Saturday Bets! 2026 Newmarket Handicap

This Saturday, the world-renowned Flemington 'Straight Six' takes centre stage as a field of elite sprinters thunder down the turf for the $2 million Group 1 Newmarket Handicap.

Inaugurated in 1874, the Newmarket Handicap is a widely celebrated Australian sprint race and is the culmination of Melbourne’s Autumn sprint series after the Lightning and Oakleigh Plate. It provides a gateway for other G1s in the coming weeks, with a potential tilt at the William Reid, The Galaxy or Sydney’s GF – the TJ Smith. Previous winners include the immortal BLACK CAVAIR (who set the race record in 2011), BERNBOROUGH (1946), REDKIRK WARRIOR (2017–18), and JOLIESTAR (2025).

NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP

"Tricky map to dissect. CABALLUS usually presses on and if they're find dinkum he'll come out in front of BARAQIEL. The main point I'll make here is I doubt Mark Zahra will go back to last on TENTYRIS. Can see him slotting in with 3 or 4 behind him."

Trainer/Jockey Chat

The turf is currently witnessing the sheer dominance of Winona Costin. Striking at a blistering 40% over in her last 100 rides, Costin isn't just riding a wave, she’s outperforming her career average by a staggering 39%. This level of "white-hot" form makes her mount, DISNECK, an immediate focal point for the race.

The data becomes even more compelling when you pivot to Trainer John McArdle, whose training efficiency is currently defying market logic. By exceeding market expectations by 51% with his recent 100 runners and maintaining a strike rate 45% above his career, McArdle has proven he’s finding an extra gear in his stable. And one of them is MY GLADILOA, the one to watch in the Newmarket on Saturday.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:

• Drought broken - JOLIESTAR broke a long-standing dry spell last year, becoming the first Favourite to win the race since HAY LIST back in 2012.

• Favourites often falter – be careful about banking on them. Only 9 Favourites have managed to secure a win over the last 31 years. Our mate the punter Average Joe would down $127 overall from a $100 stake each year since 1995 ($3100 total investment) if he backed the Favourite each year.

  
  

• Hunt for value – long shots frequently dominate, with 7 out of the last 13 winners holding SPs of $11 or more.

  
  

• Down the middle – historical data shows a high concentration of winners jumping from Barriers 3 through 9. This is enhanced further with 6 of the last 7 winners jumping from Barriers 3 to 8.

  
  

• The Curse of 1 – not a single horse has won from Barrier 1 in 31 years.

  
  

• Front-runners usually prevail – being near the lead is critical. 12 of the last 16 winners were positioned within the Top 3 at the 400m mark.

  
  

• The lighter the better – since 2015, light-weight contenders have thrived, with 7 winners carrying 52.5kg or less.

  
  

• The heavy burden – it’s a tough climb for the top weights – out of the last 65 starters carrying 57kg or more, only 7 have crossed the finish line first.

  
  

• The Lightning or the Plate – generally, most winners use either the Lightning (7 winners) or the Oakleigh (4 winners) as a lead-up since 2010.

  
  

• The Lightning - the winners of the Lightning have the best strike rate, with 50 winners of the Lightning winning the Newmarket 14 (28%) times. 106 Oakleigh winners have contested the Newmarket for only 10 (9%) wins.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:

• A contender with some value

• Jumping from a middle gate

• On pace settling position

• Lightning or Oakleigh form

Andy's Tip: 13. MY GLADIOLA $6

TENTYRIS is arguably the best sprinter in the land - but the historical data is telling me to shy away - not only due to the poor record of Favs, but only 2 horses have won from double-digit barriers in the past 11 years. Plus the dreaded heavy burden of 57kg - there's a chance here for the upset - and a chance to turn the tables for MY GLADIOLA. Jumping from Barrier 7 right in the middle and looking to be in and around that on pace speed, this could be her chance to get a big scalp. In The Lightning, MY GLADILOA carried 1.5kg less than TENTYRIS and lost by 0.8L - now she meets her rival 6.5kg better off. At $6, she's worth a speck.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 2. TENTYRIS $2.10

"The weight won't stop him. Bad luck could. But you have to back Zahra and the wide draw. ANGEL CAPITAL was horrible last start but we know he is far better than that. At $12 he has to be a saver bet."

More Tips inc METRO TRACK REPORTS

Also taking place this Saturday at Royal Randwick are two more G1s – the Randwick Guineas and the Al-Star Mile. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:

RANDWICK GUINEAS

1600m – Group 1 – 3YO: Set Weights

• Only 8 Favourites have won in the past 30 years – the last being THE AUTUMN SUN (2019)

• 9 of the last 13 winners had SPs of $6 or more.

• 6 of the last 8 winners jumped from Barriers 3, 4, or 5.

• 15 of the last 16 winners used the Hobartville Stakes as a lead-up.

• 9 of those winners placed in the Hobartville Stakes.

• Only 3 Fillies have won in the past 30 years – the last being MOSHEEN in 2012.

ALL-STAR MILE

1600m – Group 1 – Weight For Age

• Favourites have won the All-Star Mile twice in the last 7 years.

• 6 out of the last 9 winners had a SP of $8 or less.

• Remarkably, the last 4 winners all placed second in their previous race.

• Geldings have won 5 out of the last 7 races.

• 2 out of the last 3 winners previously competed in the Futurity Stakes.

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