Carnival Bets! 2025 Underwood Stakes

A key lead-up race to one of the major, long-distance Spring events is The Underwood Stakes over 1800m which takes place this Saturday under WFA conditions at Caulfield.

Commencing in 1924, the Underwood has become a pivotal stepping stone for horses looking to challenge for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup in 4 to 6 weeks. This is demonstrated through DUKE DE SESSA and KNIGHTS CHOICE which both contested the Underwood last year – then went on to win the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups respectively in the same prep.

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Trainer/Jockey Chat

Keep an eye out for Jockey Mark Zahra this weekend as he continues his hot streak of form. Currently striking at 24.6% this season already, he is well above his career average of 13.1%. In 61 rides in the 25/26 season, he has won 15 and placed 15 times.

Trainers Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr are also in a purple patch this season striking at 22.3% in 25/26. From 103 runners this season, they have 23 wins and 23 placings. Their career strike rate is 15.9%. They have nominated GOLDEN PATH and GLOBE for the Underwood this Saturday.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites are striking at a solid 36% since 2000 with 9 winners in that time. More recently, Favourites have enjoyed great success winning 3 of the last 5 Underwoods.

  
  

• While the Favourites have enjoyed great success, their value has not translated. A punter staking $100 on the Favourites each year since 2000 would be down $277. This is enhanced in a shorter period of time – since 2016, you would be down $47 placing a $100 on the Favourite each year.

  
  

• With the Favourites not paying too much, there has been plenty of value for punters searching for an upset. 8 of the last 10 winners that were not Favourite had an SP of $6.50 or more.

  
  

• A valuable trend evident this week is the Underwood winner’s last start performance – 8 of the last 9 winners finished in the quinella in their last start.

  
  

• Barriers 5 to 8 have been the most popular barrier positions for Underwood champions. 13 winners since 1995 (43%) have jumped from these middle gates which has been amplified further in the last decade with 5 winners (50%) jumping between 5 and 8.

  
  

• BUCKAROO’s 2024 win was the first time in 12 years that a winner jumped from Barrier 10 or wider.

  
  

• Settling in the top 4 has been extremely advantageous with 8 winners in the last decade finding themselves leading or on-pace at the 800m mark.

  
  

• Only one Mare has won in the past 39 years – BONNEVAL (2017).

  
  

• 8 of the last 11 winners have been 6YOs or older. The last 4 winners have been aged either 6YOs or 7YOs.

  
  

• Last year’s winner BUCKAROO won the Chelmsford Stakes prior to winning the Underwood.

  
  

• How good was that lucky Saddlecloth 1 of Mr Brightside last week! Back to the unlucky Saddlecloths this week – 4 and 9 have not won in the past 30 years.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, consider the following:

The stats indicate punters should be considering a Male contender that will have an SP of $6.50 or higher. His racing pattern should see him positioned near the front of the field and most importantly, coming into the race off strong recent form having finished either first or second at his most recent start.

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