Saturday Bets! 2025 Moir Stakes

With 5 Group races across the country this weekend, Spring is in the air with this Saturday’s headline act the G1 Moir Stakes held at The Valley over 1000m under WFA conditions.

Entering its 50th edition, the Moir was originally run on Cox Plate Day, however, in 2013, it was moved closer to the start of the season. Thus, the Moir often serves as an early-season springboard for top sprinters targeting later events like the Manikato Stakes, VRC Sprint Classic or even The Everest. Recent famous winners include: BLACK CAVIAR (2010/11), NATURE STRIP (2019) and IMPERATRIZ (2023).

Jumping from Barrier 10, BARAQIEL is looking for his 8th win in 12 starts and has a perfect record at The Valley with 3 wins. He has opened equal Favourite at $5 and will be ridden by Ben Allen.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Harry Coffey is red hot leading into the Moir striking 21% above market expectations in his last 100 rides and is 26% above his career strike rate. Coffey will ride ARABIAN SUMMER on Saturday. The other 15 Jockeys in the race are only exceeding market expectations by 10% or below in their last 100 rides.

The numbers are also good for Tony Gollan who is the Form Trainer heading into the Moir. He is also currently 26% above his career strike rate and is surpassing market expectations by 28% in his last 100 rides. Worth keeping an eye on GOLDEN BOOM at $31.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have a good record in the Moir with 7 winners in the past 18 years (39%). However, the success of Favourites has dwindled in recent times with only 2 Favourites securing victory in the past 12 years (17%).

  
  

• Backing Favourites in the long run has not been a profitable exercise for punters. Since 1995, punters placing a $100 bet on a Favourite each year in the Moir would be down a whopping $915.

  
  

• And the two Favourites for the Moir don't want to see this too – the last winner of the Moir to jump from a double-digit gate was SPARTACUS in 1996 from Barrier 12. BARAQIEL will jump from 10; NIANCE will jump from 12.

  
  

• Winners have found success jumping from inside gates. Since 2010, 9 winners (60%) have jumped from Barriers 1 – 4. This trend has continued in recent years with remarkably – 5 of the last 6 winners jumping from Barrier 1 or Barrier 4.

  
  

• While recently the Favourites may have missed the mark, their rivals have seized the opportunity to win the Moir. 12 of the last 15 winners (80%) have had SPs of $7 or less.

  
  

• Subsequently, we have not seen many outsiders win the Moir - there have been only 4 double-digit odd winners in the past 30 years – the last being WILD RULER in 2021.

  
  

• Leading the pack is the place to be at the 400m with 6 of the last 11 winners finding themselves coming 1st before making their way onto the short Valley straight.

  
  

• The Girls have a strong record in the Moir winning 13 times since 1995 (43%). This point is accentuated further in the past 8 years when 5 winners have been either Fillies or Mares.

  
  

• 7 of the last 13 winners were 1UP – however, the last 1UP winner of the Moir was back in 2020.

  
  

• Here are the unlucky Saddlecloths this week – 3 and 8 – they have not been ridden to victory in the past 30 years.

  
  

• The last 9 Moir Stakes have been won by 9 different Jockeys and 9 different Trainers.

To hear Nic's tip for the Moir Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• A Girl jumping between Barriers 1 – 4

• Somewhere below the $7 SP range

• Will be looking to lead at the 400m

Andy’s Tip: 12. ALABAMA LASS

With our Favourites in a wide alley, this could set up well for Alabama Lass. Granted – never raced over 1000m, however, she ticks all the above boxes and with her most likely leading at the 400, I’m happy to back her in 1UP.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 6. JEDIBEEL $18

"I can't work out why JEDIBEEL is $18? She hasn't missed a quinella finish in 5 first-up runs and has won 2 of 3 runs at the 1000m. She was caught 3 wide no cover in her only loss over this trip. Flies fresh, genuine 1000m horse, maps perfectly and has one of the best in the saddle. $18 each-way all day."

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