Cup Day Quaddie | Nov 4

Here is your analysis of the Quaddie for racing at Flemington on Tuesday, November 4.

Chris Waller has 4 Melbourne Cup runners

How Quaddie Hunter works;

We’ll provide a preview of each leg separating the chances into 3 categories;

BEST = Best winning chance(s)

DANGERS = Most likely challenger(s)

LONGSHOTS = Winning chance(s) $10+

The VERDICT is our top selection for the race.

Play the numbers in the preview or follow the summary.

R7 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP (3200 m)

1 4211 AL RIFFA M Zahra (19) ($8.50)

2 3232 BUCKAROO C Williams (12) ($9.00)

3 6408 ARAPAHO R King (15) ($41)

4 3650 VAUBAN B Shinn (2) ($26)

5 0700 CHEVALIER ROSE D Lane (5) ($34)

6 3X34 PRESAGE NOCTURNE S Pasquier (9) ($9.00)

7 0903 MIDDLE EARTH E Brown (13) ($41)

8 5239 MEYDAAN J McDonald (22) ($20)

9 3237 ABSURDE K McEvoy (4) ($19)

10 1411 FLATTEN THE CURVE T Hammer Hansen (17) ($20)

11 9500 LAND LEGEND J Moreira (16) ($61)

12 2948 SMOKIN’ ROMANS B Melham (11) ($61)

13 2106 CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD T Clark (24) ($61)

14 5141 HALF YOURS J Melham (8) ($7.00)

15 0944 MORE FELONS T Berry (23) ($41)

16 8401 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR H Coffey (6) ($29)

17 2516 FURTHUR M Dee (7) ($29)

18 311X PARCHMENT PARTY J Velazquez (3) ($61)

19 0002 ATHABASCAN D Bates (1) ($81)

20 113X GOODIE TWO SHOES W Lordan (20) ($34)

21 7802 RIVER OF STARS B Mertens (14) ($18)

22 1215 ROYAL SUPREMACY R Dolan (21) ($29)

23 0821 TORRANZINO C Gaudray (18) ($34)

24 X013 VALIANT KING J McNeil (10) ($8.50)

BEST

(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE — Following the exact path as France’s 2011 Cup winner Dunaden. Strong in a dash home in the Prix Kergorlay, then solid in the Caulfield Cup behind HALF YOURS. Meets him 2.5kg better and will relish 3200m on soft ground.

(14) HALF YOURS — Honest and progressive. Beaten narrowly in the Turnbull by future Cox Plate champ Via Sistina, then outstanding in the Caulfield Cup. Genuine stayer with all the right credentials.

(1) AL RIFFA — Blinkers brought him to life in the Hardwicke when closing for second, then bolted in twice at the Curragh with winkers on. Handles wet ground and looks set for a big run at his first crack beyond 2800m.

DANGERS

(24) VALIANT KING — Blinkers have turned his form right around. Found the line stylishly in high-pressure races and gets in light.

(23) TORRANZINO — Seasoned stayer who thrives on hard racing. Comes in rock-hard fit and profiles like a Cup horse.

(21) RIVER OF STARS — Best of the on pacers in the Caulfield Cup. If she repeats that effort, she’s capable of running into the money again.

LONGSHOTS

(8) MEYDAAN — Tough effort in the Caulfield Cup and likely to appreciate the long, flat stretches of Flemington. Only query is running out a strong two miles.

(4) VAUBAN — No luck in the Metropolitan when ridden too close. Expect improvement if allowed to switch off and relax.

VERDICT

(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE to follow in Dunaden’s footsteps and capture the 2025 Melbourne Cup.

Summary: 6 – 14 – 1 – 24 – 23

R8 1400 m

1 32X0 HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT M Zahra (9) ($29)

2 X216 NAVY PILOT J McDonald (4) ($6.50)

3 2215 GRAND PRAIRIE T Berry (13) ($9.50)

4 1321 BACASH M Dee (14) ($5.50)

5 X262 VEGA FOR LUCK J Mott (10) ($29)

6 X349 MISS CELINE L Currie (1) ($51)

7 3X14 RIPLEY E Brown (15) ($6.50)

8 X212 BURMA STAR J Moreira (7) ($9.00)

9 18X8 KALEO J Allen (16) ($81)

10 313 SULEK C Williams (2) ($13)

11 3X1 KATSUMI OROCHI T Clark (11) ($19)

12 2113 TAGLINE D Stackhouse (6) ($41)

13 2713 PICTOR D Lane (5) ($23)

14 5X61 SIR MYKA J Melham (3) ($67)

15 21 LUDLUM J Childs (12) ($5.00)

16 1X42 TRIPLE MALT — Scratched

17 — COMMON INTEREST K McEvoy (8) ($126)

BEST

(8) BURMA STAR — Dominant maiden win on a heavy 10 then proved equally adept on top of the ground, splitting older rivals Golden Straand and Bartolf who both won next start. Trialled impressively since.

(15) LUDLUM — Had no luck on debut before atoning with a tough Seymour win from a wide run. Keeps improving, maps for a soft midfield spot and shapes as the main danger.

(2) NAVY PILOT — Dropping back to 1400m looks perfect. Felt the pinch late in the Guineas after being pushed forward early. Should stalk the speed and finish strongly.

DANGERS

(11) KATSUMI OROCHI — Changed stables after a strong debut win at Caulfield, then charged over the top in good time at Pakenham. Still untapped and can measure up.

(3) GRAND PRAIRIE — Closed against the pattern in the Ming Dynasty before being freshened. Has the turn of foot to figure if tempo is genuine.

LONGSHOTS

(13) PICTOR — Honest type who draws perfectly and can sneak into the finish with the right run.

(14) SIR MYKA — Won well last start and gets a kind draw again. Each-way chance if track favours on-speed runners.

VERDICT

(8) BURMA STAR to stamp himself as a rising talent.

Summary: 8 – 15 – 2 – 11 – 3

R9 1400 m

1 4X23 FANCIFY J Melham (14) ($9.00)

2 0X76 SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ B Shinn (2) ($17)

3 4711 DANCE TO THE BOOM K McEvoy (16) ($12)

4 248X POUNCE — Scratched

5 9563 BOSSY NIC J Moreira (5) ($13)

6 6X67 ROLL ON HIGH D Stackhouse (9) ($29)

7 313X ELECTRIC IMPULSE J Allen (1) ($26)

8 060X ETERNAL FLAME E Brown (12) ($51)

9 609X COCO JAMBOO J Mott (15) ($26)

10 5822 GUMDROPS J McDonald (8) ($7.50)

11 0312 KEEP YOUR COOL C Williams (10) ($12)

12 3148 STYLISH M Dee (18) ($34)

13 8848 FLYER Z Spain (17) ($151)

14 0546 PONDALOWIE L Nolen (4) ($16)

15 7111 SURFIN’ BIRD T Clark (6) ($2.50)

16 5754 JENNI THE FOX D Bates (7) ($23)

17 2323 ENNA’S DREAM N/A (11) ($61)

18 5X01 KIRRIBILLI L Nolen (13) ($41)

19 2525 PERFECT PICTURE D Lane (3) ($41)

BEST

(15) SURFIN’ BIRD — Bolted in last start, running time well above average for the day and rating through the roof. On-speed pattern suits again and Tim Clark’s tempo control makes her the one they all have to run down.

(10) GUMDROPS — Flying without winning. Has been unlucky in slowly run races and ready for a genuine tempo to unleash her finish. Drawn ideally to stalk the speed.

(14) PONDALOWIE — Consistent mare who’s been powering home from deep in the field all prep. Dropping back to 1400m and a faster pace will bring her right into it.

DANGERS

(5) BOSSY NIC — Every hope in the Tristarc but still good enough to rate well here. Maps to sit closer and has the class to feature.

(9) COCO JAMBOO — First-up for a new stable in the Tatt’s Tiara was excellent. Much better suited now at 1400m against her own sex.

(3) DANCE TO THE BOOM — Tough and genuine, just needs a good steer from the wide draw. Can push forward and give a sight.

LONGSHOTS

(12) STYLISH — Capable mare who flies fresh and has a sharp turn of foot. Expect her to be steaming home if they overdo it up front.

VERDICT

(15) SURFIN’ BIRD to keep her hot streak rolling and make it four straight in The Matron.

Summary: 15 – 10 – 14 – 5 – 9

R10 1400 m

1 813X VERDAD B Melham (15) ($26)

2 5510 WINDSTORM B Shinn (14) ($29)

3 3X11 NDOLA L Currie (10) ($6.50)

4 X025 COTEHELE D Lane (7) ($29)

5 4967 RHEINBERG M Dee (16) ($26)

6 1X23 SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET E Brown (8) ($5.50)

7 22X6 SABAJ M Zahra (3) ($2.70)

8 X628 SO RISQUE D Stackhouse (9) ($34)

9 4419 GALA QUEEN C Williams (4) ($19)

10 X255 LE FERRARI T Clark (2) ($21)

11 X154 PERSIAN SPIRIT H Coffey (17) ($8.00)

12 766X SIR DAVY J Stanley (12) ($81)

13 4313 HE’LL RIP L Riordan (6) ($19)

14 77X9 NOSTRINGSATTACHED T Berry (11) ($41)

15 5X01 KIRRIBILLI L Nolen (13) ($29)

16 X777 TEN COMMANDMENTS T Nugent (1) ($101)

17 5036 BOLTSAVER J McNeil (5) ($67)

18 9136 JUGIONG N/A (18) ($81)

BEST

(7) SABAJ — Ran a beauty in the Silver Eagle first-up for the new stable, buried away on the rail and flashing late once clear. Strips fitter, gets a better draw, and looks ready to peak.

(11) PERSIAN SPIRIT — Shock first-up winner at 1100m who proved it was no fluke by sticking on behind Naval Academy at Geelong. Should thrive up to 1400m.

(6) SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET — Had to wait for gaps behind Ndola at Caulfield yet still surged into third. Genuine improver with clear running and hard to knock consistency.

DANGERS

(3) NDOLA — Continues to build the right profile. Held up slightly last start but accelerated sharply when clear. Big threat if conditions suit.

(1) VERDAD — Big weight and awkward draw, but his closing work in recent starts has been solid. Could surprise if tempo is strong.

LONGSHOTS

(9) GALA QUEEN — Drops back to her pet trip and gets a cosy draw. Sneaky knockout chance if she lands midfield with cover.

VERDICT

(7) SABAJ to go one better second-up and claim the Chatham Stakes.

Summary: 7 – 11 – 6 – 3 – 9

TBF QUADDIE – FLEMINGTON

R7 — 6 – 14 – 1 – 24 – 23

R8 — 8 – 15 – 2 – 11 – 3

R9 — 15 – 10 – 14 – 5 – 9

R10 — 7 – 11 – 6 – 3 – 9

Combinations: 5 × 5 × 5 × 5 = 625 combinations

Good luck and Happy Punting!

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