NRL 2026 - Magic Round Preview

Here are the stats and predictions for the upcoming round of the NRL.

These are the notes I use for 2GB radio and other media gigs for NRL updates.

Sharks v Bulldogs

Cronulla lead the last five meetings 3 to 2 and enter this clash with a much stronger Magic Round profile. The Sharks sit 3 and 3 at the event while Canterbury are just 1 and 5, giving them one of the poorest records in Brisbane during this round.

The Dogs also carry a nasty trend into this matchup, losing their last 13 games at Suncorp against teams ranked above them on the ladder. That suggests they struggle when the class rises in Brisbane conditions.

TIP: Sharks -5.5

Rabbitohs v Dolphins

South Sydney were undefeated at Magic Round until last year and still hold a strong 5 and 1 record overall. The Dolphins are 2 and 1 at the event and continue to play an aggressive brand of football in Queensland.

Recent clashes between these clubs have produced points. Four of the last five meetings have gone above 50 total points and the Dolphins’ attack looks capable of opening this game up again if the tempo rises early.

TIP: Dolphins to Win / Dolphins 31–40 Points

Tigers v Sea Eagles

Manly lead the last five clashes 3 to 2, but both clubs have struggled badly at Magic Round. The Tigers are 2 and 4 while the Sea Eagles sit 1 and 5, equal worst overall at the event.

Despite that poor record, the matchup still favours Manly. They have the stronger side on paper and typically beat teams like the Tigers when they control field position. The concern is venue form with Manly losing their last five games at Suncorp.

TIP: Sea Eagles 13+

Roosters v Cowboys

North Queensland lead the last five clashes 3 to 2 and also own the stronger Magic Round profile at 4 and 2. The Roosters are sitting square at 3 and 3.

This shapes as one of the more open games of the weekend. Both teams are capable of fast starts and neither side has shown much interest in grinding football lately. The line looks inflated given recent history between the clubs.

TIP: Cowboys +14.5 / Over 55.5 Total Points

Eels v Storm

Melbourne are searching for just their second win after a brutal seven-game losing streak, but the matchup history remains heavily one-sided. The Storm have won the last seven against Parramatta and own the biggest win in Magic Round history, smashing the Eels 64 to 11.

That history suggests points if Melbourne click. Parramatta’s attack has also improved recently which brings team totals into play for both clubs.

TIP: Eels Over 22.5 Points / Storm Over 29.5 Points

Titans v Knights

Newcastle lead the last five clashes 3 to 2 and arrive with one of the strongest Magic Round records in the competition at 5 and 1, equal best overall. Gold Coast meanwhile are just 2 and 4.

The Knights have consistently handled the Brisbane conditions better and this looks like a strong scoring setup for them against a Titans defence that struggles when games become high tempo.

TIP: Knights -10.5 / Knights Over 33.5 Points

Warriors v Broncos

Brisbane have the strongest overall Magic Round profile in the NRL. They’re 5 and 1 with the best points differential of any club at the event. The Warriors meanwhile are just 2 and 4.

Despite those trends, recent clashes between the clubs have been tighter than expected with Brisbane leading the last five meetings only 3 to 2. The total also looks slightly high given how these games can tighten through the middle stages.

TIP: Warriors / Under 51.5 Total Points

Panthers v Dragons

Penrith come into the round at their shortest price of the season and own a strong 4 and 2 Magic Round record. The Dragons are 1 and 5 and statistically the worst defensive team in Magic Round history.

The concern with massive lines at Magic Round is how unpredictable the final 20 minutes can become once benches empty and fatigue kicks in. Penrith should dominate, but the number looks enormous.

TIP: Dragons +26.5 / Under 56.5 Total Points