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Writer's pictureNic Ashman

PAKENHAM: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Thursday’s meeting at Pakenham.

TRACKWALKER INFO

Lanes 1,2 inferior to Lanes 3+ with the sweet spot being Lanes 4-8. We’d suggest looking for horses that settle off rail with cover and then blend into race at least 3 wide around the turn


KEY STAT

The Waterhouse/Bott stable have been striking at 33% over the past 12 months at Pakenham and you would’ve got 1.5 times your money had you invested equally on each of their runners. When this stable teams up with Jordan Childs they’re white hot with a current A2E of 1.60. They combine with NARVAEZ in R7

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman. This information is supplied to us by Puntingform.com.au


TRACK MAP courtesy of The Great Tipoff

BARRIERS

1200m or less – Chute start, one turn into home straight


NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 6 No.6 TAHLEQUAH

Drops significantly in class after contesting a race during Cup week at Flemington. Her workouts have been strong ahead of her return and this looks a suitable target for her 1UP



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