Saturday Bets! 2026 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
- Andy G
- 13 hours ago
- 4 min read
Day 2 of The Championships this Saturday is headlined by the iconic Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a $5 million WFA contest over 2000m that stands as one of Australia’s ultimate tests of middle-distance excellence.
The 73rd running of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes once again promises to showcase a world-class field, uniting elite performers from Australia and across the globe in a race that consistently delivers one of the best assemblies of talent seen anywhere in world racing. Its rich history is defined by champions whose legacies still echo through the sport—from three-time champion TULLOCH (1958/60/61), to the sheer dominance of MIGHT AND POWER (1998) and the brilliance of LONHRO (2003). In the modern era, the race has continued to elevate greatness, with the incomparable WINX (2017/18/19) securing a historic three-peat, the international star ADDEYBB (2020/21) going back-to-back, and the electrifying VIA SISTINA (2025) adding her name to an honour roll that reflects the very pinnacle of thoroughbred excellence.
Trainer/Jockey Chat
With only four Trainers represented in this year’s edition of the Queen Elizabeth, the spotlight naturally falls on the formidable partnership of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, who have emerged as key contenders for the race. Their recent record speaks volumes - from their last 50 runners, they’ve secured 8 winners and an additional 16 placings, delivering an impressive 32% top-three strike rate - notably 3% higher than their already strong career average. On paper, this consistency positions SIR DELIUS as a serious contender, almost certain to feature in the finish.
Meanwhile, although several Jockey bookings are yet to be confirmed, one name already locked in is Zac Lloyd, who is enjoying a sensational Autumn Carnival. With 11 wins from his past 50 rides, he’s operating at a sharp 22% strike rate comfortably above his career average of 19%. Lloyd will partner CAVIAR HEIGHTS, a horse knocking firmly on the door with three second-place finishes in his last four outings. The stage is set for a compelling contest, and all eyes will be on whether Lloyd can deliver the decisive ride that finally pushes CAVIAR HEIGHTS across the line in front.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:
Favourites are increasingly dominant – since 1995, 13 Favourites have won, accounting for 42% of all winners in that period - but this trend has strengthened significantly over time. From 2010 onward, 8 Favourites (50%) have saluted, and in the past 9 years, that dominance has surged even further, with Favourites winning 67% of the time.
Short-priced runners overwhelmingly prevail - not only are Favourites winning more often, but the market is tightly concentrated at the top. An impressive 12 of the past 13 winners started at $8 or shorter, reinforcing the idea that the winner is almost always found among the leading chances. The only exceptions in the past 13 years were THINK IT OVER (2022) and RLIABLE MAN (2013), both of whom defied the trend at double-digit odds.
Inside barriers provide a decisive advantage - barrier draws have proven crucial, with 18 winners (58%) since 1995 jumping from gates 1 to 4. This pattern has held firm over time - 10 of the last 16 winners (63%) and 5 of the past 6 winners have come from these inside draws. Even in smaller fields, the consistent success of low barriers highlights an edge, particularly in securing favourable early positions.
Early positioning and barrier draw go hand-in-hand - of the last 5 winners who were positioned in the top three at the 800m mark, four jumped from Barriers 1 to 4. This reinforces the connection between an inside draw and the ability to settle prominently and controlling the race tempo.
Lead-up race: Ranvet Stakes is a key form reference - the Ranvet Stakes has emerged as a critical lead-up, producing 4 winners of the Queen Elizabeth in the past 6 years. Notably, all 4 of those winners finished in the quinella in that race, indicating that not just participation - but a standout performance - is a strong predictor of success.
Consistency in recent form is also essential – a remarkable 15 of the last 16 winners finished in the top four at their previous start. This highlights the importance of entering the race in peak form.
Rosehill form dominates the lead-up pathway - 12 of the past 13 winners had their previous start at Rosehill, underlining the importance of the Sydney Autumn Carnival lead-up races. Familiarity with local conditions and competition appears to be a major advantage.
Optimal lead-up distance trends - distance patterns in lead-up races are quite defined - the last 6 winners all came off a 2000m race, while the 5 winners before them stepped up from 1500m.
Mares are outperforming historical expectations - while Mares have won only 12 times in the race’s 71-year history, 7 of those victories have come in the past 14 years. This sharp uptick—including last year’s winner VIA SISTINA suggests a shift in the quality and competitiveness of elite female stayers.
Older horses hold a clear edge - experience counts in this race - the last 10 winners have all been 5YO or older. The last 4YO to win was CRITERION in 2015.
Certain Saddlecloths have struggled historically - interestingly, Saddlecloths 6 and 8 have not produced a winner in 30 years.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:
Is a Favourite considering their recent high success rate
Has an inside draw
Raced at Rosehill last start
Placed in the top four of that race
Andy's Tip: 7. AUTUMN GLOW $1.40
Ok - I get it. She is a $1.40. But I can only go off the historical trends - and she ticks every box above - plus the recent success of Mares makes this a slam dunk. She will have to be the first 4YO since 2015 to win and also come through the George Ryder route - something not done since WINX back in 2019. Put her in a multi if you wish - it seems like a leg that will get up.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 2. SIR DELIUS $6
"I've got his peak rating 1L below AUTUMN GLOW's peak and he was given a soft time early last time out in the Ranvet. Would've been more confident had PRIDE OF JENNI lined up but still think he can roll forward and make this a test from the 800m. That's how he can win it."
If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get.
Comments