Saturday Bets! 2025 Cox Plate
- Nic Ashman
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 17 hours ago
Steeped in history, and regarded as Australasia's weight-for-age championship, the 2025 Cox Plate will be the last time its run at Moonee Valley as we know it.
A massive development will take place after Saturday's meeting where Moonee Valley will be transformed into a different looking track.
The WS Cox Plate has an honor roll boasting the best we've seen in Australia - PHAR LAP, AJAX, TULLOCH, GUNSYND, DULCIFY, KINGSTON TOWN, SUPER IMPOSE, OCTAGONAL, SAINTLY, MIGHHT AND POWER, SUNLINE, NORTHERLY, MAKYBE DIVA, SO YOU THINK and WINX. It is truly the race of champions.
There is no other race on the Australian calendar with a list of winners like this one.
SPEED MAP
"No natural speed engaged here if GLOBE doesn't run (under vets examination). If he does, then he leads at his own leisure. AELIANA must go forward from her outside gate to be any chance. NEPOTISM with no weight can be handy, maybe BUCKAROO too"
Here are the historical stats and trends since 2000 to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
MARKET
Class generally prevails in Australia’s Weight-For-Age Championship.
14 of the last 25 winners have started favourite or equal favourite — Sunline (2000), Makybe Diva (2005), So You Think (2009 & 2010), Winx (2015–18), Anamoe (2022), Romantic Warrior (2023) among them.
A $100 win bet on every favourite since 2000 would see you up around +$540 overall.
Favourites (≤$4) — 14 winners
Single-digit odds ($4.50–$9.50) — 4 winners (Ocean Park 2012, Winx 2015, Anamoe 2022, Via Sistina 2024)
Double-figure odds ($10+) — 7 winners (Fields of Omagh 2003, Savabeel 2004, Fields of Omagh 2006, Maldivian 2008, Pinker Pinker 2011, Shamus Award 2013, Adelaide 2014)
LEAD-UP RACE
More than 50% of winners since 2000 have come out of the Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes.
Here are the lead-up runs since 2000;
Turnbull Stakes (7) — Sunline 2000, Makybe Diva 2005, El Segundo 2007, Winx 2017, Winx 2018, Romantic Warrior 2023, Via Sistina 2024
Caulfield Stakes (6) — Northerly 2001, Fields of Omagh 2006, So You Think 2010, Ocean Park 2012, Winx 2016, Anamoe 2022
First-up Overseas (4) — Adelaide 2014, Lys Gracieux 2019, Sir Dragonet 2020, State of Rest 2021
Caulfield Cup (2) — Northerly 2002, Maldivian 2008
Caulfield Guineas (2) — So You Think 2009, Shamus Award 2013
Epsom Handicap (2) — Pinker Pinker 2011, Winx 2015
Toorak Handicap (1) — Fields of Omagh 2003
Spring Champion Stakes (1) — Savabeel 2004
LAST-START PLACING
20 of the last 25 Cox Plate winners finished Top 3 in their previous run, and 14 won their lead-up race. Only 5 winners came off an unplaced effort — Fields of Omagh (2006), Maldivian (2008), Romantic Warrior (4th Turnbull 2023).
AGE & SEX PROFILE
4YOs — 8 winners (So You Think, Ocean Park, Adelaide, Anamoe, etc.)
5YOs — 6 winners (Northerly, Sir Dragonet, Via Sistina, etc.)
6YOs — 5 winners (Fields of Omagh, El Segundo, Maldivian, Lys Gracieux, Romantic Warrior)
3YOs — 2 winners (Savabeel 2004, Shamus Award 2013)
7YO+ — 4 winners (Makybe Diva 7, Winx 7, Via Sistina 7, Fields of Omagh 9 in 2006)
BARRIERS
There has been a complete domination of Cox Plate winners jumping from barriers 3 to 7 in the past 30 years — 22 of 30 winners (73%) have come from these gates.
That trend has only strengthened recently, with 8 of the last 9 winners coming from barriers 3 to 7.
From 2000–2024:
Barriers 1–4 — 8 winners (Northerly 2001–02, Anamoe 2022, Romantic Warrior 2023, etc.)
Barriers 5–8 — 10 winners
Barriers 9+ — 7 winners (Sunline 2000, Winx 2015, Lys Gracieux 2019, etc.)
2025 Barrier Analysis: Ideal Draws: Nepotism (3), Buckaroo (4), Via Sistina (5), Antino (6), Globe (7)
Last weekend's Works Burger Bet Sheets returned a net profit of $8,000 if you bet $50 per unit. Click the line below for your 7 day free trial
TRAINERS
Chris Waller — 5 wins (Winx 4, Via Sistina 2024)
Bart & James Cummings — 3 wins (So You Think 2009/2010, Anamoe 2022)
Fred Kersley — 2 wins (Northerly 2001–02)
David Hayes / Lindsay Park — 2 wins (Fields of Omagh 2006, Maldivian 2008)
International trainers — 4 wins (Adelaide 2014, Lys Gracieux 2019, Sir Dragonet 2020, State of Rest 2021)
JOCKEYS
Hugh Bowman — 4 wins (Winx 2015–18)
Glen Boss — 4 wins (Makybe Diva 2005, So You Think 2009, Ocean Park 2012, Sir Dragonet 2020)
Damien Oliver — 2 wins (Northerly 2001, Fields of Omagh 2006)
James McDonald — 3 wins (Anamoe 2022, Romantic Warrior 2023, Via Sistina 2024)
REPEAT WINNERS
Northerly — 2001, 2002 (back-to-back)
Fields of Omagh — 2003, 2006 (non-consecutive)
So You Think — 2009, 2010 (back-to-back)
Winx — 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 (four straight)
10 of the 25 runnings (40%) were won by repeat champions, leaving 19 unique winners across the past 25 years.
SATURDAY BETS! 2025 COX PLATE
WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR?
A 4–6YO
Single-figure odds
Top-3 finish in a major lead-up (Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes)
From the Waller or Cummings camp
Ridden by a top Group 1 jockey (McDonald/Bowman/Boss profile)
Winning form this prep
Ideally drawn barrier 3–7
WHO TICKS THE BOXES?
VIA SISTINA ($2.50)
8YO mare – slightly older, but mares have won 8 of the last 25 (Winx, Makybe Diva, Pinker Pinker).
Favourite — 14 of the last 25 winners have started favourite.
Turnbull winner — the most successful modern lead-up (7 winners).
Barrier 5 — inside the golden zone (barriers 3–7 have produced 73% of winners).
Trainer: Chris Waller — 5 Cox Plate wins since 2015.
Jockey: James McDonald — has ridden the last three winners.
Top-3 finish last start — 72% of winners meet this stat.
Would become the 5th repeat winner of the race
TBF DATA SELECTION
No.9 NEPOTISM
NIC ASHMAN'S TIP
No.2 ANTINO
"Impossible to fault his prep with excuses for beaten runs. He's got great bend speed suggesting Moonee Valley may suit him well."
Good luck and Happy Punting!
NIC ASHMAN'S FEATURE RACE TIPS and TRACKWALKER INFO via the Podcast below
(Link will be updated on Wednesday). The link below reviews last Saturday, finding future winners.
If you want the latest Track Reports, Bet Sheets with staking plan check out our product suite and see what our members get. Below are last weekend's Bet Sheets returning around $8,000 in profit for $50 per unit bet.
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