Saturday Bets! 2026 Sydney Cup
- Andy G
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
Championship Day 2 delivers the ultimate staying test in the G1 Sydney Cup - two miles under Handicap conditions where 6 of the last 8 winners have lobbed at $12 to $26 – is this another year for the value hunters to be paid off?
Now in its 161st edition, the Sydney Cup traces its origins back to 1866, when the inaugural running was claimed by YATTENDON. Just a few years later, racing folklore was forever shaped by the legendary THE BARB, who, as a 5YO carried an extraordinary 67kg to victory – a feat that remains unmatched in the history of the race. As one of only two G1 races in Australia contested over the demanding 3200 metres, the Sydney Cup has long stood as a true test of endurance, class, and resilience. Over the decades, it has crowned a remarkable roll call of champions, including the great KINGSTON TOWN (1980), WAKEFUL (1902), CARBINE (1889/90), EURYTHMIC (1921), TIE THE KNOT (1998/99), MAKYBE DIVA (2004), each adding their own chapter to the enduring legacy of this historic race.
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Recent riding and training statistics paint a compelling picture heading into this race, with several key figures performing well above market expectations. Tyler Schiller has been in outstanding form, surpassing market projections by 31% across his last 100 rides, while Zac Lloyd is not far behind, exceeding expectations by 29% over the same period. However, it is Luke Cartwright who stands out as the form Jockey of the moment, delivering an exceptional 34% above market expectations in his last 100 rides and operating at a striking 44% above his career strike rate—a level of performance that demands attention. He partners with MACHINE GUN GRACIE in the Cup.
On the training front, the Hayes brothers continue to set the benchmark, outperforming by 19% in their last 100 runners and maintaining a strike rate 20% above their long-term average. Nevertheless, Ciaron Maher remains a formidable presence, closely tracking their performance with runners exceeding expectations by 17% and operating 18% above his career strike rate. With a strong hand in the race through PIGGYBACK, JUJA KIBO and MR MONACO, Maher’s influence could prove decisive in what shapes as a highly competitive contest.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:
Favourites have a mixed but still profitable history - while 10 Favourites have won since 1995, only 4 have saluted since 2010, highlighting a clear shift toward less predictable outcomes in recent years. However, despite this decline in strike rate, backing the Favourite hasn’t been a losing strategy overall. If Joe our average punter staked $100 on the Favourite each year since 1995, it would leave Joe ahead by $1008, reinforcing that even in an increasingly open race, Favourites still hold underlying value over the long term.
The market consistently underestimates mid-to-long priced runners - recent results strongly favour horses at double-figure odds, with 6 of the last 8 winners having a SP between $12 and $26, and 8 of the last 11 at $10 or higher. Even more striking, 5 of those winners paid between $18 and $41, underlining a recurring pattern - this race pays those willing to look outside the top of the market.
Barrier draws show dual patterns of advantage - low draws in Barriers 1 - 4 have produced 7 winners since 2010, suggesting an advantage in securing economical runs along the rail. However, this is counterbalanced by the success of wider draws in recent times, with Barriers 10 - 14 producing 5 winners in the past decade. This indicates that while inside gates can help, horses capable of settling and finishing strongly from wider positions are equally dangerous.
Race position at the 800m is a key predictive indicator - a significant 6 of the last 11 winners were positioned off-midfield or further back at the 800m mark, pointing to a strong late-closing bias.
The Chairman’s Quality is the premier lead-up race — Since 1995, 15 winners have come through the Chairman’s Quality, and its importance has only increased in modern times with 9 winners since 2010 following that path. Even more recently, 4 of the last 7 winners contested it, confirming it as the most reliable form reference heading into the race.
Strong performance in the Chairman’s Quality is crucial — not only is the race a key lead-up, but performance within it matters greatly - the last 7 winners who came through the Chairman’s Quality all finished in the top four.
Another key form line – 2 of the last 3 winners have used the Tancred Stakes as part of their preparation, and only 4 winners in the last 21 years have not come through either the Chairman’s Quality or the Tancred. This makes these two races overwhelmingly important when assessing serious contenders.
Prep stage is a factor - An overwhelming 7 of the last 8 winners were either 4UP or 5UP in their prep, indicating that horses peaking deep into their campaign hold a clear advantage.
Lightweights have a clear edge - weight trends are decisive, with 6 of the last 7 winners carrying 52.5kg or less, and 9 of the last 11 also falling into this bracket. Notably, 5 of those carried just 51.5kg, reinforcing that lighter weights significantly enhance a horse’s chances in this staying contest.
Heavier weights are a major hurdle - winning with more than 55kg is rare, achieved by only 9 horses since 1995. Last year’s winner ARAPAHO, carrying 56kg, stands out as a genuine exception, emphasising how difficult it is to defy higher weight burdens in this race.
Older horses dominate the age profile - 14 of the last 16 winners have been 5YOs or older. Only two exceptions exist recently – CIRCLE OF FIRE (2024) and JESSICABEEL (2010), both 4YOs - showing just how rare it is for younger horses to break through.
Mares rarely win despite opportunities - only 4 Mares have won since 1995 (the last ETAH JAMES in 2020), illustrating the girls face an uphill battle against typically stronger and more seasoned male counterparts.
Chris Waller stands on the brink of history in the Sydney Cup, with a chance to become the race’s outright Leading Trainer - he needs just one more win to make it 6 in total - and he’s armed with a powerful four-horse contingent – RIVER OF STARS, SOUL OF SPAIN, VALIANT KING and HUTCHENCE.
Saddlecloth 6 is a historical anomaly - remarkably, Saddlecloth 6 has not produced a winner in 30 years.
Get Nic Ashman's insights into the Championships Day 2 as well as across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:
Is of value - $10 or more
A lightweight
On the more experienced side
Andy's Tip: 10. JUJA KIBO $17
This looks pretty good for JUJA KIBO – hits the brief in being of value and carries only 52kg, but this 5YO Gelding also has other historical upside – has a lovely, successful wide gate in 10 and placed in the Chairmans Quality last week. Being the ideal 5UP in his prep, this sets up well for the Ciaron Maher stable.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 14. LITZDEEL $14
Fourth-up and yet to miss a Quinella finish this stage of prep. Beaten by a good wet tracker in the Roy Higgins last start. Maps beautifully here and think she goes better back on top of the ground.
Also taking place this Saturday are two more G1s – the Australian Oaks and the Queen Of The Turf Stakes. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:
AUSTRALIAN OAKS
2400m – Group 1 – 3YOs Fillies: Set Weights
Favourites have won 11 times since 1995, including 6 of the last 9.
8 of the last 10 winners had SPs of $5 or less.
Only one winner in the last decade triumphed at double-figure odds.
4 of the last 6 winners jumped from Barriers 2 - 4.
8 of the last 10 winners were positioned between 4th – 8th at the 800m.
11 winners since 2010 ran in the Vinery Stud Stakes or Adrian Knox Stakes prior.
9 of the last 10 winners finished in the quinella at their previous start.
QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES
1600m – Group 1 – Fillies & Mares: Weight For Age
Favourites have won 13 of the last 30 editions.
7 winners in the past decade who were not Favourites started at $10 or more.
Since 1995, 53% of winners have come from Barriers 5 - 9.
12 of the last 15 winners finished in the first four at their previous start.
Only 3 winners have been aged 6YO or older.
No Emancipation Stakes winner has gone on to win the Queen Of The Turf.
TREASURETHE MOMENT is aiming to be the first double winner since MORE JOYOUS in 2012.
J-Mac is chasing 3 consecutive wins; Chris Waller is chasing 4 in a row.
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