Saturday Bets! 2025 Stradbroke Handicap

Here are the historical stats and trends and Nic Ashman’s tip for the 2025 G1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

STRADBROKE HANDICAP FORM ANALYSIS

• This is not a good race historically for the Favourites with only 3 (15%) wins in the past 20 years.

  
  

• That means value can be found – and proven with the last 11 winners that were not Favourites all winning at double-digit odds ranging from $11 to $31.

  
  

• To continue this trend – 4 of the last 5 winners had SPs ranging from $11 to $15.

  
  

• At $3.60, 2023 winner THINK ABOUT IT was the shortest-priced winner since PRIVATE SHEER in 2003 at $3.40.

  
  

• Wide barriers have proven most successful with 9 of the last 15 winners jumping from Barriers 10 to 17 – and continuing in recent times with 4 of the last 5 winners jumping from the same wide gates.

  
  

• Winding up from a midfield position at the 400m has yielded winning results with 6 of the last 8 winners either 7th or 8th when turning for home.

  
  

• Profile Stats: 7 of the last 10 winners have been either 4YOs or 5YOs. Moreover, only 4 Females have won in the past 18 years, however, 2 of those wins occurred in the past 4 years.

  
  

• Carrying weight has not been an issue with 11 of the past 15 winners carrying 53kg or more to victory. This trend has not waned over recent years with 5 of the past 7 winners carrying this weight or more.

  
  

• The most common lead-ups have been the BRC Sprint and the Kingsford-Smith Cup with 5 of the last 6 winners racing in one of these races earlier in their prep.

  
  

• Showing strong form upon arrival into the race has proven effective with 7 of the last 9 winners placing in their last start.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Has a SP at double-digit odds

• Drawn in a wide gate

• Carrying 53kg or more who placed in their last start

Andy’s Tip: 2. ROTHFIRE $15

Hometown hero looking to win his biggest race late in his career. Juicy double-digit odds jumping from Barrier 17 with 55.5kg on his back – fairytale?

Also racing this Saturday at Eagle Farm is the G1 J.J. Atkins raced over 1600m. Here are a few historical stats and trends:

• 5 of the last 9 winners have been Favourites.

  
  

• 13 of the last 15 winners have started at $6.50 or less.

  
  

• 13 of the last 18 winners jumped from Barriers 2 – 6 including 6 of the last 8 winners.

  
  

• 6 of the last 7 winners won their previous start.

  
  

• 3 of the last 4 winners finished in the quinella in the BRC Sires Produce the race prior.

  
  

• Only 5 Fillies have won in the past 30 years – the last SHEEZA BELTER (2022).

Andy’s Tip: 1. COOL ARCHIE $3.60

Favourite who won his previous start in the BRC Sires Produce. Well below the $6.50 OP and going for 5 in a row. MORE PREDICTED TRACK PATTERNS, BEST BETS AND LONGSHOTS via TBF WORKS BURGER. YOU CAN GET A 7-DAY FREE TRIAL RIGHT NOW by clicking on the image BELOW