COX PLATE | The G1 Blueprint
Updated: 4 days ago
Cox Plate history reveals a clear profile: eight of the last 10 winners settled third to seventh, while fourth or fifth-up runners account for almost three-quarters of winners once international runners resuming from a break are excluded. Our database highlights the key trends across age, preparation, lead-up form and race position.
COX PLATE
Distance: 2040m
Class: Group 1
Age: 3YO+
Conditions: WFA
This year’s move to Flemington means some historical trends — particularly barriers and settling positions—may carry less weight.
DO FAVOURITES DELIVER?
Favourites or equal favourites won 12 of the 35 editions from 1991–2025, a 34% strike rate. Their recent record is considerably stronger: eight of the 11 editions from 2015–2025 went to the favourite. At $100 per race, those winning prices returned $1,957 from $1,100 outlaid - a profit of $857 and 78% return on turnover.
It hasn’t always been that comfortable. No favourite won between 2011 and 2014, a four-race losing stretch that included PINKER PINKER’s $26 upset. She remains the longest-priced winner since 2000, while DANE RIPPER’s $41 victory in 1997 tops the full database.
DO YOU NEED AN INSIDE DRAW?
Split each field into three - regardless of size - and inside gates supplied 25% of winners since 2010, middle gates 44% and outside gates 31%. Fields averaged 11.4 runners over that period.
An outside draw hasn’t stopped champions: LYS GRACIEUX won from gate 11, while ADELAIDE overcame gate 13. With the race moving to Flemington, treat those Valley patterns as background rather than a firm barrier rule.
WHERE DO WINNERS SETTLE?
Historically, on-pace runners hold a slight edge with 38% of winners, against 31% apiece for midfield and backmarkers. Among the last 12 winners, that on-pace share drops to 17%, while midfield jumps to 50%.
Eight of the last 10 settled between third and seventh, including WINX and VIA SISTINA. But there’s more than one winning script: SUNLINE and SO YOU THINK won from the front, while LYS GRACIEUX unleashed from near the rear.
TYPICAL RACE SHAPE?
The average Finishing Speed Percentage (FS%) is 101.8%, which puts this race towards the more testing end of G1s in Australia. In addition, around one in three Cox Plates sees the winner record an FS% below 100% - a hallmark of a fast or even brutal tempo.
FS% compares the winner’s average 200m split for the end of their race against their average 200m split for the whole race. Above 100% means they finished faster; below 100% means they finished slower. FS% varies depending on track and distance but usually sits between 101%-103%. Some G1 races tend to be sit/sprint while others are a war of attrition - unlocking the typical race shape can help find the winner.
WHAT’S THE SWEET SPOT IN THEIR PREP?
Fourth or fifth-up supplied 23 of the 35 winners. Excluding three international winners resuming from a break, that rises to almost three-quarters, with fourth-up narrowly leading fifth-up.
Those international exceptions deserve their own lane. STATE OF REST returned from 77 days between runs, SIR DRAGONET from 90 and LYS GRACIEUX from 125. Their preparation patterns shouldn’t be judged against a conventional local spring campaign.
WHAT LEAD-UP FORM MATTERS?
Winning your lead-up helps, but it isn’t essential. Excluding international runners resuming from a break, around 75% of recent winners placed in their lead-up. ROMANTIC WARRIOR is the reminder to forgive the right defeat: fourth in the Turnbull, then a Cox Plate winner.
The Caulfield Stakes presents a sharper pattern. The last four Cox Plate winners to come through that race all won it: ANAMOE, WINX, OCEAN PARK and dual champion SO YOU THINK.
For three-year-olds coming through the Caulfield Guineas, defeat has been the common thread. OCTAGONAL and SHAMUS AWARD both finished third, while SO YOU THINK ran fifth. None needed to win the Guineas to conquer older opposition next start.
CAN CHAMPIONS COME BACK FOR MORE?
WINX made the race her own with four consecutive victories. VIA SISTINA, SO YOU THINK, NORTHERLY and SUNLINE each won back-to-back, while FIELDS OF OMAGH claimed his two titles three years apart. Proven Cox Plate performers have repeatedly returned to claim the crown.
WHAT’S THE WINNING PROFILE?
Fourth or fifth-up, coming off a top-three finish and settling midfield. The Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes are the key launchpads - winning the latter has been especially significant. Keep international preparations separate, and give barrier history less weight with the move to Flemington.
NIC'S 2026 COX PLATE PREVIEW
The historical Blueprint sets the scene. Now let's see which runners fit the trends, ratings and map well for Saturday's Cox Plate.
R7. GROUP 1 COX PLATE — 2040M
1 2322 CEOLWULF Chad Schofield (3) $5
2 X482 LIGHT INFANTRY MAN Harry Coffey (11) $23
3 1X44 SIR DELIUS Craig Williams (5) $4.50
4 9031 ATTRITION Jamie Mott (4) $61
5 3214 COSMIC CRUSADER William Pike (8) $9
6 X613 BIRDMAN Ben Melham (1) $13
7 X001 LAND LEGEND Ethan Brown (12) $34
8 8789 MIDDLE EARTH Mark Zahra (7) $101
9 1202 SAINT GEORGE Blake Shinn (6) $26
10 X023 AELIANA James McDonald (10) $4.60
11 5111 WARWOVEN Rachel King (2) $5
12 X112 BLIND RAISE Jamie Melham (9) $14
NIC ASHMAN'S ANALYSIS
SIR DELIUS owns the field’s best peak performance at 2000m, LAND LEGEND brings the strongest last-start rating and AELIANA has the best wet-track figure if the heavens open (rain on raceday forecast). WARWOVEN could reach a career peak under 49.5kg, while BLIND RAISE represents the beaten Guineas brigade.
Flemington changes the equation. The Valley’s barrier and settling patterns carry less weight, but combining ratings, preparation, lead-up form and this year’s map gives us plenty to work with.
WHO GETS THE RIGHT RUN?
LAND LEGEND, LIGHT INFANTRY MAN and BLIND RAISE all led at their latest starts. Drawn 12, 11 and nine respectively, they could generate genuine pressure getting across. WARWOVEN can use gate two to hold a position without doing the same work.
With 12 runners, the settling thirds are first to fourth, fifth to eighth and ninth to twelfth. My provisional map is:
On pace: LAND LEGEND, LIGHT INFANTRY MAN, BLIND RAISE, WARWOVEN.
Midfield: SIR DELIUS, ATTRITION, BIRDMAN, COSMIC CRUSADER.
Backmarkers: AELIANA, CEOLWULF, SAINT GEORGE, MIDDLE EARTH.
Historically, on-pace runners supplied 38% of winners, against 31% apiece for midfield and backmarkers. But on-pacers have dropped to 17% over the last 12 editions, with midfield spiking to 50%. Genuine pressure would again suit horses conserving energy behind the speed.
AELIANA is the map query. She parked third and fourth at her past two starts, but gate 10 makes securing that position harder. James McDonald could find midfield cover, although dropping back looks the cheaper option.
SIR DELIUS HAS THE PEAK
SIR DELIUS produced the field’s best peak rating at 2000m when winning the Queen Elizabeth third-up in autumn. He reaches the same stage here.
Fourth or fifth-up supplied 23 of the 35 historical winners — almost three-quarters after excluding international runners resuming from breaks. SIR DELIUS sits outside that dominant window, but his own peak came at precisely this stage.
Gate five also gives Craig Williams more options than the nine he drew when fourth in the Turnbull. He raced second there; taking a trail behind this potential pressure looks more attractive. ROMANTIC WARRIOR also finished fourth in the Turnbull before winning the Cox Plate in 2023. SIR DELIUS needs to improve, but his peak says he can.
LAND LEGEND BRINGS THE CURRENT FIGURE
LAND LEGEND’s Caulfield Stakes victory produced the best last-start rating in this field. His turnaround was backed by the clock, and his latest racing pattern deserves more weight than his earlier failures.
The last four Cox Plate winners coming through that lead-up all won it — ANAMOE, WINX, OCEAN PARK and SO YOU THINK. LAND LEGEND fits that pattern after beating SHEZA ALIBI and BIRDMAN, and he arrives fourth-up.
AELIANA WANTS THE HEAVENS TO OPEN
AELIANA combines fourth-up preparation with consecutive placings, including third in the Turnbull. That race supplied five of the last nine Cox Plate winners, giving her another historical connection.
She owns the field’s best wet-track rating, and with up to 7mm on raceday forecast, rain would strengthen her case considerably. The question is how much ground she concedes from gate 10.
CAN THE GUINEAS BRIGADE STRIKE?
The last three Cox Plate winners coming through the Caulfield Guineas were beaten there. SO YOU THINK finished fifth, while SHAMUS AWARD and OCTAGONAL ran third. That gives BLIND RAISE, runner-up to WARWOVEN, a historical connection.
WARWOVEN needs to write a different script, but three consecutive wins, gate two and 49.5kg make him difficult to dismiss. He settled fifth in the Guineas and has the tactical speed to race closer here. If he runs the distance, the light weight could help him reach a career peak.
DON’T DISMISS THE CUP BACKUP
The Caulfield Cup was a poor-rating edition, so its finishing order alone shouldn’t have us charging into COSMIC CRUSADER or SAINT GEORGE. But it was also slowly run, making the seven-day backup and return in distance more manageable than after a searching 2400m contest.
COSMIC CRUSADER has already beaten AELIANA and SIR DELIUS in the Turnbull over Flemington’s 2000m. Gate eight is more accommodating than the 14 he drew when fourth in the Cup, and he projects to secure a midfield trail.
SAINT GEORGE finished second and produced the Cup’s fastest last 200m. His best Flemington 2000m figure isn’t far off SIR DELIUS’s performance in last year’s Turnbull. He rises from 53.5kg to 59kg, but his credentials extend beyond placing in a below-standard Cup.
WHO ELSE FITS?
BIRDMAN arrives fourth-up and projects to settle midfield, with gate one offering an economical passage. ATTRITION is fifth-up, and his revival has coincided with parking third in his Underwood placing and Hill Stakes win. Gate four helps him maintain that successful pattern.
CEOLWULF thrives on a hot tempo and looks likely to get one. Gate three should let him conserve energy before unleashing, but he’s better over the mile. The extra distance remains the concern.
MIDDLE EARTH draws in the historically productive middle third and arrives fifth-up, but needs a substantial form reversal. A favourable historical profile can only take you so far.
NIC'S VERDICT
SIR DELIUS gets the nod through his proven 2000m peak, third-up record and workable draw. AELIANA is the strongest historical fit via the TBF Database, particularly if James McDonald can secure a midfield position. WARWOVEN is the horse the market might come for. He brings upside under the light weight and avoided the bog at Flemington. LAND LEGEND's last-start rating demands respect and his stablemate will relish the hot tempo - LIGHT INFANTRY MAN, who has run career-peak figures at this track/distance multiple times off a fast pace.
NIC'S PICK
3. SIR DELIUS
Cox Plate | 2040m
TBF'S TIP
10. AELIANA
Cox Plate | 2040m
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