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World Cup 2026 Preview

Updated: Jun 12

Here are our BEST, DANGERS and LONGSHOTS together with a staking plan for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.


The 2026 FIFA World Cup marks the biggest expansion in the tournament's history, growing from 32 teams to 48 and creating opportunities for nations that may never have previously reached football's grandest stage. First-time qualifiers Uzbekistan and Jordan will make their World Cup debuts, while nations such as Curacao are within touching distance of history. For many countries, qualification has often ended in heartbreak — Scotland missed Qatar on penalties, Italy failed to qualify for the past two World Cups, and countless nations have fallen one result short.


In 2014, I developed a model (one that I wouldn't claim to be anything flash) that essentially weights a team's predicted performance based on recent tournament form and qualifying data.


It has successfully picked every World Cup winner from 2014 onwards but it selects multiple teams in the staking plan and is quite conservative by nature. Next to each team is the current odds and our rated price.


Staking plan that I have used for the last 3 World Cups is at the bottom.


Like our Quaddie Hunter, we have broken the teams into 3 categories.


BEST


England ($10.00)

Rated $8.00

2022 World Cup: Quarter-finals (lost to France)

Best World Cup Finish: Winners (1966)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • UEFA Euro 2024: Runner-up

  • UEFA Nations League 2025: Semi-finalists

England arrive with arguably the strongest all-round profile in the tournament. They conceded no goals during qualifying and remain stacked with talent across every line. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka headline a squad that combines experience with youth. The big question is whether they can finally convert promise into silverware after another near miss at Euro 2024. Their defensive record alone makes them genuine favourites.


Argentina ($11.00)

Rated $10

2022 World Cup: Winners

Best World Cup Finish: Winners (1978, 1986, 2022)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • Copa America 2024: Winners

The defending champions continue to set the benchmark. Argentina backed up their World Cup triumph by winning another Copa America and remain one of the most tactically adaptable sides in football. They know how to win ugly, dominate possession or strike on the counter. Tournament experience is a huge asset and few nations possess more. Until somebody knocks them off, Argentina deserve their place among the leading contenders.


Spain ($6.00)

Rated $6.00

2022 World Cup: Round of 16

Best World Cup Finish: Winners (2010)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • UEFA Euro 2024: Winners

  • UEFA Nations League 2023: Winners

Spain have quietly rebuilt into one of the strongest teams in world football. Their traditional possession game remains intact but there is now greater directness and attacking threat. Winning both the Nations League and Euro 2024 proves they know how to perform in tournament football. Their defensive numbers through qualifying were elite and many analysts now rate them among the most likely champions.


DANGERS


France ($6.00)

Rated $7.00

2022 World Cup: Runner-up

Best World Cup Finish: Winners (1998, 2018)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • UEFA Euro 2024: Semi-finalists

  • UEFA Nations League 2025: Winners

France continue to produce elite talent at a remarkable rate. Kylian Mbappe remains one of the most influential players in world football and the squad is loaded with world-class options. They may not have dominated qualifying statistically, but history shows France rarely need to. Their recent record of reaching major finals and semi-finals speaks for itself. That said, they looked plain at the Euros and will need to lift to win this.


Portugal ($13.00)

Rated $11.00

2022 World Cup: Quarter-finals

Best World Cup Finish: Third Place (1966)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • UEFA Nations League 2025: Winners

  • UEFA Euro 2024: Quarter-finals

Portugal are flying under the radar. They possess elite talent across the park and arguably enter this World Cup with their strongest squad depth ever. Winning the Nations League in 2025 showed they can still deliver on the big stage and their balance between attack and defence makes them a genuine title threat.


Brazil ($11.00)

Rated $15

2022 World Cup: Quarter-finals

Best World Cup Finish: Winners (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • Copa America 2024: Quarter-finals

Brazil haven't lifted the World Cup since 2002 but remain football's most successful nation. Their qualifying campaign wasn't as dominant as previous generations, but their talent pool remains extraordinary. When Brazil gather momentum in a tournament they become incredibly dangerous.


LONGSHOTS

Netherlands ($23.00)

Rated $18

2022 World Cup: Quarter-finals

Best World Cup Finish: Runner-up (1974, 1978, 2010)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • UEFA Euro 2024: Semi-finalists

  • UEFA Nations League 2025: Runner-up

The Dutch continue to knock on the door without quite breaking through. Memphis Depay was among the leading scorers in qualification while Virgil van Dijk anchors a strong defence. Their recent tournament performances suggest they are capable of making another deep run and they have enough quality to challenge the heavyweights on their day.


Colombia ($51.00)

Rated $41.00

2022 World Cup: Did Not Qualify

Best World Cup Finish: Quarter-finals (2014)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • Copa America 2024: Runner-up

Colombia have flown under the radar. Their run to the Copa America final showed they can compete with the continent's best and their qualification campaign was one of the strongest in South America. Well organised, disciplined and dangerous in transition, they profile as exactly the sort of team capable of upsetting a favourite in the knockout stages.


Norway ($41.00)

Rated $41.00

2022 World Cup: Did Not Qualify

Best World Cup Finish: Round of 16 (1998)

Major Tournaments Since Qatar 2022:

  • No major tournament appearances

Norway are the wildcard. They scored more goals than any nation during qualification and possess the world's most feared striker in Erling Haaland. Martin Odegaard provides creativity while the supporting cast continues to improve. Their lack of recent tournament experience is a concern as is their defence, but their attacking firepower gives them the ability to upset any nation in a knockout match.


TBF VERDICT

We have Spain top rated at $6 with some value in Engalnd, Argentina and Portugal. No team has won the World Cup when rated greater than $15 on our system.


We bet to win double our total stakes. EG if we bet $1,000 in total across all wagers then we aim to collect $2,000 should any of our selected teams win. And we bet according to our rated price not the current odds.


$1000 STAKING PLAN

$333 SPAIN @$6.00

$250 ENGLAND @$10.00

$200 ARGENTINA @$11.00

$181 PORTUGAL @$13.00


Given FRANCE are the only other team we have rated below $15, we'll have a saver bet on them.

$200 FRANCE @$6.00


Takes our total outlay to $1164.


AUSTRALIA?

We have them rated $1.92 to qualify from Group D and therefore the $2 floating around is value. Get on board the Kangaroo train!


WHO CAN I BACK TO MAKE A SEMI AT BIG ODDS?

We have SENEGAL ($151.00) as the best mega-longshot to cause some heartache. They have firepower upfront and speed across the park. There's not a lot between them and MOROCCO, who are less than one third SENEGAL's odds.


BEST LONGSHOT TO BACK EACH-WAY?

NETHERLANDS ($23.00). They can move the ball across the park faster than most teams and their striker MEMPHIS DEPAY scored 8 goals in the qualifiers - only HAALAND score more.


 
 
 

1 Comment


Lunas
Jun 16

Brilliant breakdown, Nic. Love how your model has consistently predicted the winners since 2014 by weighting recent tournament form. I completely agree with your assessment on Spain being under-priced at $6.00—their directness post-Euro 2024 has been a game-changer. I’ve been running similar predictive odds comparison over at Lunas33 to adjust our local staking strategies, and Portugal at $13.00 is definitely the dark horse value bet here. Thanks for sharing the $1000 staking blueprint!

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