Saturday Bets! 2026 The Goodwood
- Andy G
- May 6
- 4 min read
Just 17 Favourites in the past 91 years have managed to win The Goodwood - an unforgiving stat that turns every ‘sure thing’ into a question mark before the gates even open.
The Goodwood is a G1 open sprint contested over 1200m under Set Weights and Penalties conditions, carrying $1 million in prizemoney and now run in its 141st edition. First staged in 1881 and won by D.O.D., it is one of South Australia’s key sprint races, typically attracting high-quality fields. A notable pattern in recent decades has been the strong influence of Victorian-trained runners, with only 4 winners from outside Victoria in the past 25 years – LET’S GO THOMMO, TAKEOVER TARGET, TREKKING and SAVATOXL. The race’s honour roll includes several prominent sprinters, most notably BLACK CAVIAR (2012), ROYAL GEM (1946) and AURIE’S STAR (1940), reflecting its long-standing place in the South Australian racing calendar.
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Jockey Luke Cartwright comes into this race in exceptional form, currently outperforming market expectations by an impressive 50% across his last 100 rides - He partners EXTRAGALACTIC, and with his current momentum, the pairing commands serious attention.
On the Training side, the combination of Pat Carey and Harris Walker is similarly hard to overlook. Their runners have exceeded market expectations by 57% over their last 100 starters, operating at a level 37% above their established career strike rate. That kind of uplift points to a stable firing on all cylinders - horses are well-prepared, placed intelligently, and peaking at the right time. They saddle RECON for this contest, and given their current trajectory, it would be no surprise to see that runner outperform its odds.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:
Favourites struggle historically - only 17 Favourites have won in the last 91 years, highlighting the race’s strong tendency toward upset results.
Since 2000, just 5 Favourites have saluted, with the most recent being BLACK HEART BART (2016).
Big prices regularly succeed - 6 of the last 8 winners presented SPs between $10 and $26, showing strong value horses often dominate.
Since 2005, there have been 14 winners priced $7 or more, underlining the race’s openness.
Barrier influence is moderate but notable - the dog-leg start reduces the overall importance of Barriers, however, Barriers 5 to 9 have produced 16 winners since 1991, including 4 in the last 9 years.
Race positioning is critical late - 10 of the last 20 winners were positioned inside the Top 5 at the 400m mark, showing the importance of being within striking distance turning for home.
Lead-up form matters - the last 9 winners not 1UP all placed in their previous start, indicating strong recent form is a key requirement.
Long-term weight trend - across the past 35 editions of the race, 18 winners carried 55kg or less to victory, suggesting lightweight runners having a meaningful advantage.
The anomaly - over 11 years from 2012 to 2022, the pattern flipped - every single winner in that period carried between 55.5kg and 58.5kg.
Age profile trends - 9 winners since 2015 have been either 4YO or 5YO. Expanding on this sample, 15 of the last 21 winners fall into the 4YO-5YO bracket, making it the dominant age profile.
Sex and type trends shifting - 9 of the last 12 winners have been Geldings, historically the most successful category.
However, there has been a recent shift - the last 3 winners were a Filly, a Mare, and a Colt, suggesting a new, broader competitiveness across sex types.
The 2025 winner RESERVE BANK was the first Colt to win since PERFECTLY READY (2006).
The quirk - Saddlecloth 9 has not produced a winner in the past 35 years.
Get Nic Ashman's insights into The Goodwood as well as across the country this weekend via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:
Is NOT a Favourite
Placed at their last start
Is on the lighter side
Andy's Tip: 7. TYCOON STAR $8
There is a lot to like about this 3YO Colt - he's 4UP after placing in each of his last 3 starts. His 1UP run this prep was a second place finish by 0.1L on a H10 down the Flemington straight behind THANKS GORGEOUS who was carrying over 3kg less; last start he won a G2 at Morphetville over 1200m carrying 57.5kg. He drops an extra 3kg for The Goodwood and although he needs to come across from the furthest gate, $8 still seems like overs for a track where barrier position for a sprint seems has proven inconsequential.
Nic Ashman's Tip: 16. EXTRAGALACTIC
"Best last 600m of the day last start when she couldn't have done any more from the position she was in. This is another step up but there's nothing running super time to suggest she can't take that next step. Love the map for 14. NEW YORK LUSTRE who was good behind GRAND LARCENY first-up and beat FLYING FOR FUN last prep - small play each-way at $21."
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