Saturday Bets! 2025 Caulfield Guineas

Nic Ashman
21 hours ago
2 min read

The Caulfield Guineas is more than just a mile classic — it’s a stallion-maker steeped in history, with trends that punters ignore at their peril.

Since 1881, the race has produced legends, upsets and future champions. Red Anchor won the 1984 edition before claiming the Cox Plate and Victoria Derby. It's been almost 50 years since a filly won [SURROUND, 1976] and the trends don't stop there.

2025 CAULFIELD GUINEAS market supplied by Pointsbet

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

MARKET

9 favourites have won since 2000, but if you had $100 on each you’d be down $85 overall.
7 winners since 2000 have started double figure odds

BARRIERS

Barrier 1 has been an advantage — 4 winners since 2010 → AUTUMN BOY draws 1.
Wider draws are not a negative — 9 winners since 2000 → VINROCK (14), NEPOTISM (12), WODETON (10), WEST OF SWINDON (16).

LEAD-UP FORM

Golden Rose (4 winners since 2000) → WODETON (2nd), AUTUMN BOY (7th), RIVELLINO (6th), NEPOTISM (8th)
Guineas Prelude (8 winners) → VEGA FOR LUCK (2nd), PLANET RED (3rd), SPACE RIDER (4th), STAY COSMIC (5th)
Stutt Stakes (4 winners) → WEST OF SWINDON (1st), ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER (2nd), HILLIER (3rd), HIGHVOL (4th), VINROCK (5th), PRESTIGE OLE (9th)

LAST START PLACING

10 of the last 25 Guineas winners won their previous start.
6 winners came off a placing, including ANAMOE (2nd Golden Rose) and DIVINE PROPHET (2nd Stan Fox).
Only 2 winners have finished outside the top 4 in their lead-up run since the year 2000.

TRAINERS

Chris Waller has 3 Guineas wins this century: PRESS STATEMENT (2015), THE AUTUMN SUN (2018), PRIVATE LIFE (2024) → WODETON, AUTUMN BOY are in the right hands.
Team Hawkes have also nailed it with ALL TOO HARD (2012), DIVINE PROPHET (2016), OLE KIRK (2020).→ NEPOTISM follows their blueprint.

WHO TICKS THE BOXES?

WODETON (Chris Waller / J. McDonald) ticks 4 of 5 boxes with a last start 2nd placing, in the Golden Rose, right stable, barrier ok according to history. The main danger is history’s warning: favourites haven’t been profitable.
AUTUMN BOY, WEST OF SWINDON, VEGA FOR LUCK → 3/5 boxes each

Meanwhile, our TBF database and resident form guru Nic Ashman have provided their tips.