Saturday Bets! 2025 Winx Stakes

The first G1 of the new season takes centre stage at Royal Randwick this Saturday with the 102nd running of the Winx Stakes over 1400m under WFA conditions.

Formally known as the Warwick Stakes, the race has become an important 1UP fixture in recent years for many horses preparing for a tilt at the Cox Plate – evident in winners WINX (2016/2017/2018), ANAMOE (2022) and VIA SISTINA (2024). Other famous winners of the Winx Stakes include: TULLOCH (1957), KINGSTON TOWN (1980/81/82) and SUNLINE (1999).

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Form Jockeys going into the Winx Stakes are Dylan Gibbons and Jason Collett who are exceeding market expectations by 34% and 32% respectively in their last 100 rides. With Gibbons riding WAR ETERNAL and Collett saddling up on AELIANA, both horses should be considered with these two in-form jockeys on board.

The top Jockey/Trainer combo is Adkins/Duggan who join forces on DIAMOND DIESEL and are surpassing market expectations by 61% at the moment, however, take note of the next pairing of Berry/Maher who are 48% above market expectations and have second favourite GRINGOTTS.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Excluding Winx’s hat-trick of wins (2016-2018), Favourites have not performed well in this race with only 3 wins in the past 16 years (19%). ANAMOE (2022) is the only Favourite to win in the past 6 years.

  
  

• So punters backing Favourites has not been a profitable exercise – placing a $100 bet on the Favourite each year since 2009 would see you down $282. Since 2019, you would be down $350.

  
  

• With Favourites not being so profitable, there has been plenty of value in finding winners – 4 of the last 6 winners had SPs of $7.50, $11, $11 and $31.

  
  

• Historically, winners have been victorious jumping from inside gates – 16 of the last 29 winners (55%) have jumped from Barriers 1 – 4. However, wide gates have bucked this trend in recent years with 4 of the last 5 winners jumping between Barriers 7 – 12.

  
  

• 5 winners in the past decade have settled off-pace and have been positioned 8th or 9th at the 800m mark.

  
  

• With a Heavy track predicted, you would need to go back to 2014 to witness our last Winx Stakes on a Heavy track. It was won by TIGER TEES who carried 59kg and was leading at the 800m mark before going on to take victory.

  
  

• Mares have won 10 times in the past 30 years – however, the last decade has seen most of their success in the form of victories with 7 wins since 2015 including the last two.

  
  

• The less mature horses have enjoyed great success in the past decade with 8 winners being 6YOs or younger.

  
  

• Every winner in the last decade has been 1UP. 7 of those 10 winners were spelled for either 133 or 140 days meaning their last run was on Championship Day 1 or Championship Day 2.

  
  

• Chris Waller has dominated the past decade with 7 wins – thanks largely to Winx’s dominance. J-Mac has also enjoyed great success in recent years winning 3 times in the past 5 years.

To hear Nic's tip for the Winx Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

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To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Is not the Favourite

• Jumping from an outside barrier

• 6YO or younger

Andy’s Tip: 3. GRINGOTTS $4.80

Very tricky considering the state of play with the weather and track – so taking on board a non-Favourite who will be out wide away from the rail and should be on pace like TIGER TEES was on a Heavy track in 2014 - maybe that’s the recipe for success? Look out for CEOLWULF too who has form on a Heavy track.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 3. GRINGOTTS $4.80

"I think GRINGOTTS is the horse that might see this as a target more so than some of the other well-performed gallopers. He proved in the Autumn he's up to G1 WFA and it's unlikely we'll see him in a Cox Plate or Cup. I can't hide my love for AELIANA. I think she could be special and if so, can beat these on class. I hate betting against VIA SISTINA, who clearly is the best horse (at this point) but draws 1 and will be in the second half of the field. ROBUSTO leads and his last start rating suggests some of the big time runners in this will need to chase him from a fair way out if they're going to run him down. Gun to my head for a single ticket in the race, I'd probably take GRINGOTTS in a standout Quinella with AELIANA/VIA SISTINA/ROBUSTO."

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