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Saturday Bets! 2025 Australian Cup
- Andy G
- Mar 26
- 5 min read
Updated: Mar 28
With a small field of 10 contenders in this year’s Australian Cup, will the Favourite’s curse be broken or will punters find value in her rivals?
AUSTRALIAN CUP
2000m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The last G1 of the Victorian Autumn takes place at Flemington this Saturday with the running of the Australian Cup over 2000m.
First run way back in 1863, the Australian Cup was originally raced under handicap conditions before switching to a WFA contest in 1979. The $2.5 million prizemoney has enticed many previous Melbourne Cup horses to return in the Autumn to try and get a piece of the cash.
As a result, the list of winners is littered with Australian racing legends including – MAKYBE DIVA (2005), OCTAGONAL (1997), NORTHERLY (2001/03), LONHRO (2004), SAINTLY (1996) and LET’S ELOPE (1992).
Leading Trainer is Bart Cummings who has secured more than double the amount of Australian Cup victories than his closest rival with 13 wins. Tom Hales has the most wins as a Jockey with 8 victories all won back in the 1800s.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Look below the first line of betting…’
Favourites have not enjoyed success in the Australian Cup. Over the past 15 years, Favourites have won only 3 times while in the last 30 years, they have claimed just 6 victories in total. Notably between 2005 and 2013, no Favourite managed to secure a win highlighting the lack of triumph endured by the Favourites.
In terms of SPs, the winners have come around the second to fourth line of betting. 11 winners in the past 15 years have had a SP of $8.50 or less revealing popular horses in the market have come out on top. However, there has been a shift in the past 7 years with 3 champions winning with blowout SPs of $26 or higher indicating that longshots are worth a look.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Wide off centre…’
Since 1995, the middle gates have generally enjoyed the most success with 50% of winners jumping from Barriers 5 to 8. While history has been kind to most horses positioned in these gates, there has been a noticeable shift towards wider barriers in recent years.
Most notably, Barriers 8 to 14 have become extremely successful. This sweet spot has produced 10 winners in the past 15 years, 7 winners in the past 10 years and emphatically – the last 5 winners since 2020.
While only 3 horses will jump from Barriers 8 – 10 in this year’s field, it is worth noting that inside gates have been extremely unsuccessful with only a 16% strike rate in the past 30 years with no horse winning from Barriers 1 or 3 in this timeframe. Whether this trend continues despite the small field remains to be seen.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Running on…’
Over the past decade, 7 winners have settled in midfield or off pace before charging home down the Flemington straight. This has been aided with 9 of the last 10 Australian Cups run on a Good track. This supports the success of winners jumping from the wider gates and not getting stuck on the rail and unable to challenge.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The $6/week offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot!
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Generally been Orr into Peter Young…’
The last 10 winners of the Australian Cup have used a variety of races in their prep with the Peter Young Stakes being the most popular lead-up with 5 winners in the past decade utilising it as their final race before the Cup. Historically, the Orr Stakes has also been a popular race used in winner’s preps and over the last decade, most winners have ran in both the Peter Young and the Orr – if not, at least one of them.
Interestingly however, CASCADIAN raced in the All-Star Mile prior to the Australian Cup – and on both occasions won the Cup in 2023 and 2024.
Older horses have had greater success in the Australian Cup with 7 winners since 2015 being 5YO or older. The most recent 3YO winner was SUPER COOL in 2013 – the 3YO winner prior to him was SAINTLY in 1996. There have only been 5 Mares win in the last 35 years.
Did you know?
“Cummings legacy continues…”
So we know Bart Cummings has 13 Australian Cups to his name – but the Cummings name continues to win Australian Cups with grandsons Edward and James adding to the collection in the last 3 years – Edward training DUAIS in 2022 and James training CASCADIAN in 2023/24.
Andy’s Rundown for the Australian Cup:
With the poor strike rate of Favourites, Mares and Barrier 1 not winning in the past 30 years, I’m happy to back against PRIDE OF JENNI even though she is the best horse in the race.
So I’m looking for a horse that jumps from a wider barrier and will settle in midfield before coming home strong on a predicted Good track on Saturday – this steers me towards MIDDLE EARTH. Jumping from Barrier 8, the 5YO should be able to settle right in midfield and will try and run down JENNI down the straight. ZARDOZI will look to turn the tables on JENNI after giving her too much of a start in the Peter Young – again, another horse who can settle in midfield from Barrier 9 and will keep JENNI in her sights. ATISHU loves Flemington and will flash home late – whether she will be in time or not remains to be seen.
Nic Ashman Tip:
Grab his full analysis of the 2025 Australian Cup by clicking the link below.
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