Saturday Bets! 2025 Missile Stakes

The first group race of the new season in Sydney is the highlight at Royal Randwick this Saturday with the running of the G2 Missile Stakes over 1200m at Set Weights.

First run in 1978 and won by IDOL, the race has passed through every Sydney venue – Canterbury, Rosehill, Warwick Farm and now Randwick in its 47-year history while also elevating from the original distance of 1100m to 1200m in 2010. Famous winners include: LONHRO (2002), EDUARDO (2020) and first back-to-back winner CAMPAIGN KING (1987/88).

Trainer/Jockey Chat

Joe Pride is the Form Trainer heading into the Missile exceeding market expectations by a mammoth 42% in his last 100 runners and is 37% above his career strike rate. He has the favourite PRIVATE EYE.

The top Trainer/Jockey combo to take note of in the Missile is the Thompson/A.Collett partnership that is currently 33% above market expectations securing an impressive POT of 28.7%. They team up on WITH YOUR BLESSING.

Here are the historical stats and trends to help you land the winner of the 2025 edition:

• Favourites have a fantastic record in recent times with 8 wins in the past 15 years (53%) – including 4 of the last 6 winners.

  
  

• But backing Favourites has not yielded outstanding results – the average punter would only be up $95 from a $100 stake on Favourites every year since 2010.

  
  

• The top contenders in the market have dominated in this 15-year period with 13 winners jumping with SPs of $7 or less. Additionally, 10 of those winners jumped at $4.40 or less.

  
  

• BURBERO (2015) and HARD EMPIRE (2022) are the only double-digit odds winners in the past 15 years.

  
  

• Inside Barriers 1 – 4 have proved to be the sweet spot producing 16 winners in the past 30 years. This is emphasised further with 4 of the last 5 winners jumping from these gates.

  
  

• With a rain-affected track predicted, the 2 winners on a Heavy track in the last decade were leading coming around the turn on their way to victory.

  
  

• The Mares have a pretty handy record in the race with 4 wins in the past 9 years (44%) – the last I AM ME in 2023.

  
  

• The 4YOs and 5YOs have combined for 15 victories in the past 25 years (60%) – including 5 wins in the past 9 years.

  
  

• With the new season commencing, justifiably 10 of the last 15 winners have been 1UP – including 6 of the last 9 winners.

  
  

• Superstitious? Saddlecloth 9 has not won in the past 30 years.

  
  

To maximise your chances based on historical data, look for a runner who is:

• A top market contender with a SP $7 or under

• Jumping from an inside gate

• In the 4YO to 5YO range

Andy’s Tip: 4. GENERAL SALUTE $3.50

Highly regarded 5YO jumping from Barrier 1 at $3.50. Good over the distance and loves a bit of cut in the ground.

Nic Ashman's Tip: 7. ROMEO'S CHOICE $17

Not sure if PRIVATE EYE runs if the track stays Heavy - take note if you're playing early because the way deductions work, you'll get bent over. For mine, ROMEO'S CHOICE is airborne and fit plus his ratings aren't far off where you need ot be and he's likely to get a run well off the inside, which we expect to be inferior. GENERAL SALUTE would've been my tip had he drawn away from the rail. MORE PREDICTED TRACK PATTERNS, BEST BETS AND LONGSHOTS via TBF WORKS BURGER. YOU CAN GET A 7-DAY FREE TRIAL RIGHT NOW by clicking on the image BELOW