NRL 2026 - Round 4 Preview

Here are the stats and predictions for the upcoming round of the NRL.

These are the notes I use for 2GB radio and other media gigs for NRL updates.

THURSDAY MANLY v ROOSTERS – Brookvale Oval

Manly hold a strong historical edge in this matchup, leading 95–59 overall and 42–17 at Brookvale. The Roosters did win the most recent clash here 20–4 and have taken four of the last five meetings, including the last three, so recent form leans their way.

This shapes as a classic Brookvale test where Manly’s edges tend to see plenty of ball, particularly through Haumole Olakau’atu on the right.

TIP

MANLY / OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRY SCORER $5.50

FRIDAY WARRIORS v TIGERS – Go Media Stadium

The Warriors have dominated this fixture, winning their last 10 clashes and holding a 58% overall strike rate, which jumps to 69% at home. They’ve consistently controlled territory in these games, which has translated into points out wide.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has been a standout, scoring in every game he’s played against the Tigers since 2023, benefiting from the Warriors’ strong edge play.

TIP

WARRIORS / ZELEZNIAK 2+ TRIES $4.33

FRIDAY BRONCOS v DOLPHINS – Suncorp Stadium

Despite Brisbane leading the head-to-head 5–1, this has been a far tighter matchup than that suggests, with total points sitting at 134–122. Most clashes have been tight, with the exception of the Dolphins’ 40–6 win in August 2024.

Jake Averillo has proven a real threat, scoring four tries in three games against the Broncos, particularly when the Dolphins shift the ball early.

TIP

EITHER TEAM BY 10.5 POINTS OR LESS / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRY SCORER $4.91

SATURDAY BULLDOGS v KNIGHTS – Accor Stadium

The Bulldogs lead 10–7 at Accor Stadium and come into this against a Knights side that has struggled against quality opposition, losing their last 11 games against top-four teams.

Josh Curran has been effective on the edge, scoring two tries in his last three games against Newcastle, and should again see opportunities through that channel.

TIP

BULLDOGS / JOSH CURRAN ANYTIME TRY SCORER $5.75

SATURDAY PANTHERS v EELS – CommBank Stadium

Penrith have built a strong record at this venue, winning their last three at CommBank and leading 4–3 overall here. Parramatta’s last win at the ground came back in March 2023, and even that was narrow.

The Panthers have become ruthless against lower-ranked sides, winning their last seven in that bracket, while the Eels have conceded 104 points across three games. Penrith’s defence has been elite, conceding just 10 points so far this season.

This matchup typically stays controlled, with neither side scoring more than 36 points in a clash since 2021.

TIP

PANTHERS 13+ / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS $3.87

SATURDAY COWBOYS v STORM – Townsville

The Cowboys have won three of the last five clashes and hold a 3–2 edge in Townsville. This fixture tends to produce points, with each of the last five meetings reaching at least 46 total points.

Nick Meaney has been a consistent try-scorer in this matchup, scoring in four of the last five, while Murray Taulagi has crossed in his last three against Melbourne.

Expect both edges to be heavily involved.

TIP

OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / NICK MEANEY ANYTIME TRY SCORER / MURRAY TAULAGI ANYTIME TRY SCORER $4.22

SUNDAY RAIDERS v SHARKS – GIO Stadium

This is one of the tightest matchups in the NRL, with the Sharks leading 47–43 overall and just 81 points separating the sides across 90 games. At GIO Stadium, Canberra lead 19–17.

Scoring is typically controlled, with seven of the last eight games producing 44 points or fewer, pointing to a tight, grinding contest.

TIP

EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS $2.98

SUNDAY TITANS v DRAGONS – Cbus Super Stadium

Both sides are struggling, with neither recording a win in 2026 and just one victory between them across their last 10 games combined. The Dragons lead the overall record 21–11 and hold a slight 7–6 edge at Cbus.

Points have been hard to come by, with neither side scoring more than 20 in a game this season.

Expect a low-quality but controlled contest.

TIP

DRAGONS / UNDER 54.5 TOTAL POINTS $3.12