Saturday Bets! 2025 Coolmore Stud Stakes

The feature sprint race on Derby Day this Saturday is the famed G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes raced over 1200m up the Flemington straight for the 3YOs under Set Weights.

Originally registered as the Ascot Vale Stakes – a race for 2YOs and first run in 1863 – it was changed to the Coolmore Stud Stakes in 1969 and switched to the Spring for the 3YOs. In 2006, it was made a G1 and moved to Derby Day. Today, the Coolmore is worth $2 million in prize money, acknowledging its importance as one of Australia’s premier sprints and its esteemed list of winners: MANIKATO (1978), CAMPAIGN KING (1985), ALINGHI (2004), SEPOY (2011) and MERCHANT NAVY (2017).

BEADMAN at Flemington. He has opened up on the third line of betting at $5.50 for the Coolmore Stud Stakes this Saturday on Derby Day.

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Ashley Morgan takes the reins as the in-form Jockey, exceeding market expectations by 58% in his last 100 rides. After winning the Roman Consul with HIDDEN MOTIVE and now taking him to the Coolmore, keep an eye on him at $26.

Chris Waller has a magnificent record in the Coolmore (see stats below) and is the in-form Trainer heading into this year’s race, surpassing market expectations by 47% in his last 100 runners. Good for BEIWACHT and SKYGLIDER.

DERBY DAY QUADDIE ANALYSIS

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have enjoyed great success in the Coolmore, winning 13 times in the past 30 years (43%). However, in recent years, that good form has dried up with only 2 Favourites winning in the past 11 years (18%).

  
  

• A good steady return would have been generated for the average punter who staked $100 each year on the Favourite in the Coolmore – a return of $670.

  
  

• While the Favourites have proven safe to back, there has been some value when they trip up. 4 winners in the past decade have won at double-digit odds – the last OZZMOSIS in 2023 at $18s.

  
  

• Coming up the famous Flemington straight places less emphasis on barrier draw, however, being further away from the crowd and grandstand seems beneficial. In the past 15 years, 9 winners (60%) have jumped from Barriers 8 to 15.

  
  

• This trend has been enhanced further in recent times – 6 winners have jumped from Barriers 8 – 15 in the past decade, and 4 winners have jumped from Barriers 8 – 13 in the past 5 years.

  
  

• The Flemington straight also produces a variety of different strategies, but we have seen a majority flash home – 5 of the last 9 winners have been positioned 7th, 8th or 9th at the 400m mark.

  
  

• Only 13 Fillies have won the Coolmore in the past 56 editions – a strike rate of 23%. However, 3 of the last 7 winners have been Fillies – the last IN SECRET in 2022.

  
  

• The last 2 winners of the Coolmore both came through the Roman Consul. The other popular races winners have raced in before the Coolmore is the Golden Rose – 3 winners since 2017 raced in the Sydney G1 before taking out the Coolmore.

  
  

• Coming in hot helps – 5 of the last 6 winners placed in their last start before the Coolmore. HOME AFFAIRS was the only one who did not – finishing 9th in The Everest before flashing home in the Coolmore in 2021.

  
  

• 12 of the last 17 winners have come out of NSW.

  
  

• Chris Waller is the Leading Trainer, winning 6 times in the past 12 years.

Get Nic Ashman's insights into this weekend's racing in Melbourne and Sydney via the latest episode of our Saturday Bets! podcast below.

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• Not the Favourite due to recent lack of success

• Jumping from Barrier 8 or wider

• Placed in their last start

Andy’s Tip: 10. BEADMAN $5.50

The Coolmore is always an open race and this edition is no different. The top three in the market are all worthy contenders, but maybe BEADMAN gets them. A second-place finish in the Roman Consul holds weight and also Barrier 8 which gives him options. It will be tight across the field, but I’ll side with the most in form Jockey/Trainer partnership in Shinn/Snowden to get it over the line.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 3. TENTYRIS $4

"TENTYRIS absolutely flew last start when he was allowed to build momentum. Looks a real straight horse. Will need luck from a slightly tricky gate but we've got the magical Zahra in the saddle."

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