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In recent years, setting midfield and jumping from an inside gate has proven the right formula in the Coolmore. Will 2025 be more of the same?
COOLMORE CLASSIC
1500m – Group 1 – Quality Handicap
The first G1 of the Sydney Autumn Carnival takes centre stage at Rosehill Gardens this weekend with the running of the Coolmore Classic worth $1 million in prize money.
Originally registered as the TAD Kennedy Stakes, the 1500m event was the first G1 for Fillies and Mares (F&M) thus attracting some of the sport’s finest who also go on to race now in other F&M G1s such as the Queen Of The Turf later in the Autumn and the Empire Rose in the Spring.
Some of the greats who have won the Coolmore include: EMANCIPATION (1984), SUNLINE (2000/02), ASSERTIVE LASS (1997), TUESDAY JOY (2007) and ZOUGOTCHA (2024). Max Lees and Gai Waterhouse are the Leading Trainers of the Coolmore having won 5 times each while Jim Cassidy is the Leading Jockey with 4 wins.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Terribly. Better luck looking for value…’
Favourites have a poor record in the Coolmore Classic. In the past 30 years, only 6 winners have been first past the post for a strike rate of 20%. This stat gets even worse when looking back over the past 15 years with only 2 (13%) Favourites winning since 2010. The last Favourite to win however was ZOUGOTCHA in 2024.
The good news for the punters is there has been plenty of value for winners in recent times. 11 winners since 2012 have had a SP of $8 or more. Furthermore, 9 winners in that same time have had SPs of $11 or more. The period between 2015 and 2021 saw all winners priced between $14 to $26. Value!
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Great success inside…’
Our winners in the Coolmore have enjoyed great success jumping from gates close to the rail. In the past 14 years, Barriers 1 to 9 have produced the best results with 13 (93%) winners coming from these gates. Over the last 19 years, a total of 16 winners have emerged from these barriers.
However, there has been a noticeable shift even closer to the rail in recent years with winners celebrating success from Barriers 1 to 6. 7 of the last 10 winners have come from these six barriers with this trend continuing in the last 5 years with all 5 winners starting from 1 to 6 highlighting a growing importance to be positioned and jumping closer to the inside of the track.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘80% strike rate settling midfield…’
Only 2 of the last 10 winners have found themselves positioned on pace with the leader with a majority of winners coming from midfield. Although a couple of winners settled 10th and 12th, due to the large fields of the Coolmore, these winners still found themselves in midfield with 5 to 6 horses still positioned behind them.
Here is the position at 800m of the last 10 winners:
ZOUGOTCHA 6th; ESPIONA 8th; LIGHTHOUSE 5th; KRONE 7th; CON TE PARTIRO 3rd; DIXIE BLOSSOMS 10th; DAYSEE DOOM 2nd; HEAVENS ABOVE 12th; PEEPING 5th; PLUCKY BELLE 9th.
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Millie Fox and the Guy Walter…’
The Guy Walter Stakes and the Millie Fox Stakes are two of the most traditional lead-up races, each producing 4 winners in the past decade. However, when comparing their overall strike rates, the Millie Fox Stakes has a better performance record in the Coolmore. Over the past 30 years, the Millie Fox has seen 3 (20%) winners from 15 starters giving it a higher success rate than the Guy Walter Stakes which has produced only 2 (9%) wins from 22 starters in the same period.
Only 3 winners in the past 23 years did not run in a F&M race before contesting the Coolmore – LIGHTHOUSE (2022), OFCOURSEICAN (2012) and SUNLINE (2002). An interesting trend to note is that 6 of the last 8 winners of the Coolmore have been 2UP suggesting that horses only need the one run earlier in the prep to be set for this G1.
Since 1995, there has been a clear trend in the weight carried by the winning horses with 15 (50%) winners carrying between 54kg and 57kg. This trend has been particularly evident in the past 8 years where 7 (88%) of the winners have carried between 55kg and 57kg. In contrast, winners who have carried less than 54kg have been somewhat successful with 6 winners in the past 15 years, but only 3 winners in the last decade.
4YOs have been the most popular winners over the past 30 years with a total of 10 victories including the last two in 2023 and 2024. In the past 15 years, all winners have been 4YOs, 5YOs or 6YOs. The last 3YO to win was TYPHOON TRACY in 2009 highlighting the dominance of the older horses in recent times.
What should I take note of?
‘Saddlecloth 9…’
The horse wearing Saddlecloth 9 has not won the Coolmore Classic in the past 30 years. Sorry Firestorm!
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Andy’s Rundown for the Newmarket Handicap:
Well this does not look good for LADY SHENANDOAH – trying to be the first 3YO to win in 16 years; to win as the shortest-priced favourite since SUNLINE at $1.70 in 2002; from a barrier so far away from the inside that she would need binoculars to see COEUR VOLANTE – but if you want to back her, here is the good news – she does have 54.5kg; she will most likely settle midfield from a wide gate with 80% of the winners have settled in the past decade and if TYPHOON TRACY can win from a wider barrier – why cant one of the best 3YO in the country do it 2025?
AMELIA’S JEWEL will have to break another hoodoo being the third horse to carry more than 57kg to victory in 30 years – the last was SUNLINE carrying 60kg in 2002. Nice barrier though; LADY OF CAMELOT showed last start she can fight all the way to the line but her barrier is worse than LADY SHENANDOAH. Can I make a case for MANAAL at the odds? I remember its run on Championship Day 1 last year upstaging Traffic Warden and Storm Boy. That was on a Heavy 8 and she has been up against Broadsiding and Autumn Glow since. Just saying – we know this race gives us winners with value…
Nic Ashman Tip:
LADY SHENANDOAH should be too good but she'll need to trail a hot speed and that could leave her vulnerable over the last 150m. MARBLE ARCH ran huge overall time in the Blamey and she could be launching late. MANAAL/COUER VOLANTE the same plus there's more. The biggest issue most of the chasers have is they all have slight map issues bar perhaps MARBLE ARCH. I'd back LADY SHENANDOAH for a decent result but make sure you win if MARBLE ARCH, COUER VOLANTE or MANAAL get up.
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