Saturday Bets! 2025 Makybe Diva Stakes

G1 action stays south but moves across to Flemington this Saturday with the feature race the 78th edition of the Makybe Diva Stakes raced over 1600m under WFA conditions.

Commencing in 1948, the Makybe Diva was originally raced over 2000m, however, in 1965 it was reduced to a mile which has enabled many horses to use it now as a stepping stone to major events deeper in the Spring. This is exhibited through VIA SISTINA (2024) and INCENTIVISE (2021) who contested the Makybe Diva before going on to win the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup respectively in the same year.

Champion Mare Via Sistina is looking for her 11th Group 1 this Saturday in the Makybe Diva Stakes

Trainer/Jockey Chat

The key Trainer/Jockey combo is the Hayes/Williams partnership which clearly leads the rest of the field in the last 100 runs together surpassing market expectations by 20% as well as raking in an impressive POT of 8%. Although the Waller/Lane combo strike rate has increased to 14% in their last 100 runs together and exceeds their career strike rate by 21%, recent form swings towards Hayes/Williams who seek more success on MR BRIGHTSIDE this weekend.

The Form Trainer is worth a mention as well with Tony Gollan in a big purple patch at the moment. Currently, Gollan is exceeding market expectations by 42% in his last 100 runs which is 42% above the Hayes boys, 45% above James & Wellwood and 46% above the Freedman boys. Gollan is 40% above his career strike and has ANTINO this Saturday.

One final combo worth noting is the Via Sistina/McDonald partnership - on the 9 occasions that Via Sistina has been ridden by McDonald, they accumulated 7 wins and 1 second place together.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• In the past 30 years, Favourites have taken out the Makybe Diva Stakes 8 times (27%). However, 3 of those victories have come in the past 5 years with FIERCE IMPACT (2020), I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (2022) and MR BRIGHTSIDE (2023) being first past the post at the shortest price.

  
  

• A $100 stake on the Favourites since 2008 would see the average punter down $400. Yet the same stake on the Favourite in the past 5 years would see that same punter up $345.

  
  

• With the rise of Favourites in recent years, the SPs of winners have generally been short with the last 5 winners starting at $4 or less. However, the Makybe Diva has also produced many valuable winners. In the decade leading up to 2020, 7 winners had SPs of $9 or more.

  
  

• With only 6 runners in the race, the barrier draw becomes less critical. However, historically, it is worth noting that inside gates have proved most successful with Barriers 1 – 4 winning 15 times since 1995 (50%). This trend has continued in recent years with the last 4 winners jumping from Barriers 1 – 4.

  
  

• A lovely trail for on-pace runners has produced the bulk of the winners in the past decade with 7 winners settling between 3rd and 6th at the 800m mark. 

  
  

• Although named after a champion Mare, the race has not proved successful for the Girls at all – only 2 Mares have won the Makybe Diva since 1995 – the last being SOUTHERN SPEED in 2012.

  
  

• 6 of the last 9 winners raced in the Memsie Stakes the race prior – with the last 3 winners of the Makybe Diva finishing in the quinella of the Memsie last start.

  
  

• Let’s have a look at the lucky Saddlecloths this week – 5 of the last 6 winners have worn either 1 or 6 on their way to victory.

  
  

• MR BRIGHTSIDE is looking to become the first triple winner of the Makybe Diva after winning in 2023 and 2024. If he does win, Craig Williams will have 6 Makybe Diva wins putting him equal with Roy Higgins as the Leading Jockey of the race.

  
  

• Future Consideration: In the last 28 years, only 6 winners of the Makybe Diva have managed to win again in that same prep – MR BRIGHTSIDE (2024), INCENTIVISE (2021), NORTHERLY (2002), SKY HEIGHTS (1999), MARBLE HALLS (1997) and WEEKEND HUSSLER (2008).

To hear Nic's tip for the Makybe Diva Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• A runner jumping between Barriers 1 – 4

• Not a Mare

• Wearing lucky Saddlecloth 1 and 6

Andy’s Tip: 1. MR BRIGHTSIDE $5.50

If we stay away from the Mares due to their poor record in the race, then the next contender in the market is the fan favourite MR BRIGHTSIDE who is coming to the twilight of his illustrious 8-year career. Jumping from Barrier 1 and wearing Number 1, his second-place finish in the Memsie sets him up well for a hat-trick of wins in the Makybe Diva as well as provide a potential sixth win for Williams – this could be the fairytale that cements MR BRIGHTSIDE’s name firmly into Australian racing folklore. 

Nic Ashman's Tip: 6. AELIANA $3.90

"Like her sitting back in a small field with D Lane able to push the button when he pleases. VIA SISTINA maps to settle 3rd the fence and that could be troublesome for the champ. AELIANA went close to beating her first-up and VIA tends to go flat second-up each prep."

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