Saturday Bets! 2025 P.B Lawrence Stakes

Group racing heads back down south this Saturday with Caulfield hosting 3 group races headlined by the G2 PB Lawrence Stakes over 1400m under WFA conditions.

The 77th running of the race will again provide a foundation for many horses looking to kick-start their Spring campaigns with a 1UP run under their belt. The platform worked well for JAMEKA in 2016 who ran fourth in this race before going on to win the Caulfield Cup in the same prep. Other notable winners include: TOBIN BRONZE (1966), APACHE CAT (2007) and MR BRIGHTSIDE (2022/23).

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Cliff Brown is killing it at the moment and is the Form Trainer heading into the race. Brown is surpassing market expectations by 74% in his last 100 runners with a POT of 59.1%. Can he keep it going with SEPALS? With Jockey Ethan Brown onboard, the Trainer/Jockey Combo is soundly up 21% on market expectations.

The Form Jockey is Damian Lane who will saddle up MOIRA for Chris Waller. Lane exceeds market expectations by 31% over his last 100 rides and is 28% above his career average.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have a solid record with 7 wins since 2010 (47%) – and have been extremely dominant in recent years with 4 of the last 6 winners.

  
  

• And the Favourites have lined the pockets of punters since 2010 – a $100 bet on each of the Favourites over the past 15 years would see you up $780.

  
  

• Over the past decade, we have seen the top contenders in the market dominate – the last 10 winners had a SP of $8 or less. Furthermore, over the past 15 years, 9 winners had a SP of $5 or less.

  
  

• STAR ROLLING (2014) is the only double-digit odd winner in the past 18 years. Previous to that win was POMPEII RULER winning at $21 in 2007.

  
  

• Barriers 5 – 9 have generated the most winners over the past 15 years with 8 winners (53%) jumping from these gates. This is accentuated further with 3 of the last 4 winners again jumping from this barrier position.

  
  

• Being on pace has been advantageous in the past decade with 8 winners settling 2nd, 3rd or 4th at the 800m mark. 

  
  

• Mares have enjoyed some success in recent times with 4 wins since 2016. However, overall, their record is poor with their last win previous to 2016 being INAFLURY in 1999. In the past 30 years, Mares have won 6 times (20%).

  
  

• The older horses have tasted success more often recently with 9 of the last 14 winners being 6YOs or older.

  
  

• Again, with the new season in its infancy, understandably 9 of the last 12 winners have been 1UP – including 4 of the last 6 winners.

  
  

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• A major contender with a SP of $8 or less

• Seeks to be on pace jumping from Barriers 5 – 9

• 1UP

Andy’s Tip: 7. SEPALS $7

Under $8s jumping from 7. He is 1UP and is 3/3 at the Distance. Backing both Browns to get the job done.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 1. PRIVATE EYE $4

Other than YELLOW SAM, every runner is first-up. There's two off 63 days - PRIVATE EYE/ DESERT LIGHTNING - the rest are off 133 days or more. Fresh is best with 9 of the last 12 PB Lawrence winners being first-up but I reckon that little bit of residual fitness from the Stradbroke Handicap will give Nash Rawiller the confidence to go forward on PRIVATE EYE on a day where I'm expecting horses that settle in the first 6 to have an advantage. SEPALS is the big unknown having posted some huge figures in the Autumn but we suspect he has G1 targets later in the Spring in mind. I'll be backing him as well at $7 as he looks to have come back even better. MORE PREDICTED TRACK PATTERNS, BEST BETS AND LONGSHOTS via TBF WORKS BURGER. YOU CAN GET A 7-DAY FREE TRIAL RIGHT NOW by clicking on the image BELOW