.png)
Saturday Bets! 2025 All Aged Stakes
- Andy G
- 19 hours ago
- 5 min read
In the last 9 editions of the All Aged Stakes, 7 winners have been produced from the TJ Smith Stakes and only two Favourites have won in that time. Will 2025 replicate the same script?
ALL AGED STAKES
1400m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The feature G1 on the last day of the Sydney Autumn Carnival is the All Aged Stakes run over 1400m for Open Class horses under set WFA conditions.
The race commenced in 1865 and for the next 138 years – would be raced over 1600m. However, in 2004, the decision was made to take it back to 1400m. During its 160 years, the All Aged has had one triple winner in AJAX (1938/39/40) and 10 double winners including SUNLINE (2000/02), ROUGH HABIT (1992/93), DALRELLO (1976/77) and CARBINE (1889/90).
Gai Waterhouse is the Leading Trainer of the All Aged with 5 wins – her first in 1997 with ALL OUR MOB and her fifth in 2016 with ENGLISH. Jim Pike is the Leading Jockey with 7 wins. The last 15 All Aged races have been won by 15 different jockeys.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Not very well in the last decade…’
Over the past 30 years, Favourites have claimed victory 12 times (40%) including a particularly dominant period between 2006 and 2013 during which they won 6 out of 8 race editions. However, this dominance has notably declined in more recent years with only two Favourites managing to win since 2014—TRAPEZE ARTIST in 2018 and GIGA KICK in 2023. This drop in success for Favourites has opened the door for greater value among the winners offering punters more rewarding odds.
In fact, over the past 5 years, 4 out of the 5 winners had SPs ranging from $6.50 to $12 highlighting a trend towards contenders with value. Expanding the window further, 6 of the past 11 winners since 2014 have saluted at odds of $9 or more reinforcing the notion that backing outside the Favourites has proven to be a fruitful strategy in recent years.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Stay away from the inside…’
Winners of the All Aged have historically fared better when jumping from wider gates particularly those positioned between Barriers 5 and 10. In fact, 18 (60%) of the past 30 winners have come from this barrier range – a trend that has not only persisted but strengthened in recent years. Of the last 15 winners, 12 (80%) jumped from Barriers 5 to 10. In the last decade, 8 (80%) have also jumped from these gates including the last two champions.
Despite most All Aged fields in recent years featuring no more than 14 runners, the inside barriers have surprisingly struggled with Barriers 1 to 3 producing just two winners in the past 12 years—an unusually low return for typically advantageous positions. For those seeking a ‘lucky’ gate – Barrier 7 stands out as a statistical anomaly having delivered an impressive 8 winners over the last 20 years making it a gate well worth noting for punters.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Wet – back; Dry – forward…’
A mixed bag of settling positions in the All Aged over the past decade, however, on closer inspection – 5 of the 6 winners on a rain-affected track have settled in an off-midfield position while the 4 winners on a Good track all settled in an on-pace/midfield position.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The $6/week offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot!
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Hello TJ Smith…’
With the reduction in distance in 2004, the TJ Smith has produced many contenders for the All Aged who have backed up after two weeks and generated favourable results. Since 2005, 11 All Aged winners raced in the TJ earlier in the Autumn and most recently, 7 of the last 9 winners of the All Aged came out of the TJ. Of those 7 winners, only one won the TJ – TRAPEZE ARTIST (2018).
The other races used by winners prior to the All Aged in the same period 9 year period were the George Ryder and the Doncaster Mile.
6 of the last 8 winners have been 4UP which is understandable considering the timing of this race in the Autumn Carnival, however, the last two winners were 3UP.
4YOs have produced the most winners in the past decade with 5 wins. There have been 3 Mares/Fillies wins in the same period.
An All Aged Stakes story?
“From strapper to trainer…”
Grahame Begg strapped EMANCIPATION who went on to win the All Aged Stakes in 1984. 40 years later – he trained his own winner when MAGIC TIME won in 2024.
To hear Nic's tip for the All Aged Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Andy’s Rundown for the All Aged Stakes:
With 5 of the top 6 contenders in the market for the All Aged coming out of the TJ a fortnight ago, we can see why the TJ has produced so many winners in the past decade. With BRIASA Favourite, jumping from an inside gate and looking to be the first horse to complete the TJ/All Aged double since TRAPEZE ARTIST in 2018, history is against him.
So I’m looking for a contender from the TJ, with some value in terms of odds and jumping from Barriers 5 to 10 - so I lean back to last year’s winner MAGIC TIME. It ticks all the above boxes (including lucky Barrier 7), but also she has placed 7 out of her last 8 trips over the distance and will get a get a preferred dry track and should settle in a favourable on-pace position. 4UP and at $11 – she seems overs and has every chance to be the first two-time winner since SUNLINE in 2002.
There are others that do fit the historical criteria – JIMMYSTAR and JOLIESTAR both jump from Barriers 6 and 9 and were both fancied contenders in the TJ – both are looking to atone for below-par performances and provide good value at $5.50 and $6.50 respectively. The outlier is BROADSIDING – coming back 600m from the Rosehill Guineas which is extremely intriguing. Has a wonderful record over the distance and is one of the best 3YOs in the country – but jumps from a dreaded inside gate. I can’t remember the last time he was $7 – so up to the punters to decide if that’s yay – or nay.
Comments