NRL 2026 - R16 Preview + Origin 2.

Here are the stats and predictions for the upcoming round of the NRL.

These are the notes I use for 2GB radio and other media gigs for NRL updates.

STATE OF ORIGIN II — WEDNESDAY 8:05PM @ MCG

The Blues have enjoyed plenty of success at the MCG, winning five of the six Origin matches played at the venue. Queensland's struggles in Melbourne are reflected on the scoreboard too, with the Maroons never scoring more than 20 points at the ground.

An interesting trend hangs over this series. The winner of Game I has failed to go on and win the series in each of the past two years. NSW have the opportunity to break that pattern and take a commanding lead heading to Game III.

TIP: BLUES TO WIN / MAROONS UNDER 21.5PTS $2.35

KNIGHTS V DRAGONS — FRIDAY 8:00PM @ McDONALD JONES STADIUM

The Dragons lead the overall record 30-16 and have dominated this fixture in Newcastle with an 18-6 advantage at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Recent form tells a very different story. Newcastle have won four of their last five games and scored at least 28 points in each of those victories. St George Illawarra have lost four of their last five and have managed more than 12 points only once during that period. On current form, the Knights look set to continue their climb.

TIP: KNIGHTS 13+ / MARZHEW ATS / YOUNG ATS $3.40

TIGERS V DOLPHINS — SATURDAY 3:00PM @ CAMPBELLTOWN STADIUM

The overall record is locked at 2-2, but all the momentum sits with the Dolphins. They have won five straight games and scored at least 30 points in every one of those victories.

The Tigers are battling at the other end of the spectrum, scoring more than 16 points just once in their last five matches. Campbelltown returns to the NRL spotlight for the first time in years, with the Tigers winning seven of their last nine games there before the venue's long hiatus.

TIP: DOLPHINS -2.5 / DOLPHINS OVER 30.5PTS $2.40

TITANS V PANTHERS — SATURDAY 5:30PM @ CBUS SUPER STADIUM

Penrith have dominated this matchup for years, leading the overall series 19-7 and holding a 9-4 record at CBUS Stadium. The Panthers have also won the last seven meetings between the clubs.

Dylan Edwards loves facing the Titans, scoring in each of his last three appearances against them. Thomas Jenkins has also found the line in both of his games against Gold Coast. The Panthers' dominance in this fixture is hard to ignore.

TIP: T JENKINS ATS / D EDWARDS ATS $2.80

SEA EAGLES V BULLDOGS — SATURDAY 7:35PM @ ACCOR STADIUM

Manly lead the overall battle 75-60 and hold a narrow 10-9 edge over Canterbury at Accor Stadium. They've also won four of the last five meetings between the clubs and arrive with four wins from their last five games this season.

The Bulldogs' attack has cooled considerably, scoring more than 16 points only once in their last five matches. Jason Saab has an excellent record against Canterbury, scoring in all three appearances for Manly against the Dogs.

TIP: MANLY / J SAAB ATS $2.25

WARRIORS V COWBOYS — SUNDAY 2:00PM @ CHRISTCHURCH

This is the first meeting between the clubs in Christchurch, but recent history strongly favours the Warriors. They lead the overall record 27-22 and have won the last four clashes against North Queensland.

One recurring trend is the Warriors' scoring range. In eight of the last 12 meetings between the clubs they have scored between 22 and 30 points, a profile that fits neatly with another strong home performance.

TIP: WARRIORS / WARRIORS TEAM TOTAL 21-30PTS $3.95

STORM V RAIDERS — SUNDAY 4:05PM @ AAMI PARK

Melbourne lead the overall series 38-18, but Canberra have actually enjoyed success at AAMI Park, holding an 8-7 advantage at the venue.

The Raiders proved earlier this year they can match the Storm, winning the previous meeting by four points. With Canberra continuing to improve and Melbourne often involved in tight contests against quality opposition, the line looks generous.

TIP: RAIDERS +8.5 / UNDER 50.5PTS $3.20

SHARKS V ROOSTERS — SUNDAY 6:15PM @ ALLIANZ STADIUM

The Roosters hold a commanding 66-38 lead overall and have won 14 of 24 meetings against Cronulla at Allianz Stadium. They've also won six of the last seven clashes played between Allianz and the SCG.

Daly Cherry-Evans has found the tryline in his last two games against the Sharks, including one appearance in Manly colours. If the Roosters continue their recent dominance in this fixture, he'll be heavily involved again.

TIP: ROOSTERS / DCE ATS $3.90