Basic Jockey Ratings ahead of Cup Week

Cup week form analysis isn’t just about finding the right horse, the right jockey is equally as important.

Capacity fields, big audiences and lucrative prizemoney make Cup week victories even sweeter.

More eyes are engaged with racing during this week than any other week of the year.

For lesser-known jockeys, a win during Cup week could be all they need to capture the attention of the right owner or trainer, one that will provide them with a horse to take their career to the next level.

For the champion hoops, there’s very little Group 1 racing after Cup week, leaving them less afraid of the stewards’ room especially if it means rewarding a loyal owner/trainer with a much need victory.

Hungry jockeys with nothing to lose coupled with capacity fields makes Cup week no place for an out of form hoop.

Forget about 90-day stats or last 100 rides, its about how you doin right now.

I’m a big fan of profitability. In our Bet Sheets we discuss “beating/exceeding market expectations” but going into Cup week I prefer to identify jockeys that striking well in the month of October. In particular, ones that are striking much higher than their usual rate. With deep fields, and Sydney retaining a few of their top hoops through races like the Golden Eagle, a lot of jockeys get their chance to make a name for themselves in Cup week. It’s important to look beyond the usual stars. Lesser regarded jockeys can pinch races during Cup week at good odds. I take the data from October 1, focus on Victoria only and use “rides per win”, which I think paints a clearer picture.

Here's a breakdown of how many rides per winner for the Top Rating jockeys in October.

stats correct as at 10am 26-10-2025

THE RISING STAR

ETHAN BROWN stands out with a winner every 4.2 rides this month. That strike rate is more than 1.5 times his career strike rate (4.2 x 1.5 = 6.3, career is 1 in 6.6 rides). We can see through his last 100 rides (4.8) that he’s been on this trajectory possibly transforming into one of our top shelf riders. His ride on VON HAUKE at Moonee Valley on Saturday was a peach. He rated LIGHT INFANTRY MAN beautifully in front in the Cox Plate albeit the horse wasn’t good enough.

STAR

MARK ZAHRA is already considered one of the best in the land. He’s the big name you want to follow into Cup week bagging a winner every 4.9 rides, superior to his lifetime rate of 6.1.

THE APPRENTICE

LOGAN BATES rode a winner at Yarra Valley on Saturday then drove to Moonee Valley and led all the way on JIGSAW to bag a Listed win. So far in October, he’s ridden a winner every 5.3 rides, almost double his last 100 rate. Watch for trainers to use his claim during Cup week especially if we get any rain.

THE BIG GUNS

SHINN has been the best jockey in Victoria for some time booting home a winner every 4.2 rides (J Mac's career is 1 in 4.6) but his strike rate has dropped off a tad in October to one in 5.6.

JAMES MCDONALD bagged a treble at The Valley on Saturday including the Cox Plate on VIA SISTINA. That said, at a winner every 5.7 rides in October, he’s still below his amazing career rate of a winner every 4.6 rides.

D LANE is a Flemington specialist and the figures suggest he’s not too far off his usual rate.

LEFTFIELD

BEAU MERTENS has ridden in more races (62) than any jockey on that list. And the hard yards are paying off. He’s got a winner every 6.2 rides, almost 1.5 times his career rate. MERTENS almost stole the Caulfield Cup on RIVER OF STARS at $126 – wish he did! Group 1 winning jockeys LINDA MEECH and LUKE CURRIE are worth watching. They know how to win on the big stage and are tracking better than usual. I note CURRIE has 7 x 2nds this month, more than any hoop on the list. Had 2 of those converted to wins, he'd be second to Brown with a winner every 4.5 rides this month.

Of course, form comes and goes, and some punters will have vastly different methods to assessing jockeys. Certainly outside of Cup Week I look for more complex systems incorporating position in run and market expectations. But for me, Cup week is like a Grand Final or a State Of Origin, confidence and desire often supersedes ability. Maybe you don't agree? Whatever your method, enjoy the week and Happy Punting.

Nic.