Saturday Bets! 2025 Queensland Derby
- Andy G
- May 28
- 3 min read
Here are the historical stats and trends, Nic Ashman’s tip and the predicted track pattern for the 2025 G1 Queensland Derby (2400m) at Eagle Farm on Saturday
A $1million race that provided the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner, SHOCKING, who finished 2nd to COURT RULER
WHO'S HOT?
Blake Shinn is riding at 28% from his last 100 rides and that is the best strike rate of any rider in the field. He's beaten market expectations by 23% during this time.
From the trainers, CHRIS MUNCE is white hot striking at 19% recently and beating market expectations by a huge 62%.
TRACK PATTERN
Off rail.
FORM ANALYSIS
Favourites (STATUARIO) have a solid record winning 7 of the past 14 editions – including 4 of the last 7.
Historically, highly fancied contenders have succeeded with 17 of the last 21 winners jumping at $9 or less.
However, 2 of those rare double-digit winners won recently in 2024 (WARMONGER) and 2021 (KUKERACHA).
Since 2000, inside Barriers 1 – 4 (42%) and wide Barriers 10 – 18 (38%) have dominated the most.
Middle Barriers 5 – 9 have only won twice in the past 14 years. The last time a middle gate was successful was in 2018 (RUTHVEN).
8 of the last 10 winners have settled between 4th to 8th at the 800m mark
The Rough Habit Stakes has been the traditional lead-up, however, 3 of the last 7 winners came through the SA Derby with all 3 placing in that race.
The last 12 winners all placed in their previous run.
The last 13 winners have been Males. Since 1989, only 4 Fillies have won – the last in 2010 (DARIANA).
The last Queensland-trained winner was EAGLE WAY in 2016. Before that was ICE CHARIOT in 2006.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:
Is in the first few lines of betting
Drawn in an inside or wide gate and will settle midfield
Placed in their last run and is a Male
Andy’s Tip: 3. STATUARIO $5.50
Favourite coming off 0.8L second in the SA Derby. Drawn inside and should settle in midfield.
NIC ASHMAN TIP
"When you isolate STATUARIO's figures at 2000m and beyond that tell a story of a natural stayer. he has the ability to be in the first half-dozen, which could prove advantageous if they pull up mid-race. The Caulfield race that ROGAN won rated very well and 3rd in that was THE MUFFIN MAN. PARTY CRASHER ran fast time in Adelaide last start and BELLE DETELLE's sectionals say she needed the run last time in the Rough Habit. "
Also racing this Saturday at Doomben is the G1 Kingsford-Smith Cup raced over 1300m under WFA conditions. Here are a few historical stats and trends:
4 of the last 21 winners have been Favourites
7 of the last 11 winners have started at $10 or more
12 of the last 17 winners have jumped from Barriers 4 – 8
4 of the last 6 winners raced in the Doomben 10,000 prior
The last 8 winners have been Males aged 4YO or 5YO.
Andy’s Tip: 1. GIGA KICK $5
Non-Favourite 5YO Male looking to build on last start third in Goodwood. MORE PREDICTED TRACK PATTERNS, BEST BETS AND LONGSHOTS via TBF WORKS BURGER. YOU CAN GET A 7-DAY FREE TRIAL RIGHT NOW by clicking on the image BELOW
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