NRL 2026 - R17 Preview

Here are the stats and predictions for the upcoming round of the NRL.

These are the notes I use for 2GB radio and other media gigs for NRL updates.

EELS V RABBITOHS — THURSDAY 8:00PM @ COMMBANK STADIUM

South Sydney hold a commanding 78-56 lead in the rivalry and have won four of the last five meetings between the clubs. They've also enjoyed plenty of success at Commbank Stadium, winning four of their five appearances against Parramatta at the venue.

The Rabbitohs have consistently found points in this matchup, scoring fewer than 20 points just once in their last 10 games against the Eels. Parramatta, however, have been more competitive than recent results suggest, getting within six points in two of their last three defeats.

TIP: BUNNIES 1-12 $3.50

TITANS V BULLDOGS — FRIDAY 6:00PM @ CBUS SUPER STADIUM

Canterbury lead the overall record 14-12 and have won the last three meetings between the clubs. Gold Coast, though, have traditionally been difficult to beat at home, leading the ledger 7-3 at CBUS Stadium.

The Titans continue to struggle backing up a victory, losing their last eight matches immediately after a win. The Bulldogs' attack has also cooled, scoring more than 20 points only once in their last five games. With six of the last seven meetings at CBUS producing 50 points or fewer, another low-scoring affair looks likely.

TIP: DOGS / UNDER 50.5PTS $2.84

BRONCOS V ROOSTERS — FRIDAY 8:00PM @ SUNCORP STADIUM

Brisbane lead the overall series 33-29, but recent history heavily favours the Roosters. Sydney have won four of the last five meetings and arrive at Suncorp having won their last five games at the venue against the Broncos.

Brisbane's form is a major concern after six straight defeats. Interestingly, three of the last five meetings at Suncorp have produced total points between 41 and 50, a range that again looks a strong fit for this matchup.

TIP: ROOSTERS / TOTAL POINTS BETWEEN 41-50 $4.33

DOLPHINS V WARRIORS — SATURDAY 3:00PM @ SUNCORP STADIUM

The Warriors hold a narrow 5-4 edge overall, although the Dolphins have won two of the three meetings played at Suncorp Stadium.

This shapes as one of the games of the round. The Dolphins are the competition's form team, winning seven straight matches, while their defence has been equally impressive, conceding no more than 22 points in any of their last five games. The Warriors have been just as miserly, allowing no more than 20 points in each of their last five outings. Everything points to another close finish.

TIP: EITHER TEAM 1-12 $1.85

PANTHERS V COWBOYS — SATURDAY 5:30PM @ QLD COUNTRY BANK STADIUM

Penrith lead the overall battle 26-23, while the record in Townsville is locked at 2-2. The last meeting at Queensland Country Bank Stadium ended in a thrilling 30-30 draw.

The Cowboys have quietly become a thorn in Penrith's side, not losing to the Panthers since September 2023. North Queensland's attack has been steady rather than explosive, scoring between 12 and 20 points in four of their last five matches, which again points towards a tight contest.

TIP: EITHER TEAM 1-12/Under 50.5pts $3.70

MANLY V STORM — SATURDAY 7:35PM @ 4 PINES PARK

Melbourne hold a 27-19 advantage overall, but there's little between the clubs at Brookvale where Manly lead 13-12. The Sea Eagles have also won three of the last five meetings.

Points have flowed when these teams meet at 4 Pines, with three of the last four clashes producing 46 points or more. Manly also start quickly at home, leading at halftime in eight of their last nine matches at Brookvale. If they can jump the Storm early, they'll take some catching.

TIP: MANLY TO WIN FIRST HALF / MANLY / OVER 44.5PTS $2.71

DRAGONS V RAIDERS — SUNDAY 2:00PM @ GIO STADIUM

St George Illawarra have won just one of their last 18 matches, while Canberra arrive in shaky form themselves having lost four of their last five.

The Raiders dominate this rivalry, leading 26-14 overall, 16-4 at GIO Stadium and winning four of the last five meetings. Despite that, these games have been incredibly tight, with each of the last five clashes decided by 10 points or fewer.

TIP: EITHER TEAM 1-12 $1.98/ Under 48.5pts

KNIGHTS V TIGERS — SUNDAY 4:05PM @ McDONALD JONES STADIUM

Newcastle lead the overall record 22-19 and hold a narrow 12-10 advantage at McDonald Jones Stadium. The Tigers took the most recent meeting 42-22 at Campbelltown in Round 6.

The scheduling spot is a major concern for Wests. When playing on a shorter turnaround than their opponent, the Tigers have lost 20 of their last 22 games. Newcastle also welcome back Kalyn Ponga, while the Tigers continue to start slowly, losing the first half in eight of their last nine matches. Dom Young also looks overdue after three games without a try.

TIP: **KNIGHTS TO WIN FIRST HALF / KNIGHTS / D YOUNG ATS $2.70

** BEST BET