Saturday Bets! 2026 The Doncaster Mile

A mile in distance. A famous handicap and $4 million in prizemoney – this is Day 1 of The Championships, and the renowned Doncaster Mile will crown its next champion in its 161st edition.  

The Doncaster Mile stands as one of the crown jewels of Australian racing, a prestigious Group 1 contest for open-class horses held each year at Royal Randwick. Inaugurated in 1866, it has long been celebrated as the nation’s ultimate mile race, distinguished not only for its rich history but also for its genuineness in giving every contender a chance.

Across more than a century and a half, its honour roll has become a tapestry of turf legends, featuring iconic champions such as double winners SUPER IMPOSE (1990/91) and SUNLINE (1999/2002) but also one-time champions such as WINX (2016), TOBIN BRONZE (1967), WAKEFUL (1901) and MORE JOYOUS (2012). Beyond these, a glittering list of notable victors further cements the ‘Donny’s’ reputation as a defining stage where champions are remembered as part of Australia’s enduring racing legacy.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Leading Trainers John O’Shea and Tom Charlton are currently enjoying a rich vein of form, having produced 12 winners from their last 50 runners – a sharp 24% strike rate that sits 5% above their performance across their previous 360 starters. This consistency is further underscored by an additional 14 placings in that same last 50-runner sample, highlighting a stable that is not only winning but repeatedly putting horses in the finish. With that momentum behind them, they now send LINEBACKER to the Doncaster with genuine confidence.

Meanwhile, in the saddle, the impact of lightweight riders cannot be overstated, and a couple stand out in recent numbers. Craig Williams is operating at a 22% strike rate from his last 50 rides – an impressive figure that’s 8% above his longer-term average making his booking aboard PERICLES particularly noteworthy. Similarly, Tyler Schiller is riding a wave of success, also striking at 22% from his last 50 mounts, but even more strikingly, that figure sits a remarkable 12% above his broader 360-ride baseline. His engagement with STEPARTY adds another layer of intrigue, as both jockey and horse look to capitalise on this surge in form.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:

• Favourites are failing the test - the Dony has become a graveyard for Favourites. Only 8 have saluted since 1995 (25%), and that figure has sharply declined in recent years. Just 3 Favourites have won in the past 18 years (16%), and remarkably, only one has delivered in the last 9, highlighting the uncertainty around the top of the market.

• Expect the unexpected in the market - while many winners still start well-fancied, 7 of the last 11 had SPs of $8 or less, the Donny has a habit of producing blowouts. 3 of the last 6 winners have won at double-figure odds, ranging from $18 to $41.

  
  

• Barrier draws: wide or within, both can win - with Donnys having large fields, this means no obvious bias with winners emerging from Barriers 1 - 18 since 1995. Notably, 14 winners in this period have come from Barriers 11 - 18. However, recent trends favour inside draws, with Barriers 2–5 producing 4 of the last 5 winners.

  
  

• Backmarkers dominate the modern pattern - 8 of the last 11 winners were settled in an off-midfield or back position at the 800m mark, indicating that strong finishes and well-timed runs are often the winning formula.

  
  

• Track conditions shift race shape - on the rare occasions the Donny is run on a Good track (just 3 times in 20 years), the pattern flips. 2 of those winners raced on pace, suggesting leaders can be far more effective when conditions are firm.

  
  

• The premier pathway - the George Ryder continues to be the most reliable lead-up, producing 15 winners since 1995. More recently, 7 of the last 11 winners came through this race, with 5 finishing in the top four making it a key form reference.

  
  

• Alternative lead-ups are emerging - while traditional paths hold strong, the Donny is evolving. 4 winners in the past 9 years have come via different routes, including races like the All-Star Mile and the Randwick Guineas.

  
  

• Lightweights hold a clear edge - the Handicap conditions heavily favour those carrying less. 5 of the last 7 winners carried 53kg or less, while 17 of the past 23 carried 55kg or under making weight a critical factor in assessing chances.

  
  

• Topweights rarely prevail - only two horses in that same 23-year period have managed to carry 57kg or more to victory - HAPPY CLAPPER (2018) and MORE JOYOUS (2012).

  
  

• Less experience and less weight - benefiting from lighter handicaps, 3YOs have claimed 33 wins across the Donny's history (20%), with a notable surge in modern times - 10 winners in the past 27 years (38%). Meanwhile, older horses are struggling, with just one 5YO and one 7YO winner in the past 13 years.

  
  

• Mares face an uphill battle - historically, Mares are underrepresented on the victory board with 21% of the wins, STEFI MAGNETICA bucked that trend last year becoming the first Mare since NETTOYER (2020) to win and the first 4YO Mare since WINX (2016) to claim the crown.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:

• Not a Favourite - but in the market

• Has a gate near the rail

• Looking to settle in the second half of the field

• A lightweight

Andy's Tip: 10. ATTICA $15

SHEZA ALIBI is the one everyone will want to be on - and you can't blame punters from loading up on her. But - if we follow the historical rhetoric, we might find something that could be the upset we have seen so many times in the Donny. ATTICA - has an OP of $15 (and we have had 3 winners in 6 years at double-digit odds); gets the sweet ride along the rail from Barrier 3; will settle in a midfield/off-pace position; had a run in the George Ryder and is only 50kg. If the odds-on Favourite does not get it done, then there is plenty of value out there - and ATTICA could be your winning ticket.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 15. SHEZA ALIBI $2

Sorry to be the boring one tipping the favourite but she is a genuine $2 chance in a major G1 because of that last start rating in the Randwick Guineas. Unless she's gone backwards, we have her running a figure that none of these can match. Want a roughie? ENCAP - placed in the race last year and has finished within 1L or so in 2 of his 3 runs at G1 level this T&D. Big odds at $81

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