2026 CAULFIELD CUP: Preview & Tips

Andy G

16 hours ago

4 min read

https://video.wixstatic.com/video/96c862_f5a4fb399b8e44cebe6838cc43518916/1080p/mp4/file.mp4

2026 CAULFIELD CUP DETAILS

DATE: Saturday October 17

VENUE: Caulfield

DISTANCE: 2400m

CONDITIONS: Handicap

PRIZE MONEY: $6,545,000

As the racing world turns its attention to the 150th running of the Caulfield Cup, a capacity field of stayers will battle it out over 2400m Australia's most prestigious handicap, chasing a place in racing history at Caulfield.

The Caulfield Cup, first run in 1879, is a 2400m handicap that has been contested over the same distance throughout its history. Elevated to G1 status in 1979, it is the world's richest race of its kind, offering over $6.5 million in prizemoney in 2026.
Among the race's most celebrated champions are EURYTHMIC (1920), GALILEE (1966), TOBIN BRONZE (1967), LET'S ELOPE (1991), MIGHT AND POWER (1997), NORTHERLY (2002) and VERRY ELLEEGANT (2020).
The legendary TULLOCH became the shortest-priced winner in Caulfield Cup history when he saluted as a $1.67 Favourite in 1957 as a 3YO, setting both race and track records along the way.

POSITION IN RUN | LEAD-UP FORM

PEAK FITNESS MATTERS: 20 of the past 35 winners were either 4UP or 5UP, suggesting race fitness is a major factor.

LAST-START FORM USUALLY COUNTS: 20 winners since 1991 placed at their previous start. However, the trend has shifted recently, with the past 4 winners all failing to place in their final lead-up run.

FOLLOW THE TURNBULL STAKES: The Turnbull has been the dominant lead-up race, producing 15 winners since 1991, including 4 of the past 6.

MIDFIELD RUNNERS HOLD THE EDGE: 8 of the past 12 winners settled 6th or worse in running, including 5 who were positioned 11th or further back. A strong tempo often gives horses settling off the speed their chance to launch a sustained run.

NIC ASHMAN'S ANALYSIS

"KINGSWOOD has to come across from his wide gate. Perhaps KNIGHTS CHOICE goes with him to avoid being 3 wide no cover? He averaged 12.3 second per 200m through the first section of last Saturday's Herbert Power - if he goes that speed again, he'll be right up there. He's right back in form and brings the second best last start rating to this race - not bad for a $51 pop! If THE EUPHRATES gains a start, he could lead them all. Unsure what the MAHER stable do with their on-pace trio - ROYAL SUPREMACY, ZAHRANN and SAINT GEORGE. Think they all land top 6 to 8. ZAHRANN could park to the outside of SAINT GEORGE and ROYAL SUPREMACY could cross them both to ensure he gets in. ZAHRANN was terrific winning the Naturalism and reaffirmed he is a wet track duffer in the Turnbull Stakes. Ethan Brown also said the horse got his tongue over the bit (hence the tongue tie on). He's the horse to beat for mine. TREASURETHE MOMENT/HALF YOURS get the gun-runs but are they going good enough? COSMIC CRUSADER either goes right back or risks being wide, which is less than ideal when you're on trial at 2400m. KINGS VALLEY with a smother could explode late.

"I will send out a Track Report via Turf Notes on Saturday morning. If you didn't receive this via email then CLICK HERE to register for Free."

NIC'S $100 PLAY

#16 ZAHRANN $40W

#19 THE EUPHRATES $20W

#5 KNIGHTS CHOICE $10EW

#18 KINGS VALLEY $10EW

RACE SHAPE HISTORY

MELBOURNE CUP BLUEPRINT: WITHOUT A FIGHT (2023) and HALF YOURS (2025) are the only two winners on this list to complete the Caulfield–Melbourne Cup double in the same year. Both were subjected to a BRUTAL tempo and recorded faster-than-standard overall times, particularly WITHOUT A FIGHT, who clocked 0.97 seconds inside standard. The searching 2400m test provided an ideal platform for the gruelling 3200m at Flemington.

TIME v STANDARD: Measures how many seconds faster or slower a race was run compared to the standard for its track, distance, track condition and race class. Negative figures indicate faster than standard; positive figures indicate slower. A faster early tempo generally produces a faster overall race time.

WINNING STATS

THE PRIME AGE BRACKET: 23 of the past 35 winners have been 4YOs or 5YOs. Just 5 horses aged 7YO or older have won since 1991, the most recent being WITHOUT A FIGHT (2023).

ZAHRANN FAN? HISTORY SAYS YES: Favourites have won 12 editions since 1991, including 3 of the past 6. Backing every Favourite for 1 unit over that period would have produced a remarkable +24-unit profit and 68.6% POT from 35 units invested.

$10 TO $14 SWEET SPOT: 7 of the last 13 winners that weren't favourite started between $10 and $14.

LIGHTWEIGHTS HOLD THE EDGE: 23 winners of the last 35 winners have carried 54.5kg or less.

BARRIER SWEET SPOT: 15 winners since 1991 have jumped from Barriers 5–9, including 4 of the past 6. Remarkably, Barrier 1 hasn't produced a winner in 35 years.

COSMIC PIKE: Willy Pike has an extraordinary 49 wins from 150 rides this season at 32.7%. Even hotter recently, booting home 38 winners from his last 100 rides and beating market expectations by 44%. Something for the COSMIC CRUSADER fans.

THE IDEAL CAULFIELD CUP PROFILE: A 4YO or 5YO carrying 54.5kg or less, drawn between Barriers 5–9 and capable of settling midfield. Market history points towards either a well-supported Favourite or a value runner between $10 and $14, ideally coming off a last-start placing.

The most compelling criteria for us was;