NRL 2026 - Round 10 Preview

Here are the stats and predictions for the upcoming round of the NRL.

These are the notes I use for 2GB radio and other media gigs for NRL updates.

Dolphins v Bulldogs — Thursday

Canterbury lead the overall record 2 to 1, but this is the first meeting between the clubs at Suncorp. The Dolphins have quietly built a strong defensive profile at the venue with their last three games here producing total points between 32 and 38. That’s well below where the market often expects them to play.

The Dogs are also struggling to generate big attacking totals. They’ve only scored more than 24 points once in their last five games, while the Dolphins themselves have ranged between 12 and 28 in that period. Add in Canterbury’s poor record at Suncorp against higher ranked teams and this shapes as a controlled, lower scoring contest.

TIP: Dolphins / Under 50.5pts

Roosters v Titans — Friday

The Roosters lead this matchup 17 to 9 overall and have won their last six games at Polytec. They also hold the record for most points scored in a game at the venue which tells you how explosive their attack can become when momentum swings their way.

Recent scoring trends are hard to ignore. The Roosters have scored between 31 and 40 points in four of their last five games and look capable of landing in that range again against a Titans side that continues to leak points when defensive pressure builds.

TIP: Roosters 31–40pts

Cowboys v Eels — Friday

Parramatta lead the overall record 26 to 22 and are surprisingly 4 and 0 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. Form however has shifted heavily toward North Queensland. The Cowboys have won four of their last five while the Eels have dropped four of five and continue to struggle for attacking rhythm.

That’s reflected in the scoring data. Parramatta have scored between 10 and 20 points in four of their last five games. Their team total is set at 22.5 and recent form says they’re unlikely to clear it unless the game completely opens up.

TIP: Cowboys / Eels Under 22.5pts

Dragons v Knights — Saturday

St George remain winless in 2026 and the attack has become a major issue. They haven’t scored more than 18 points in any of their last five games which means their path to victory is obvious — slow the game down and turn it into a grind.

That style can still work against Newcastle, particularly if the Knights struggle to generate momentum through the middle. Expect a conservative approach from the Dragons and a game that stays under the market total.

TIP: Dragons / Under 52.5pts

Rabbitohs v Sharks — Saturday

Both teams have won three of their last five games in 2026, but Cronulla have had the edge in this matchup, winning the last five clashes between the clubs. More importantly, these games rarely turn into shootouts.

Only one of those five meetings has gone above 42 total points which highlights how often this matchup becomes an arm wrestle. Territory, discipline and goal kicking usually decide it late.

TIP: Either team by Under 10.5pts / Under 53.5pts

Manly v Broncos — Saturday

Brisbane lead the recent matchup 3 to 2 over the last five meetings, but games at Brookvale have been rare. Manly still hold a strong 11 to 6 record at the venue and smashed Brisbane 34 to 6 the last time these sides met here in 2025.

Margins are the key angle. Five of the last six clashes have been decided by 13 points or more which suggests this fixture rarely stays tight once momentum swings. If Manly control early field position at Brookvale they can put teams away quickly.

TIP: Manly 13+

Storm v Tigers — Sunday

This is one of the strangest games of the round. Melbourne have now lost seven straight while the Tigers have quietly won five of their last eight. Yet despite the current form line, the Storm have still won the last five clashes between these clubs.

It’s the type of game where logic almost disappears. Melbourne are vulnerable but the matchup history still screams dominance. Hard to trust either side confidently, but if the Storm click they’re capable of completely blowing the game open.

TIP: Storm by 30pts or more $7.50

Raiders v Panthers — Sunday

The overall record sits almost dead even at 43 to 41 in favour of Penrith, but Canberra have the stronger venue profile leading 20 to 12 at GIO Stadium. Recent clashes have also been extremely tight with just four points separating the teams across the last two meetings.

This shapes as another physical contest where territory and kicking game matter more than attacking flair. With Canberra at home and recent games staying close, the line looks slightly too high.

TIP: Under 50.5pts