COX PLATE | What Makes A Winner?
Updated: 2 hours ago
Modern-era Cox Plate results reveal a clear profile: 80% of winners settle 3rd to 7th, while close to two-thirds are fourth or fifth-up. Our database highlights the key trends across age, preparation, lead-up form and race position.
COX PLATE
Distance: 2040m (2000m @Flemington)
Class: Group 1
Age: 3YO+
Conditions: WFA
DO BARRIERS MATTER?
Four in five modern-era winners jumped from barriers 1–7. Just five came from double-figure gates. Perhaps that changes at Flemington in 2026?
HOW FIT DO THEY NEED TO BE?
Close to two-thirds were fourth or fifth-up. Fourth-up supplied the most winners, narrowly ahead of fifth-up.
TYPICAL RACE SHAPE?
The average Finishing Speed Percentage (FS%) is 101.8%. But around one in three Cox Plates sees the winner record an FS% below 100% - a hallmark of a fast or even brutal tempo.
FS% compares the winner’s average 200m split for the end of their race against their average 200m split for the whole race. Above 100% means they finished faster; below 100% means they finished slower. FS% varies depending on track and distance but usually sits between 101%-103%.
WHAT’S THE IDEAL AGE?
Four-year-olds lead the way with more than a third of winners. Four, five and six-year-olds combined account for just over 70%.
WHERE DO WINNERS SETTLE?
Usually a 14-horse field, more than 70% settled in the first six. About half of them in the first three. It's a good race to be forward of midfield.
HOW IMPORTANT IS LEAD-UP FORM?
Three-quarters of winners finished in the first three at their previous start. Close to half won that lead-up.
WHICH LEAD-UP RACES WORK BEST?
The Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes supplied just over half the winners between them but the Turnbull is by far the best in recent times being the lead-up race for around 80% of Australian-trained horses.
DO OUTSIDERS WIN?
Being a WFA race, weaker horses don't get a weight relief making it harder for them to beat the good horses. Close to 70% of winners started at $10 or shorter and more than 90% were under $20.
HOW DO THE MARES STACK UP?
Mares supplied just over a third of winners. Bolstered by WINX, SUNLINE and VIA SISTINA, who account for eight of the last 12 victories for the girls.
WHAT’S THE WINNING PROFILE?
Drawn 1–7, fourth or fifth-up and coming off a top-three finish. The Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes are the key launchpads, with most winners starting at $10 or shorter.
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