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Here are the recent ratings and career peaks for star gallopers AMELIA’S JEWEL and ANTINO ahead of Saturday’s Group 1 Toorak Handicap [1600m] at Caulfield.
The duo currently occupies 65% of the market for the Toorak Handicap
AMELIA’S JEWEL [pictured] is the $2 [50% winning chance] favourite while ANITNO’s best price is $6.50 [15%]
The Beaten Favourite sources its sectional data Punting Form to create our basic ratings system. Their Time v Benchmark rating is based on the national average for that distance. EG a rating of -4.7 means the horse’s overall time for that distance is 4.7L faster than the national average
Here is a snapshot of each horses career with commentary on each
CAREER PEAK
Peak Time Rating was at 1600m where she ran 11.9L faster than the national benchmark off a fast tempo
It came at her 2nd run from a 154-day spell
RECENT
She’s coming off a career peak Time Rating, there is a small risk of a flat run given the shape of that race
You will note her Time Ratings have been on an upward spiral at her past four starts
FUTURE
Our forecast is that she will hold her peak rating with perhaps a fast tempo allowing her another 1L improvement to around 13L faster than national benchmark
CAREER PEAK
Peak Time Rating was at 1600m where he ran 10.7L faster than the national benchmark off an even tempo
It came at his 4th run back from a 105-day spell
RECENT
Last start recorded a winning time that was 8.8L faster than the national benchmark for 1500m races
This is his second-best rating of his career
FUTURE
Our forecast suggests ANTINO runs a career peak Time Rating on Saturday in the Toorak Hcp. Given his weight of 54kg, we’d suggest he could run somewhere in the vicinity of 12L – 13L faster than the national benchmark for 1600m races
SUMMARY
AMELIA’S JEWEL has a superior peak rating to ANTINO
She carried 56.5kg registering her peak, ANTINO carried 59kg
The key to assessing Group 1 Handicap races is factoring in weight changes
AMELIA'S JEWEL will carry 56kg in the Toorak Handicap whereas ANTINO carries 54kg
A drop of 5kg off his peak rating, presents ANTINO with an opportunity to run a faster overall Time Rating
With respect to this, TBF forecast is for both gallopers to run around 13L faster than the national benchmark for mile races
This makes the $6.50 for ANTINO a clear early play
Our Top Rated runner for the Toorak Handicap will be made official when final field and barrier draw is announced on Wednesday
Here are our stats for Top Rated selections in every Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan races since September 22
We tip in every race bar 2YO events with stacks of first starters and minimal data
If you had $100 on every Top rated horse you would have outlaid $8,900 and collected $11,310
This is a profit of 27% on turnover for level stakes
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