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Saturday Bets! 2025 Champagne Stakes
- Andy G
- Apr 18
- 5 min read
Updated: Apr 30
With the last 14 Champagne Stakes winners all jumping at single-digit odds, is there any hope for the roughies? Or will the market dominate – again?
CHAMPAGNE STAKES
1600m – Group 1 – 2YO Set Weights
Race 7 of the final day of the Sydney Autumn Carnival is the G1 Champagne Stakes for the 2YOs raced over 1600m under Set Weight conditions – 56.5kg for the Colts/Geldings and 54.5kg for the Fillies.
Since its inception in 1861, the Champagne has changed distance 8 times – 1000m (1861), 1600m (1862-1864), 1400m (1865-1866), 1000m (1867-1880), 1200m (1881), 1000m (1882), 1200m (1883-1971), 1600m (1972-2024). Winners in the last 164 years include – TODMAN (1957), LUSKIN STAR (1977), INTERGAZE (1996), PIERRO (2012) and BROADSIDING (2024).
Leading Trainer of the Champagne is Tom Payten with 7 wins. Gai Waterhouse has the opportunity to equal her father Tommy Smith with 6 wins this weekend with a win with BELLAZAINE. Leading Jockey is Shane Dye with 6 wins. James McDonald has won twice in the last 4 years.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘If it’s not them – it’s the ones around them…’
Favourites have historically performed well in the Champagne with a notably strong track record over the years. Since 1995, 14 Favourites have gone on to win the race including 7 since 2011 and 4 in the past decade alone – the most recent being MILITARIZE in 2023.
A clear and consistent trend also emerges when examining the SPs of winners. Over the last 14 editions of the race, every winner has jumped at odds of $9 or less highlighting the dominance of well-fancied runners in this event. In fact, 8 of those 14 winners had SPs of $4 or less further underscoring the strength of horses with strong market support.
In contrast, longshots have rarely prevailed with only 4 horses at double-digit odds managing to win in the past 30 years. The last time this occurred was in 2010 when SKILLED claimed victory emphasising just how rare an upset has become in the Champagne.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Exhibiting the middle…’
Barrier draws have played a significant role in shaping outcomes in the Champagne with a clear and consistent advantage seen from middle gates. Specifically, Barriers 5 to 8 have produced 18 winners over the past 30 years establishing a strong historical pattern. This dominance hasn’t faded with time – over the last 15 years alone, 9 winners have emerged from this middle section of the barriers.
The trend has been particularly striking in recent editions with each of the last 3 winners jumping from either Barrier 6 or 7. These two gates in particular have proven to be the sweet spot combining for 13 wins since 1995. Such a concentration of success from these middle barriers highlights the tactical advantage often afforded by these gates.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Midfield seems best…’
6 of the last 10 winners have settled in a midfield position at the 800m suggesting that winners have enjoyed a position behind on-pace horses before stalking them down the straight.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Sires…’
A key form guide for the Champagne is undeniably the ATC Sires Produce Stakes. In the past 30 years, 25 Champagne winners have come through the Sires highlighting its importance for producing winners. This trend has only strengthened in more recent times with 13 of the last 15 winners and 8 of the last 10 using the Sires as their final lead-up run.
Notably, the form out of the Sires has been exceptionally strong as each of the last 5 Champagne winners who came through that race also finished in the trifecta in the Sires. This underscores that horses who perform well in the Sires often carry that form into the Champagne with great success.
The only other lead-up used in the last decade by Champagne winners is the Fernhill Mile which the 2024 winner BROADSIDING raced in prior to the Champagne. The other winner was PRIZED ICON in 2016. Both won the Fernhill.
2 Fillies have won the Champagne in the last 9 years – the last was SHE’S EXTREME in 2022.
What should I look for?
“1, 2 and 3…”
Saddlecloths 1 to 3 have enjoyed great success in the past 30 years winning 19 times. Saddlecloth 4 is the only number in the top 10 that has not won in the same period.
To hear Nic's tip for the Champagne Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
A Champagne Stakes story?
“Finally for Chris Waller…”
Before 2023, Chris Waller had remarkably never trained a Sydney G1 2YO winner. Then in 2023, he wins the Triple Crown with SHINZO in the Slipper and MILITARIZE in the Sires and Champagne. Worth the wait.
Andy’s Rundown for the Champagne Stakes:
With the Sires such an important form line historically for the Champagne, one must take this into heavy consideration – particularly the recent hot form of Sires horses becoming Champagne winners.
So we land here on BUFFALO – a Gelding with Saddlecloth 3, a single-digit SP jumping from the sweet spot middle gate of 5 and a third-place finish in the Sires – seems to fit the criteria. The challenge comes from STATE VISIT who was second in the Sires and with J-Mac looking for a third Champagne in 5 years – he will be there or thereabouts come Saturday – just needs some luck from Barrier 12 and become the second winner in 14 years from a double-digit barrier. SPICY LU is going for 4 straight and has claims after winning the Fernhill and jumps from a middle barrier; NEPOTISM and WITHIN THE LAW are quality and can’t be disregarded considering the domination of short-priced horses since 2011.
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