ROSEHILL NOTES | GOLDEN ROSE DAY
Rosehill has an interesting twist this week.
Off Rail is the play, with Lanes 4-10 expected to provide the bulk of the winners - but don’t automatically assume that means swoopers.
We’re hearing the straight is slightly faster than the bend, which should give horses on pace or within striking distance an edge. They’ll reach the faster ground first and could prove hard to reel in.
What does that mean?
Look for horses settling midfield or slightly better - ideally in the running line.
Who Blooms in the Rose?
GUEST HOUSE is on trial at 1400m in Saturday's Golden Rose and 28 days between runs isn’t ideal for a horse who thrives in high-pressure races. But he has the best peaks ratings. If he finds them, he should win.
ST GOTTHARD would’ve been the one had he drawn gate six or softer. Our Golden Rose Preview with speed map and stats highlighted the last seven winners have drawn six or inside - and plenty of good horses have tried and failed from wider. Sometimes historical stats are irrelevant. I don’t think this one is. My map has him with three main chances ahead of him. Perhaps he’s simply too good anyway?
WARWOVEN has zero knocks. Yes, GUEST HOUSE beat him in both the Golden Slipper and San Domenico, but he had genuine excuses on both occasions. ST GOTTHARD had his back in the Run To The Rose and couldn’t get past him - yes, he strips fitter but it was hardly a gut-buster.
UNDER FOCUS is the big map improver from the Run To The Rose.
Is he good enough?
Let’s Go Surfin' Now... or Later?
There are too many shorties at Rosehill for a Best Bet and you won’t catch me piling into anything early at Caulfield with the way that track is playing!
But I won’t leave you without some punt love.
SURFIN’ BIRD resumes in the Golden Pendant and can absolutely win down on 54kg - although LAZZURA gets the perfect stalking position and may pounce when it matters.
But perhaps SURFIN’ BIRD’s better bet is later.
She’s currently $27 for the Empire Rose and her best win to date came off a hot tempo. If PRIDE OF JENNI turns up at Flemington, she’ll get exactly that.
SURFIN’ BIRD - perhaps her biggest wave is waiting at Cup Week.
🎙️ Manikato Preview, best bets and more on this week’s podcast.
Good Punting.
Nic.
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