THE EVEREST | What Makes A Winner?
Less than a week until The Everest! With the final field and barrier draw still to come, we examine nine years of winners to uncover the key trends in lead-up form, stage of preparation, running positions, odds and barriers.
WEATHER & TRACK PREDICTION (as at Sunday 11 Oct)
BIG WET COMING?: Sydney faces a potentially wet Everest week, with up to 55mm forecast from Monday to Saturday including 10mm on raceday.
TBF TRACK PREDICTOR: We're forecasting a Soft 6 on Saturday morning. How much further the track deteriorates will depend on raceday rainfall.
POSITION IN RUN/LEAD-UP FORM
SWEET SPOT: All nine Everest winners were second or third-up. None were first-up or fourth-up and beyond.
BRING GOOD FORM: Eight of nine winners finished top three at their previous start. REDZEL (2018) was the only exception.
KEY LEAD-UPS: The G2 Premiere and G2 The Shorts have produced six of nine Everest winners.
ON PACERS: More than 50% of winners settled in the first three.
RACE SHAPE HISTORY
WET TRACKS = PRESSURE: Only two Everests (2018 and 2022) were run on genuinely wet ground. Both recorded negative PACE PROFILES, indicating greater early pressure than normal.
RECENTLY OFF THE PACE: The last three Everests (2023–2025) have all recorded positive PACE PROFILES, indicating less early pressure than the historical Randwick 1200m average.
WHAT IS PACE PROFILE? It compares how each Everest was run against the historical average (PAR) for Randwick over 1200m. Negative figures indicate faster early speed, while positive figures indicate less early pressure and a faster finish.
WINNING STATS
BEWARE THE 4YO: No 4YO has won the race. Four of nine winners were 5YOs. Three-year-olds have won twice.
DRAW NO BARRIER: Five of nine winners jumped from gate 6 or wider, including NATURE STRIP (10) and BELLA NIPOTINA (11).
MARKET FINDS THEM: Eight of nine winners started at single-digit odds, including four favourites. GIGA KICK (2022) was the only double-figure winner.
McEVOY LEADS THE WAY: Kerrin McEvoy has ridden three winners; Craig Williams has two. Together, they’ve won five of nine editions.
TRAINERS SHARE THE SPOILS: Seven different trainers or partnerships have won in nine years. P. & P. Snowden and Chris Waller lead with two wins apiece.
THE EVEREST WINNING FORMULA
History points towards a horse that races on speed, is second or third-up and starts at single-digit odds.
How many of this year's contenders will tick all three boxes?
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Good Punting!
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