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Saturday Bets! 2025 Doncaster Mile
- Andy G
- Apr 2
- 6 min read
With 5 of the last 6 winners carrying 53kg or less to victory, history is against 14 runners in this year’s Doncaster Mile – but we can always expect something special in the best mile race in the country.
DONCASTER MILE
1600m – Group 1 – Handicap
The Sydney Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday with Royal Randwick hosting Championship Day 1 featuring 4 G1s including the famed Doncaster Mile for open-class horses raced under handicap conditions.
The 160th edition of ‘The Donny’ will carry prizemoney of $4 million making it one of the richest handicaps in the world that is not a staying distance. First run back in 1866 and won by DUNDEE, the Doncaster is one of Australia’s most prominent races so the list of winners is spoilt with icons of the sport including WINX (2016), SUNLINE (1999/2002), SUPER IMPOSE (1990/91), EMANCIPATION (1983), TOBIN BRONZE (1967), WAKEFUL (1901) and MORE JOYOUS (2012).
Tommy Smith and daughter Gai Waterhouse have enjoyed 7 victories each of the Doncaster and lead the pack as Leading Trainers – one ahead of Chris Waller who won 6 Doncasters between 2008 and 2016 – but is yet to taste victory since. Leading Jockey is Glen Boss with 7 wins to his name – his first in 1996 on SPRINT BY while his seventh came 23 years later onboard BRUTAL in 2019.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Take others that are $8 or below…’
Favourites’ record in the Doncaster is below par at best with 8 Favourites winning in the past 30 years (27%). Recently, this strike rate has dropped dramatically with 3 Favourites winning in the past 17 years (18%). Only 1 Favourite has won in the last 8 years.
There is a noticeable trend though in regards to SPs of the Doncaster with 7 winners in the last decade having a SP of $8 or less demonstrating the dominance of shorter-priced contenders. Historically, this pattern extends even further with 13 of the last 20 winners also having a SP of $8 or less.
The exceptions to this $8 or below SP in the last decade were big longshots with MR BRIGHTSIDE winning at $20 in 2022, NETTOYER winning at $41 in 2020 and ITS SOMEWHAT winning at $31 in 2017. So, find a winner $8 or below or if you go for the upset – go big.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Historically wide, but recently inside…’
The Doncaster is typically known for having a large field so with that in mind, we see a relatively broad spread of winning gates with horses winning from Barriers 1 to 18 over the past 30 years.
However, a closer look at the distribution of winners between inside, middle, and outside barriers reveals that historically, wider barriers have seen the most success. Specifically, 14 of the last 30 winners have jumped from Barriers 11 to 18 – a trend that has persisted over the past 15 years with 6 winners emerging from these double-digit gates.
Having said that, there has been a recent shift towards the inside barriers with Barriers 1 to 4 securing 4 wins in the past decade. Notably, in even more recent years, Barriers 2 to 4 have been particularly successful with these gates producing 3 of the last 4 winners suggesting a slight change in the dynamics of gate preference for the race.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Off-pace in the wet…’
With 9 Doncaster Miles in the last decade held on rain-affected tracks, 7 of the last 10 winners have settled in an off-midfield or backmarker position demonstrating a pattern that leading or being on-pace on a Soft or Heavy track is not ideal for victory.
The last Doncaster raced on a Good track was in 2018 when HAPPY CLAPPER settled 4th. We may get a Good track come Saturday for the first time in 7 years.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The $6/week offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot!
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘George Ryder – but it has changed…’
Traditionally, the George Ryder Stakes has been the main lead-up for Doncaster champions. In the past 30 years, this route has accumulated 14 winners while even more recently, 6 winners in the past 10 years have used the George Ryder with all 6 finishing in the top four of that race.
However, there has been a slight change in lead-ups of late with the last 3 winners not using the George Ryder – MR BRIGHTSIDE won in 2022 and 2023 after racing in the All-Star Mile prior to the Doncaster. In 2024, CELESTIAL LEGEND came through the Randwick Guineas.
Being a handicap, weight is one of the biggest considerations for punters and the stats are pretty compelling – 5 of the last 6 winners have carried 53kg or less on their way to winning the Doncaster. The pattern of lighter horses finding success has been constant over time with 16 of the last 22 winners carrying 55kg or less. There have been only 2 horses in that same period who carried 57kg or more to victory – HAPPY CLAPPER in 2018 and MORE JOYOUS in 2012.
In terms of gender, the girls don’t have the best record with 34 Mares/Fillies winning the Doncaster (21%). NETTOYER was the last Mare in 2020 – SUNLINE was the last Filly to win 26 years ago in 1999.
Not surprisingly, the 3YOs have been quite successful with the lack of weight they usually carry. 33 winners in 159 years (20%) with 10 of those winners occurring in the past 26 years (38%) – the last was CELESTIAL LEGEND just last year. There has been only one 5YO and one 7YO win in the past 12 years.
To hear Nic's tip for the Doncaster Mile plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick for Championship Day 1, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Did you know?
“Happy Clapper deja vu…”
In 2017, Happy Clapper won his first G1 in the Epsom Handicap run over 1600m carrying 57kg in a time of 1.33.17.
6 months later, Happy Clapper won his third G1 in the Doncaster Mile run over 1600m carrying 57kg in a time of 1.33.17.
Andy’s Rundown for the Doncaster Mile:
The question punters need to ask themselves is ‘What’s more important – weight or genuine class and experience?’
The huge success of lightly weighted horses in winning the Doncaster Mile in recent years is a major factor and with only 6 horses 53kg or below in the race (excluding emergencies), it narrows the field right down. LINEBACKER is appropriately priced in the market along with FIRESTORM who was second to LADY SHENANDOAH last start – BUT will the lack of weight be enough to overcome the experience and brilliance of top weights ANOTHER WIL, GRINGOTTS and TOM KITTEN who have all won G1s this prep!
I think a mix of both might be the key so LINEBACKER with little weight and a 3YO jumping from a historically nice wide barrier will be hard to beat (but may be Favourite when the red light flashes); I think ANOTHER WIL has proven for a while now that he can handle top weight over 1600m and if he jumps and wins from Barrier 18 – he will be the third winner in 6 years to win from that barrier. Then it is back to the light weights with FIRESTORM ready to build on her last start second and break the Mare drought; then the smokey may be ENCAP – a backmarker dropping a ton of weight from its last start on Tuesday jumping from the new sweet spot of Barrier 3 – well we know if the more fancied contenders in the market don’t win – it’s the longshot.
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