Saturday Bets! 2025 Moonee Valley Vase + Nic's $26 Futures Tip

The penultimate race on Moonee Valley’s race card this Saturday is the 45th edition of the G2 Moonee Valley Vase over 2040m for the 3YOs under Set Weights.

Commencing in 1981, the Vase was originally run over a mile, however, in 1986 it was extended to 2040m to set up contenders for the Victorian Derby. This increase in distance has seen 17 winners of the Derby contest the Vase since 1986. Famous winners of the Vase include: NATURALISM (1991), JAMEKA (2015) and the last winner of the Vase/Derby double EFFICIENT (2006). 

NIC ASHMAN'S SPEED MAP

"OBSERVER takes luck out of the equation and rolls across. He needs a solid run given he's got 2500m next week and is coming off a 1600m run. ONE STEP CLOSER is the horse that can grab his back. CRACK A DEEL near pace with OPTIONS out the back. Not overly confident this'll be the format though as we have a bunch of 3YO going to a new trip for the first time."

NIC ASHMAN'S FUTURES TIP

"I think the 3YO fillies are only fair from what we've seen in the Flight, Thousand Guineas and Ethereal Stakes. I got asked to do the figures on SHEEZA DIVA and discovered she is the best of the girls at 1600m+. She should've run 2nd in the Gloaming. She's an each-way bet in the Spring Champion at $34 but I'd be having a decent each-way play at the $26 in the Oaks. She'll thrive when back to her own sex."

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Blake Shinn tops the Form Jockeys guide heading into the Vase – surpassing market expectations by 36% in his last 100 rides and 34% above his career strike rate. He will saddle up ARCORA who will jump from Barrier 6 – the most successful barrier in the Vase in the past 30 years, winning 6 times.

The Form Trainer is Henry Dwyer who is also in hot form leading into the Vase – exceeding market expectations by 30% in his last 100 rides. He takes CRACK A DEEL to the Vase looking for his first win in the race.

The Jockey/Trainer combo to look out for is Mott/Ryan – as a partnership, they are 16% above market expectations in their last 100 rides together. Guess which partnership won this race last year with RED ACES? The very same Mott/Ryan partnership. Keep an eye on HIGHVOL in 2025.

Cox Plate Day Quaddie Analysis

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have a wonderful record in the Vase winning 14 times since 1995 – a strike rate of 47%. To support this stat even further, the last 5 editions of the Vase have been won by the Favourite on 4 occasions (80%).

  
  

• While the tremendous success of Favourites has been a safe bet, it has paid out like a term deposit – a $100 bet each year on the Favourite in the past 30 years has accumulated the average punter $547.

  
  

• This speaks volumes to how the short-priced contenders have dominated the Vase:

  • There has been only one double-digit winner in the past 30 years – STARS OF CARRUM (2018) at $51

  • 29 of the last 30 winners have had a SP of $9 or less

  • The average SP of those 29 winners was $3.85

  • 9 of the last 10 winners have had a SP of $4.60 or less

• More than half the winners of the Vase since 1995 have come from just a three-barrier sweet spot – 16 winners have been produced from Barriers 4 – 6 in the past 30 years (53%).

  
  

• This trend has continued in recent years with 7 winners in the past decade jumping from Barriers 4 – 6 – and enhanced again in the past 5 years with Barriers 4 - 6 producing 4 winners.

  
  

• Settling in an on-pace position has been a recipe for success – 6 winners in the past decade have found themselves 3rd, 4th or 5th at the 800m mark.

  
  

• There have been 6 different lead-up races used by the past 9 winners before taking out the Vase – the most common however, is the Caulfield Guineas which has produced 4 winners since 2016.

  
  

• Lead-up form has been indifferent by Vase winners – 5 of the last 6 Vase winners did not place in their run before winning the Vase.

  
  

• Want the lucky Saddlecloths? Well it’s 1 and 2 – collectively, these numbers have won 18 times in the past 30 years (60%).

  
  

• Fascinatingly, no 3YO has come back to win the Cox Plate after winning the Vase the previous year.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Favourite – or at least in single-digit odds

• Wearing lucky Saddlecloth 1 or 2

• Raced in the Caulfield Guineas

Andy’s Tip: 1. OBSERVER $1.95

You really can’t dismiss the exceptional record of short-priced contenders in the Vase which is why you really can’t dismiss OBSERVER – and a third-place finish in the Guineas behind AUTUMN BOY must carry some weight too. Barrier not ideal – but FORGOT YOU won from Barrier 9 in 2021 as a $2 Favourite and with Mark Zahra on board after winning this event two years ago, I’m happy there are enough historical parallels to get him over the line.

Nic Ashman's Tip:

"Got OBSERVER clearly on top but O'SHEAMUS ran decent time last start and John O'Shea has won this race before. He gets here with the right set-up having had a relatively easy prep in terms of hard runs. Think Damian Lane will really suit his style and happy to speck him each-way as part of a 2-bet strategy."

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