CHAMPIONS STAKES | The G1 Blueprint
Start with the Cox Plate. It’s still the strongest lead-up to the Champions Stakes, but the winner’s profile has changed since the 2016 move to Stakes Day. Mares have won half the editions, half the winners settled sixth or worse, and 80% were fourth, fifth or sixth-up.
CHAMPIONS STAKES
Distance: 2000m
Class: Group 1
Age: 3YO+
Conditions: WFA
THE COX PLATE BACK-UP BECAME A FORTNIGHT
When the race was run as the Mackinnon Stakes on Derby Day, Cox Plate runners had seven days between runs. In 2016, the VRC moved it to Stakes Day, the last of the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival. That gave Cox Plate runners a fortnight between races.
The longer gap hasn’t changed which lead-up to look at first. The Cox Plate supplied 57% of winners before the move and 50% since. AWESOME ROCK won the first edition on Stakes Day after running fifth in the Cox Plate. ARCADIA QUEEN also came off a fifth and ZAAKI a fourth, while VIA SISTINA completed the double twice. A beaten run in the Cox Plate still warrants a close look, particularly if the horse maps better at Flemington.
MARES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER RECORD
Mares accounted for around 9% of winners before the move and 50% since. VIA SISTINA’s two wins contribute to that shift, alongside wins by MAGIC WAND, ARCADIA QUEEN and ATISHU.
MORE WINNERS ARE COMING FROM OFF THE SPEED
Half the winners since the switch settled sixth or worse, up from about a third when the race was in the Derby Day slot.
VIA SISTINA and ATISHU both won from beyond midfield, but the share of winners who led has held at around 30%. ZAAKI led in both his wins. Give a horse that can control the tempo its due, and look for runners with cover when there’s pressure up front.
WINNERS ARE ARRIVING EARLIER IN THEIR PREPARATIONS
The old pattern strongly favoured horses deep into a campaign. About 83% of Derby Day winners were fifth to seventh-up, compared with 60% since the switch.
ZAAKI won both times fourth-up and MAGIC WAND won third-up. Fifth or sixth-up is still a common profile under the current schedule, with more room for a horse earlier in its prep.
GROUP 1 FORM STILL HOLDS UP
Around 90% of winners in each era came off a Group 1 run. The Caulfield Cup was the main alternative to the Cox Plate in the Derby Day era.
Since the switch, the winning alternatives have been more varied. ATISHU came through the Empire Rose Stakes, ZAAKI’s first win followed a third in the Caulfield Stakes, and MAGIC WAND dropped back from the Melbourne Cup. The market has also remained a useful guide, with 80% of winners since the move starting at $10 or shorter.
THE BLUEPRINT
Start with the Cox Plate. It has produced half the winners since the move to Stakes Day, so look past the finishing position. Zero in on runners fourth, fifth or sixth-up and $10 or shorter. Since the switch, 80% of winners have fit the preparation profile and 80% have fit the price profile. Put mares with Group 1 form high on the shortlist. They’ve won half the editions under the current schedule.
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