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Flemington will host its first Group 1 of 2025 this Saturday with the $1 million Black Caviar Lightning Stakes over 1000m. Up in Sydney, the 3YO Fillies are back in the Group 2 Light Finger Stakes accompanied by the 52nd edition of the Group 2 Apollo Stakes.
We've had to push The Beaten Favourite's ‘Saturday Bets!’ podcast back another week.
BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING STAKES
1000m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
Renamed in 2013 after three-time winner and Australia’s greatest sprinter BLACK CAVIAR (2011, 2012, 2013), the Lightning sets the stage for the return of the country’s best sprinters after a summer spell in preparation for potential Autumn success. In recent years, NATURE STRIP (2021), HOME AFFAIRS (2022) and IMPERATRIZ (2024) have used the race to springboard into the future Autumn G1s namely the Newmarket or the TJ Smith.
2 of the last 10 winners have been Favourites
6 of the last 30 winners have had a SP of $10 or more
3 of those winners have come since 2017
Only 4 winners have jumped from barrier 9 or wider
2 of the last 3 winners have been 3YO
The last 3YO winner before 2022 was in 2005
10 of the last 11 winners have worn Saddlecloths 1, 4 or 8
14 of the last 15 winners were 1UP after a spell
10 were spelled between 98 – 112 days
Tip Via The Stats:
12. TRAFFIC WARDEN $6.50 – 2u
· Non-Favourite; OP $6.50; Barrier 4; 3YO; 1UP after 105 days
10. GROWING EMPIRE $3.70 – 1u
· Non-Favourite; OP $3.70; Barrier 6; 3YO; 1UP after 105 days
Nic Ashman Tip:
11. SWITZERLAND $3.00 Valuable colt that went to a new level at his last two runs in the spring. His Coolmore Stud Stakes victory rated through the roof and they’ve kept him fresh at the trials for this. J-Mac left VIA SISTINA in Sydney for this ride. Would not be surprised if he won this and they announce he's going to Royal Ascot.
APOLLO STAKES
1400m – Group 2 – Weight For Age
At Royal Randwick, the Apollo will see the return of arguably Australia’s best horse VIA SISTINA as she looks to continue following in the footsteps of WINX – winning the Cox Plate the previous prep before winning the Apollo and the Queen Elizabeth Stakes the following prep (2016/17, 2018/19).
8 of the last 11 winners have been Favourites
4 of the last 15 winners have had a SP of $8 or more
9 of the last 10 winners have won from Barriers 1 – 7
6 of the last 10 winners have worn Saddlecloths 1 or 8
8 of the last 10 winners were 1UP after a spell
8 of the last 9 winners have been trained by CHRIS WALLER or JAMES CUMMINGS
Tip Via The Stats:
5. VIA SISTINA $2.15 – 2u
· Favourite; OP $2.15; Barrier 3; 1UP; Trained by Waller
Nic Ashman Tip:
5. VIA SISTINA $2.15 Cox Plate winner resuming and like her stablemate, SWITZERLAND, she went to a whole new level last prep. Won first-up last spring clocking the best last 200m of the day. Maps nicely.
LIGHT FINGERS STAKES
1200m – Group 2 – Set Weights
Also on the card at Randwick will be the return of the 3YO Fillies ready to begin their prep over 1200m. In recent times, the Light Fingers winners have ventured down a variety of different paths in the Autumn with NAKEETA JANE (2019) and MORE JOYOUS (2010) going on to win the Surround Stakes while HUNGRY HEART (2021) went on to win the Australian Oaks.
4 of the last 15 winners have been Favourites
The SP of the last 15 winners:
8 have had a SP of $6.50 or less
5 have had a SP of $9 to $14
2 have had a SP of $21 or more
6 of the last 7 winners have won from Barriers 1 – 5
6 of the last 9 winners have worn Saddlecloths 1 – 3
The last 7 winners have all been 1UP after a spell
GAI WATERHOUSE is the Leading Trainer of this event with 7 wins – 4 ahead of her closest rival.
Tip Via The Stats:
1. LADY OF CAMELOT $3.70 – 2u
· Non-Favourite; OP $3.70; Barrier 4; Saddlecloth 1; Trained by Waterhouse/Bott
Nic Ashman Tip:
8. DECLICHY BOULEVARD $21 Works Burger subs are on her at $26 for the G1 Surround Stakes and this will tell us if we’re on the mark. Her trials suggest she’s come back a strong filly and she presents as a great each-way chance at a good price. Had AMELITA drawn a gate, I’d be keen to launch at her each-way. Her Red Roses rating was superb and if she runs to that figure, she won’t miss top 3 here at $26.
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