Saturday Bets! 2026 TJ Smith Stakes
- Andy G
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
A true test across every distance - Championship Day 1 at Royal Randwick brings together another 3 G1s this Saturday with the long distance challenge of the Australian Derby, the 2YOs over the middle distance of the ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes, and the country’s fastest horses over the sprint of the TJ Smith.
The TJ Smith Stakes stands as one of Australia’s premier sprints raced under WFA conditions, and its milestone 30th edition - run for a remarkable $3 million in prizemoney - only reinforces its prestige on the Australian Racing calendar. First claimed by MAHOGANY in 1997, the race has since become synonymous with greatness, showcasing some of the finest sprinters ever to grace the turf. Multiple winners include - BLACK CAVIAR (2011/13), CHAUTAUQUA (2015/16/17) and NATURE STRIP (2020/21/22). Alongside these multiple champions, the honour roll sparkles with elite single winners such as TAKEOVER TARGET (2009), APACHE CAT (2008), and SANTA ANA LANE (2019).
NIC ASHMAN SPEED MAP
Trainer/Jockey Chat
Highlighted earlier in Tuesday’s edition of the SATURDAY BETS! article, Tyler Schiller has been performing well above market expectations, exceeding them by 31% across his last 100 rides and operating at a strike rate 30% higher than his career average. He partners last year’s winner BRIASA, adding further interest to his chances.
Trainer Ciaron Maher has also been in strong form, surpassing market expectations by 12% from his past 100 runners, and he saddles JJIMMYSSTAR in this contest. Meanwhile, the standout Jockey/Trainer combination is Rachel King and Joe Pride, who have combined to outperform the market by an impressive 33% over their last 100 rides together. They team up with MAZU in the TJ, and should wet conditions eventuate, their chances could significantly improve, putting them firmly in contention.
Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2026 edition:
Favourites win often - but not profitably: Favourites have claimed victory 10 times since 1997 (34%), showing they’re consistently competitive. However, Average Joe has not made much money – placing a $100 on every Favourite over the past 29 editions of the TJ would see Joe down $346 overall.
The market is usually a reliable guide: A striking 12 of the last 13 winners had a SP of $9 or less, and only two winners since 2011 have won at double-digit odds. This highlights how rarely the race is won by a true outsider.
Barrier draws can provide a subtle edge: Inside gates have proven advantageous, with 11 winners in the past 29 years (38%) jumping from Barriers 1 – 4. More recently, this trend has strengthened, with 4 of the last 6 winners coming from these low draws.
Race positioning is crucial in the final stages: Being close to the action matters - 6 of the last 8 winners were positioned in the top four as the field turned for home at the 400m mark, emphasising the importance of being on speed.
The Newmarket Handicap - a traditional but fading pathway: The Newmarket Handicap has long been a key lead-up, with 5 TJ winners in the last 12 years coming through the race. Impressively, 4 of those 5 runners finished in the trifecta in the Newmarket. However, its recent influence has declined, with only one winner in the past 6 years following this route.
The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes - a modern path: More recently, the Lightning Stakes has become a strong form reference, with 4 of the last 5 TJ winners having raced in it earlier in their prep, making it one of the most relevant lead-up races.
Unusual lead-up paths can still produce winners: Last year’s winner, BRIASA, broke a long-standing pattern by coming through The Galaxy becoming the first to do so since BENTLEY BISCUIT in 2007.
Strong last-start form is almost essential: A remarkable 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the trifecta in their previous race, underlining the importance of coming in hot.
Older horses hold a clear advantage: Experience counts in this race - 7 winners in the past decade have been 5YO or older. 3YOs have struggled by comparison, with only 6 winners since 1997, the most recent being TRAPEZE ARTIST in 2018.
Fillies and Mares rarely salute: Just 8 female horses have won the race overall - 3 victories have come in the past 15 years – CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (2024) and the legendary Black Caviar (2011/13).
Certain Saddlecloth numbers have never delivered: Interestingly, Saddlecloths 4 and 8 have yet to produce a TJ winner, but here is a quirkier stat - only two horses with single-word names have won in the past 15 years - the three-time champion CHAUTAUQUA (2015/16/17) and last year’s winner BRIASA.
Get Nic Ashman's insights into the Championships Day 1 at Randwick as well as across the country via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.
To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who:
Is a contender under $9
Will come around the bend in the top four
Hit a top three finish last start
Not a girl
Andy's Tip: 2. BRIASA $9.50
So, this looks like a process of elimination - TENTYRIS is arguably the best sprinter in the land, but may get squeezed in Barrier 1 and will come from the back – and not down a straight. Needs luck. JOLIESTAR lays claim, but girls have a poor record; JIMMYSSTAR stakes its claim to be Australia's top sprinter, but also will come from the back from Barrier 2. So, this sets up nicely for last year's winner, BRIASA. It follows The Galaxy route and will have a SP below $9. Most importantly, it steps up 2UP with 3 wins from 4 attempts and should find a position on-pace behind OVERPASS and MAZU - looks like a case of 'you other three who think you are better than me, come catch me and stop me winning two TJs in a row...'
Nic Ashman's Tip: "Hard to tip against TENTYRIS but the map stinks. He's surrounded by horses with similar gate speed and none will let him out, you'd think. Parking my huge opinion of him, I'd play this race from a map rather than ratings perspective. OVERPASS and BRIASA map beautifully and a small win bet on each looks the right play for this race."
Also taking place this Saturday are two more G1s – the Australian Derby and the Sires Produce Stakes. Below are some historical stats and trends to consider when trying to land a winner:
AUSTRALIAN DERBY
2400m – Group 1 – 3YOs: Set Weights
Only 8 Favourites have won since 1995 (26%), however, 3 have won in the last 4 years.
11 of the last 16 winners had SPs of $8 or less
14 winners since 1995 jumped from Barriers 1 – 4, but 7 of the last 16 winners started from Barriers 5 – 9.
15 winners in the past 30 years came via the Rosehill Guineas – but only two have used this path in the last decade.
5 of the last 8 winners came through the Tulloch Stakes – all 5 winners finished in the quinella in that race.
The last 9 winners all placed in the quinella in their previous race. 6 of those 9 winners actually won their previous race.
10 Fillies have won the Derby in 164 years – last year’s winner AEILANA was the first Filly winner since SHAMROCKER in 2011.
ATC SIRES PRODUCE STAKES
1400m – Group 1 – 2YOs: Set Weights
Favourites have a strong record with 11 winners since 1996 (37%), including 3 of the last 5 winners.
Most winners are well supported, with 9 of the last 15 having a SP of $4.60 or less.
Historically, gate success is evenly split, but inside Barriers 1 – 5 have won 4 of the last 5.
Winners typically settle midfield with 7 winners in the past decade, either 6th or 8th at the 800m.
15 of the last 20 winners of the Sires finished in the trifecta in their last start.
Unsurprisingly, 20 of the last 30 winners came through the Golden Slipper, with 6 of the last 7 winners backed up from the Slipper.
Only 5 horses have done the Slipper/Sires double since 1996, however, it’s the Slipper runners-up who have greater success producing 7 Sires winners.
Fillies have a solid record — 12 winners since 1996 – the latest MANAAL (2024).
If you want the latest Track Reports and key intel ahead of raceday then check out our product suite and see what our members get.
Comments