Saturday Bets! 2025 Aurie's Star Handicap
- Andy G
- Jul 31
- 3 min read
The first group race of the new season is upon us with the G3 Aurie’s Star Handicap raced over 1200m at Flemington this Saturday.
Named after the 1940 winner Aurie’s Star, who set a record time and carried 64.4kg on the day, the race signifies the emergence of the Spring horses and was often used by Bart Cummings to give his Cup hopefuls a first hit out of the season.
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Form Trainers are Ben, Will & JD Hayes who are beating market expectations by 22% from their last 100 runners with a healthy POT of 15%. The Hayes boys have JOYFUL FORTUNE who will be ridden by Ethan Brown who has exceeded market expectations by 21% in his last 100 rides.
The hottest Trainer/Jockey combo in the Aurie’s Star is the Dwyer/Coffey combo who are 90% above market expectations with a POT of 61%. They team up on COTE ATLANTIQUE for the race.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
Favourites have enjoyed a great record in the race with 9 wins in the past 21 years (43%) – including the last 2 winners.
Punters who have placed $100 on the Favourite each year since 2004 would see a ROI of +$800.
But when the Favourites don’t win, it’s usually a market contender that takes the victory – 10 of the last 11 winners have had SPs of $6 or less.
There have been only 2 winners at double-digit odds in the last 21 years – BROKEN (2013) and SO SI BON (2019).
Since 1995, 20 winners (67%) have jumped from Barriers 5 – 9. This stat has been reinforced in the last 5 years with all 5 winners jumping from Barriers 6 – 8.
6 of the last 10 winners have been in the Top 4 at the 400m
Only 3 Mares have won in the past 30 years. The last was RIGHT TO PARTY in 2024 – the time before that was HULA WONDER in 1999.
8 of the last 12 winners have been 6YO or older.
The lighter the better – 16 of the last 21 winners (76%) have carried 55.5kg or less to victory – including the last 3 winners.
3 of the last 7 winners raced in the Bletchingly Stakes the race prior. All 3 placed in the Bletchingly before going on to win the Aurie’s Star.
The last 4 winners of the Aurie’s Star placed in their last start of the same prep.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:
Under the $6 mark
Jumps from the Barrier 5 – 9 range
Carrying 55.5kg or less
Andy’s Tip: 11. SPLASH BACK $2.45
Favourite starting in Barrier 9 with only 54kg on her back. Winning % against the Mare, however, is looking for 3 wins in a row.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 11. SPLASH BACK $2.45
Love the progression this horse has made and her straight line speed is superb suggesting the 1200m at Flemington could prove ideal. MISS ARIA is another mare with good straight line speed that is yet to be tested down the straight. KING OF ROUSEAU is finally living up to his early hype and his ratings in Sydney are not that far off SPLASH BACK.
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