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Writer's pictureNic Ashman

UPDATE: RATINGS, HISTORY, MAP

The TBF database has crunched the numbers landing on two horses at double figures for Saturday’s Group 1 Memsie Stakes [1400m] at Caulfield

MR BRIGHTSIDE aims to become the first horse since REGAL ROLLER in 2004 to win the PB Lawrence Stakes – Memsie Stakes double in the same year


He resumed with a career-peak fresh rating of 93 suggesting he’s ready for a huge spring


He’s the punters elect at $3.30 and is looking to become the 12th favourite in 20 years to win the race


But he'll need to be good as he drew gate 15 and with a short run to the first turn, he's likely to cover ground


The dual Doncaster Mile winner has an arduous campaign that involves a trip to Sydney for the new $5million King Charles [1600m] before another crack at Australasia’s weight-for-age championship, the Cox Plate [2040m]


Since the turn of the century only 3 horses have won the Memsie Stakes/Cox Plate double - SO YOU THINK [2010], MAKYBE DIVA [2005], SUNLINE [2001]


Mr Brightside shares the best career peak rating with three rivals in this year's Memsie Stakes

I WISH I WIN smashed the clock when resuming last campaign in the G1 Lighting Stakes


That was 1000m up the straight, this is 1400m around a bend but he didn’t rate below 94 in 3 runs last prep


Interestingly, he’s 1 of 5 horses in this field that are resuming from a spell and have run a career peak when first-up. ANNAVISTO, GENTLEMAN ROY, MY OBERON, NONCONFORMIST round out that list


Here’s a look at the history of the race; the best path to get there and what it takes to win the Memsie Stakes

5 of the last 10 winners have been 1UP with spells ranging from 63 days [SNAPDANCER, 2022] to 490 days [ATLANTIC JEWEL 2013]


The average winning rating during this time is 92.8 and only SCALES OF JUSTICE has been deeper than 2UP. He won 3UP after winning the Bletchingly Stakes before finishing 2nd in the Spring Stakes


Should I WISH I WIN run to his figures last prep then he should be favourite. But MR BRIGHTSIDE posted 93 when resuming and any improvement puts him right alongside Peter Moody’s jet


Ratings say I WISH I WIN is slightly better but MR BRIGHTSIDE is slightly fitter


On Monday we had this pair as the standouts but they each have map issues that appear to diminish their respective winning chances


Here's a look at where the winners came from on Memsie Stakes day last year


The 2023 speed map sees PRINCESS GRACE and OSIPENKO get lovely the runs in transit - the latter needs to hold a spot to the outside of I WISH I WIN


We have NONCONFORMIST on their backs around midfield. He can sprint hard often clocking low 11s late in his races. A healthy $91 is currently on offer


Good luck!





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