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Writer's pictureNic Ashman

MONDAY: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Monday’s meeting at Grafton.

TRACK

HEAVY


TRACKWALKER INFO

Lanes 1,2 inferior to the wider Lanes and we think you are best served looking for horses that can settle with cover, off rail and blend into the race at the top of the straight


KEY STAT

Jockey Andrew Mallyon is showing a great affinity for Grafton having struck at 44% over the past year

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.


BARRIERS

1000m – Short run to the turn, wide gate can cover ground but wary we don’t want to be on the fence so looking for mid gates over this trip at this meeting


NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 3 No.2 CHARMED DESTINY

“First run in this area saw this ex-Victorian go down as a beaten favourite [love saying that term]. But it was over a shorter trip and he looks better suited back up in distance with that run under the belt”


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