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With 9 Favourites winning in the last decade – the odds are stacked in VIA SISTINA’s favour in the Verry Elleegant Stakes. Can someone upset her?
VERRY ELLEEGANT STAKES
1600m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The 100th edition of the Verry Elleegant Stakes (formerly Chipping Norton) takes centre stage this Saturday at Royal Randwick with prize money of $1 million.
First run in 1925, the 1600m G1 provides a stepping stone for some of Australia’s finest horses on their way to the middle distance G1s later in the Autumn. As a result, some famous names have won multiple times in recent history such as VERRY ELLEEGANT (2021/22), WINX (2016/17/18/19), SHOOT OUT (2012/13) and TIE THE KNOT (1999/2000/01/02).
The winners list in the past century is littered with other past greats including PHAR LAP (1930), TULLOCH (1958/60), SUPER IMPOSE (1991/92), OCTAGONAL (1997), LONHRO (2003) and ANAMOE (2023).
The equal Leading Trainers with 10 wins each are Tommy Smith and Chris Waller – who won his 10 in 12 years from 2011 to 2022. Hugh Bowman is the Leading Jockey with 7 wins dominating the period from 2011 to 2019.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Punters have poured in on the Favs – and for good reason…’
Since 2013, 10 winners (83%) have been Favourites. Of those 10 winners, 9 had SPs ranging from $1.08 to $2.80. In the 9 years from 2015 to 2023, the Favourites have maintained a 100% record. The last winner with a double-digit SP was DANLEIGH in 2011. Granted – we have had some legends first past the post in this time like WINX and VERRY ELLEEGANT, however, even if we go back to 1995 – Favourites still carry a 70% strike rate with an astonishing 21 victories. The bookies must hate this race every year.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Without doubt, inside gates is where you want to be…’
With only 9 horses in this year’s event, finding the sweet spot to jump from is imperative. In the last 13 years, 10 (77%) winners have jumped from Barriers 2 to 5 demonstrating a barrier close to the fence is more favourable. This stat is reinforced in recent years where 5 of the last 6 winners have jumped from Barriers 2 to 4. There have only been 5 winners in the last 30 years that have won from Barrier 7 or wider. Stay inside.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘On pace is suitable considering field size, but not fatal if you can’t find it…’
To get a good gauge on the winner’s settling positions, it seems wise to go back a bit further in time and look at the winner’s position at the 800m as WINX did win 4 times in the past decade and quite frankly – could have won from anywhere.
Since 2010, 9 winners have settled between places 5 and 8. 4 winners have been on pace, while 2 came from the back. With only 9 runners in this edition, settling in the top 5 to 6 positions seems best, however, coming from the back in a high-tempo race may prove decisive as well.
Here is the position at 800m of the last 15 winners:
THINK IT OVER 4th; ANAMOE 8th; VERRY ELLEEGANT 7th (2022); 5th (2021); TE AKAU SHARK 10th; WINX 3rd (2019); 8th (2018); 7th (2017); 5th (2016) CONTRIBUTER 5th; BOBAN 5th; SHOOT OUT 8th (2013); 4th (2012); DANLEIGH 10th; THESEO 1st.
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘All you need is the Apollo…’
The Apollo Stakes has traditionally been the focal lead-up race for the Verry Elleegant proven by the winners. The last 4 winners of the Verry Elleegant all raced 1UP in the Apollo. Of the last 10 winners of the Verry Elleegant, 8 raced in the Apollo 1UP and even more captivating – 7 of those winners all placed in the Apollo with 5 winning the race. This has to be the form line especially considering historically 23 winners in the last 30 years have raced in the Apollo Stakes – and 6 out of the 8 horses from the 2025 Apollo are racing in the Verry Elleegant.
Another interesting stat is the success of the Mares with 6 winning in the last decade. On top of that, 5 of those 6 winning Mares all used the Apollo as a lead-up.
The Verry Elleegant has not been a race for the young however with the last 3YO winning back in 2007.
Who to keep an eye on?
‘J-Mac’
James McDonald has dominated the Verry Elleegant in recent years winning 3 of the last 4. He will be looking for his 5th in the last decade with a win this weekend. All J-Mac wins have come on the favourite.
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Andy’s Rundown for the Verry Elleegant Stakes:
Obviously we need to look at VIA SISTINA. The clear Favourite in a race where Favourites have clearly dominated for a long time. While the barrier is not in the ‘sweet spot,’ being only a field of 9 starters, this should not pose a problem for her – settling midfield before bringing her out and taking her home. J-Mac is back on board where him and VIA SISTINA have finished in the quinella 4 from 5 attempts while also being 4 from 5 2UP finishing in the top two. The last horse to win from Barrier 8 was WINX – trained by Chris Waller who was favourite and ran in the Apollo a couple of weeks earlier after winning her first Cox Plate the prep before – one can draw similarities…
The danger is FANGIRL who deservedly won the Apollo last start and from a great barrier, can potentially create another upset at her favourite track; CEOLWULF will need to improve a lot and should over 1600m although will compete with a tricky gate and LINDERMANN will lead and hope to go one better from the Apollo in a ‘catch me if you can’ narrative.
Nic Ashman Tip:
VIA SISTINA should've won the Apollo Stakes but missed the start and ended up at least one pair further back. She clocked the best last 400/200m of the race and should atone here. LINDERMANN is the roughie that could give some cheek on pace. Traditionally his ratings lift 2-3L when second-up yet he was gallant in the Apollo.
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