 2nd.

TBF PINEAPPLE BET [$50]: $30 WIN MYDEEL $20 EXACTA 1,5/4 [2000%]

STATS FOR THE MEETING

JOCKEY WATCH: Aaron Bullock is 6 from 17 striking at 35% on the Beaumont track L365 days. When he combines with Paul Messara that figure jumps to 38%.

Good Luck!

The Beaten Favourite's review of Saturday's Cox Plate meeting will be online by 3pm Monday.