Saturday Bets! 2025 Australasian Oaks & Robert Sangster Stakes

With 75% of winners of the Australasian Oaks and the Robert Sangster Stakes jumping from Barriers 10 to 16 since 2021, is this a marker that cannot be ignored by punters in 2025?

AUSTRALASIAN OAKS – 2000m – Group 1 – 3YO Fillies: Set Weights

ROBERT SANGSTER STAKES – 1200m – Group 1 – Fillies & Mares: Weight For Age

Saturday Bets! turns its attention to South Australia this weekend as Morphettville hosts two G1s with the running of the Australasian Oaks over 2000m for the 3YO Fillies carrying 56kg and the Robert Sangster Stakes run over 1200m with the Mares carrying 56.5kg and the Fillies carrying 54.5kg.

Both the Oaks and the Sangster commenced in the same period (1982 and 1983 respectively). However, the Oaks was elevated to G1 status almost immediately in 1983 while the Sangster had to wait until 2005 to achieve this level. Nevertheless, both races have been won by some greats with ROSE OF KINGSTON (1982), MANNERISM (1991) and IMPOSERA (1988) winning the Oaks and BLACK CAVIAR (2012), ALINGHI (2005) and WITH ME (1991) winning the Sangster.

Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman are the most successful Trainers of the Oaks winning 4 times. Mick Price is the most successful Trainer of the Sangster also with 4 wins. Leading Jockey for both races is Damien Oliver who has enjoyed 4 victories in the Oaks and 3 victories in the Sangster.

Have the Favourites or the Roughies had more success?

‘Oaks – short-priced contenders; Sangster – longshots…’

Over the past 30 years, Favourites have had a strong historical presence in the Oaks claiming victory on 12 occasions. However, their dominance has noticeably waned in recent times with only two Favourites managing to win in the last decade. The most recent Favourite to salute was TOFFEE TONGUE in 2020.

When examining the SPs of winners, it becomes clear that longshots rarely triumph in the Oaks with only 4 horses with double-digit odds winning the Oaks in the past 20 years. This trend underscores the importance of popular horses in the market with 10 of the last 12 winners having SPs of $7.50 or less indicating horses in the top 3-4 lines of betting are generally successful.

In regards to the Sangster, Favourites have also struggled managing just 6 wins since 1995 – notably the last time a Favourite triumphed in the race was in 2012 when the legendary BLACK CAVIAR claimed victory marking a 13 year drought for market leaders. In contrast to the Oaks, the Sangster has become a haven for outsiders in recent years. Over the past 9 editions of the race, 7 winners have won at spectacular odds with SPs ranging between $12 and $41. This pattern suggests that punters should have the confidence to look beyond the more fancied contenders in the market – and have a crack at a longshot.

What Barriers are most successful?

‘Love being wide in both races…’

Barrier position appears to play a significant role in shaping the outcome of the Oaks with a clear trend emerging over the past 13 editions of the race. Interestingly, middle gates have proven to be the least favourable starting point for contenders. Instead, there has been a strong bias toward runners drawn at the extremes of the barriers. 7 of the last 13 winners have jumped from inside Barriers 1 to 4 while the remaining 6 winners have emerged from wide Barriers 10 to 16 signifying that success can be found from hugging the rail or swooping from a wide position.

In the same 13 year period, the Sangster has shown a striking and consistent bias towards horses drawn in wide barriers with a remarkable 10 winners jumping from Barriers 10 to 16 highlighting a clear advantage for runners starting from the outside. Interestingly, the only other 3 winners during this time all jumped from Barrier 6 further reinforcing the idea that middle and inside barriers are at a distinct historical disadvantage.

To hear Nic's tip for the Australasian Oaks and Robert Sangster Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘Nope – they’ve won from everywhere…’

No distinct pattern for winners in regards to a settling position can be identified in the Oaks, however, 4 winners in the past decade have come from the back – but the last was in 2021.

 The lack of pattern can also be seen in the Sangster, however, with Morphettville looking like a G4 or S5 on Saturday, it is worth noting that 5 of the last 6 winners who raced on a G4 or S5 were in a midfield/off-midfield position coming around the turn.

What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘Another assortment…’

There’s been a wide variety of lead-up races used by Oaks winners over the past decade reflecting the diverse paths horses have taken to succeed in the G1 feature. While no single prep race has dominated, a clear geographical pattern has emerged with most contenders beginning their campaigns in Victoria before making the trip across to South Australia.

Despite the differing preps, one standout trend has become impossible to ignore – hot form matters. All of the last 10 Oaks winners finished in the placings in their final lead-up race with an astonishing 8 of them winning their last start. This consistency highlights the importance of strong recent performances heading into the Oaks and an important stat punters can not ignore.

The Sangster has also delivered an assortment of different preps undertaken by the winners with the last 7 Sangster champions all winning via different lead-up races. One interesting trend noted is that 4 of the past 10 winners came off relatively short spells of 42 to 63 days indicating that a fresh approach may be highly effective.

Fillies have traditionally struggled since 2011 but are starting to make their mark securing 3 wins in the last 7 years. Nonetheless, the race has historically been a sweet spot for 4YO Mares who have dominated with 15 victories since 1995. In contrast, success for 6YO Mares has been rare with just one winning in the last 30 years.

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Andy’s Rundown for both the Australasian Oaks and the Robert Sangster Stakes:

In regards to the Oaks – the top 5 contenders in the market are all stationed in either inside or outside barriers which is spot on with our historical analysis – so it’s a matter of picking the right one – and that seems to be CINCH who is only one of two horses out of the field of 16 that won last start – and we know important hot form has been for previous Oaks winners. Jumping from Barrier 15 and going for 4 wins in a row, CINCH seems like a smart bet. BENEGIL and TOO DARN LIZZIE have both finished second to TREASURETHE MOMENT this prep which is reflected in their market price – the difference is BENEGIL was second over 2000m and TOO DARN LIZZIE was over 1600m. MOVIN OUT won last start too.

In regards to the Sangster – let’s go wide. The 4YO Mare COMMEMORATIVE from Barrier 15 should settle off-midfield and has a fantastic record over the distance. Another 4YO Mare CHARM STONE is starting wide and comes off a short spell which has proved historically beneficial – and the lovely longshot could be AMEENA who is 1UP and has a wonderful record over the distance. At $21 – worth a speck.