Saturday Bets! 2025 Memsie Stakes

G1 action heads back down to Melbourne this Saturday with the running of the Memsie Stakes raced over 1400m under WFA conditions worth $750,000 in prizemoney.

Heading into the 127th edition, the Memsie provides another platform for major Spring contenders looking to kick start their campaigns – possibly towards the Cox Plate where legends such as SO YOU THINK (2010), MAKYBE DIVA (2005) and SUNLINE (2000) were able to complete the Memsie/Cox Plate double.

Jockey Mark Zahra aboard FANGIRL during trackwork earlier this week in preparation for the Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield this Saturday. FANGIRL opened the $4.40 Favourite and is looking for her 5th Group 1 victory.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Damian Lane is light years ahead as the Form Jockey leading into the Memsie. Currently, Lane is surpassing market expectations by 33% in his last 100 rides and 30% above his career strike rate. He rides TREASURETHE MOMENT. To put that into perspective, Ethan Brown and Jamie Melham are 15% and 10% above their career average respectively.

However, Melham has a very good strike rate with Trainer Ciaron Maher with the partnership over the past 100 rides exceeding market expectations by 30%. They team up on ANOTHER WIL. The MR BRIGHTSIDE combo of Williams/Hayes has also yielded a strong strike rate with the pairing up 21% on market expectations in their last 100 rides together.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have dominated the Memsie in recent history with 13 winners in the past 22 years (62%). Moreover, the past decade has seen this domination continue with 6 winners since 2015 (60%).

  
  

• So punters are living the good life if they have been consistently backing Favourites in the Memsie – for a $100 stake each year on the Favourite, punters would be up $1965 since 2003 and $895 since 2015.

  
  

• Extraordinarily, there have been only 3 double-digit odd winners in the past 30 years – DISSIDENT (2014), HUMIDOR (2018) and PINSTRIPED (2024).

  
  

• There is a massive bias in terms of barrier position with 21 winners jumping between Barriers 2 – 5 in the past 30 years (70%). This important stat has continued to develop in the last decade with 8 winners jumping between Barriers 2 – 5 since 2015 (80%).

  
  

• Funnily enough, with inside gates producing so much success, Barrier 1 [TREASURETHE MOMENT] has not produced a winner in the past 30 years.

  
  

• Settling in a midfield position has been a recipe for success over the past decade with 8 winners finding themselves between 4th and 7th at the 800m mark.

  
  

• With some rain predicted in Melbourne this week, a Soft track may come into play. 2022 is the only time since 2015 the Memsie was raced on a rain-affected track. SNAPDANCER won by ½ length after leading at the 800m before going on to take victory.

  
  

• Remarkably, 7 of the last 10 winners have been 6YOs – including the last 4 champions. In that same decade, only one Mare has won – SNAPDANCER (2022).

  
  

• 6 of the last 8 winners finished in the quinella of their previous race prior to racing in the Memsie.

  
  

• Apprehensive about ANOTHER WIL wearing Saddlecloth 6? Understandable – Saddlecloth 6 has not won in the past 30 years.

  
  

• Craig Williams first won the Memsie in 2007 on MISS FINLAND. He has also won 3 of the last 8 onboard VEGA MAGIC (2017), BETHEMOTH (2020) and MR BRIGHTSIDE (2023). This Saturday, he saddles up on MR BRIGHTSIDE again – if he is first past the post, he will become the equal Leading Jockey of the Memsie with 5 wins.

To hear Nic's tip for the Memsie Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Has a SP of $9 or less

• Jumping between Barriers 2 – 5

• A 6YO who will settle in or around the midfield

Andy’s Tip: 6. ANOTHER WIL $4.60

I hope you are not superstitious because ANOTHER WILL ticks nearly every box. Despite wearing 6, he will jump from Barrier 3 and will be close to starting as Favourite. A 6YO Gelding with a superb record at the Track, over the Distance and has amazing 1UP form – everything sets up for Melham/Maher to continue their collective success together.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 2. TOM KITTEN $7

"Even though MR BRIGHTSIDE beat him first-up last prep, I thought TOM KTTEN's run was just as good - if not better. And he maps better here so I'd back him to beat Mr B home. FANGIRL's last 2 first-up runs haven't rated that well but the last time she was really tested fresh she posted a number that would just about win this. TREASURETHE MOMENT's fresh rating last prep was probably 2-3L below these but she escalated to a new PB last campaign and we expect her to run her best fresh rating in this. Just worried Barrier 1 forces Damian Lane to use her up early or risk being hemmed away. Gun to my head I'd say TOM KITTEN because he can settle one off the rail midfield, flies the circuit and ran a career peak rating last prep. Tough race to assess and market flucs might tell us who is most forward."

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