Saturday Bets! 2025 Metropolitan Handicap
- TBF
- Oct 2
- 2 min read
The Metropolitan Handicap is Sydney’s premier staying handicap and history shows there are clear patterns with the barriers, the lead-up races and the age of the winners
2025 METROPOLITAN HANDICAP market supplied by Pointsbet
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:
MARKET
6 favourites have won in 25 years
Putting $100 on every favourite since 2000 would see you down $475
The best results have come from finding horses less than $10 but not favourites. This range has provided 8 winners in the last 25 years including 3 of the last 4.
BARRIERS
8 of the last 9 winners have jumped from barriers 2 to 8
LEAD-UP FORM
Early in the 2000s the Colin Stephen was the path, producing COCO COBANNA (2000), DRESS CIRCLE (2001) and RAILINGS (2005)
In the past decade the Kingston Town Stakes has taken over — 7 winners since 2013 including JUST FINE (2023) and LAND LEGEND (2024)
The Newcastle Cup and Naturalism Stakes can produce them but less often
AGE
6YO & 7YOs dominate — 14 winners in the past 25 years
TRAINERS
GAI WATERHOUSE has six wins, most recently with JUST FINE (2023)
CHRIS WALLER has five, including LAND LEGEND (2024)
Between them they’ve trained 14 of the last 30 Metro winners
THE 2025 METROPOLITAN HCP WINNER IS LIKELY TO:
Jump from barriers 2 to 8
Be a 6YO or 7YO
Come through the Kingston Town Stakes
Be trained by Waller or Waterhouse
Only one horse in 2025 fits all of the above criteria while another misses by just one..
No. 10 ETNA ROSSO $11 Barrier 2; 6YO; Kingston Town Lead-up; Trained by Waller
No. 6 ATHABASCAN $51 Barrier 3; 7YO; Kingston Town Lead-up
Meanwhile, our database and resident form guru Nic Ashman have gone around the stats.
TBF DATA SELECTION
No.7 BIRDMAN $6
NIC ASHMAN'S TIP
No.13 ROYAL SUPREMACY $12
Good luck and Happy Punting!
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