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Saturday Bets! Feb 8

Writer's picture: Andrew GulczynskiAndrew Gulczynski

Group 1 racing returns to Melbourne this weekend with the 101st running of the CF Orr Stakes over 1400m while the Blue Diamond Preludes for the Colts/Geldings and Fillies also highlight a bumper day at Caulfield.

 

The Beaten Favourite's ‘Saturday Bets!’ podcast is back next week.

 

CF ORR STAKES

1400m – Group 1 – Weight For Age

First raced in 1925, the CF Orr Stakes presents an opportunity for middle distance and staying horses to start their prep with G1 success before targeting other G1s in Sydney and Melbourne later in the Autumn. Recent winners include JACQUINOT (2023) and MR BRIGHTSIDE (2024).


From the past 15 winners:

 

  • 8 have been Favourites

  • 10 have had a OP of $7 or less

  • 10 have won from Barriers 1 – 8

  • 10 have been 5YO or older 

  • 8 have worn Saddlecloths 8 – 14

  • 7 used the Australia Stakes as a lead-up race; 6 were first up

  • MR BRIGHTSIDE is looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the event since TYPHOON TRACY (2010/2011)

 

Tip Via The Stats: 

 

5. ANOTHER WIL $4.60 – 2u

·         OP $4.60; Barrier 3; 5YO; First Up


Nic Ashman Tip:

What does Craig Williams do from barrier 8? The 1400m start point is the trickiest at Caulfield. Jamie Melham (Kah) isn’t going to let him dawdle across into a nice trailing position. There’s a bit of cat and mouse to the start of the G1 feature. On ratings, MR BRIGHTSIDE wins but ANOTHER WILL has map advantages over him. But then there’s SCHWARZ, who ran a career peak rating first-up at The Valley. He possesses a key ingredient to winning 1400m features at the start of a carnival – barrier speed and fitness. Backing the New Kid On The Block to hang tough.

 

 

BLUE DIAMOND PRELUDE (FILLIES)

1100m – Group 2 – Set Weights

 

The 44th running of the Blue Diamond Preludes also takes place this Saturday with the Fillies racing in a G2 while the Colts and Geldings will race in a G3. Both races will be raced over 1100m with $350,000 prizemoney for each race.

From the past 15 winners:

 

  • 8 have been Favourites

  • 11 have had a OP of $9.50 or less

  • 10 have won from Barriers 7 – 11

  • 10 have worn Saddlecloths 1 – 5

  • 4 used the Blue Diamond Preview as a lead-up race; 3 were first up

 

Tip Via The Stats: 

 

4. WILTSHIRE SQUARE $7.50 – 2u

·         OP $7.50; Barrier 11; Saddlecloth 4; Used Blue Diamond Preview

 

Nic Ashman Tip:

Impossible to go past MY GLADIOLA. She travelled 2L below standard through her first 400m in the Preview but unleashed the 4th fastest last 600m of the day to beat finish the 1000m race 2L above standard. Worried about the wide gate? Only 1 of the last 6 winners have started from gate 4 or closer.

 

 

BLUE DIAMOND PRELUDE (COLTS & GELDINGS)

1100m – Group 3 – Set Weights

From the past 15 winners:

 

  • 8 have been Favourites

  • 13 have had a OP of $6 or less

  • 11 have won from Barriers 1 – 8

  • 12 have worn Saddlecloths 1 – 5

  • 6 used the Blue Diamond Preview as a lead-up race; 5 were first up

 

Tip Via The Stats: 

 

2. ALEPPO PINE $2.30 – 2u

·         Favourite; OP $2.30; Barrier 2; Saddlecloth 2; First Up

 

Nic Ashman Tip:

Interested to see what price ALEPPO PINE gets to. His debut win at Ballarat looked good to the eye but the times say it was fair at best. That said, his workouts leading into this have looked first rate and none of these have smashed the clock yet. I wouldn’t take the $2.30 early, take Top Fluc.


Below is the month by month 2024 results of TBF's WORKS BURGER service. Our staking plan is only a small part of the service. Check out the rest of the services included HERE



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