NRL 2026 - R18 Preview

Here are the stats and predictions for the upcoming round of the NRL.

These are the notes I use for 2GB radio and other media gigs for NRL updates.

PANTHERS V RABBITOHS — FRIDAY 8:00PM @ COMMBANK STADIUM

South Sydney hold a slender 49-48 lead overall, but Penrith have taken control in recent meetings. The Panthers won 30-10 at Commbank in 2025 and lead the last five clashes 3-2.

Penrith are renowned for their fast starts, winning the first half in each of their last 10 home games. Their three victories over South Sydney during the last five meetings have all come by margins of 20 points or more, suggesting they can put games away quickly.

TIP: PANTHERS TO WIN FIRST HALF / PANTHERS -4.5 $2.25

DRAGONS V TIGERS — SATURDAY 3:00PM @ JUBILEE STADIUM

The Dragons lead the overall rivalry 25-22 and hold a 5-2 advantage at Jubilee Stadium, although the clubs haven't met there since 2018. Both Tigers victories at the venue came by eight points or fewer.

St George Illawarra also lead the last five meetings 3-2 and receive a further boost with Jarome Luai unavailable for Wests. That leaves the Dragons well placed to continue their strong record in this fixture.

TIP: DRAGONS TO WIN

BRONCOS V SHARKS — SATURDAY 7:35PM @ SUNCORP STADIUM

Brisbane lead the overall record 41-23 and hold a 13-7 advantage over Cronulla at Suncorp Stadium. The recent history at the venue has been far more even, however, with the clubs splitting the last four meetings.

The Broncos also hold a 3-2 edge across the last five clashes overall. One player who continually performs in this fixture is Siosifa Talakai, who has crossed for a try in each of his last three games against Brisbane.

TIP: S TALAKAI ATS $7.50

MANLY V EELS — SUNDAY 2:00PM @ COMMBANK STADIUM

Manly have dominated the rivalry overall, leading 91-59, but Parramatta have enjoyed the better of recent meetings at Commbank Stadium, winning six of the last seven played there.

Lehi Hopoate has developed an impressive record against the Eels, scoring four tries across his last three appearances. Despite Parramatta's strong venue record, Manly have enough firepower to edge another close contest.

TIP: MANLY 1-12 / L HOPOATE ATS $4.56

KNIGHTS V DOLPHINS — SUNDAY 4:05PM @ McDONALD JONES STADIUM

Newcastle lead the overall series 5-1 and hold a 2-1 advantage at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Both sides have been heavily impacted by State of Origin selections, creating an opportunity for others to step up. Dylan Brown has enjoyed this matchup, scoring in each of his last two games against the Dolphins, and looks a genuine value play to continue that streak.

TIP: KNIGHTS / D BROWN ATS $6.50

VALUE: D BROWN 2+ TRIES $26.00

STATE OF ORIGIN III — WEDNESDAY 8:05PM @ SUNCORP STADIUM

Queensland lead the all-time Origin ledger 73-62 and have won 19 of the 32 matches played at Suncorp Stadium. Despite the hostile environment, New South Wales have handled deciders on the road well, winning the last two played outside NSW.

History also suggests points could be at a premium. No Origin decider has produced more than 38 total points since 2019, while Bradman Best arrives with tries in his last two Origin appearances.

TIP: UNDER 44.5PTS / B BRADMAN BEST ATS $6.70